Between 2015 and 2024, household consumption of refined products in volume terms declined by 9.5%. Expenditure on fuels fell sharply (-6.3% over the period), with significant reallocation shifts between types of powertrain. Petrol consumption rose significantly (+47.8%), while diesel consumption fell sharply (-27.8%). Several factors explain the overall decline in fuel purchases over the period: the drop in the total distance travelled by households contributed -2.4 percentage points to the drop in fuel consumption and electrification of the fleet contributed -3.4 percentage points, while the restructuring of the combustion-engine-powered fleet (from diesel to petrol) contributed positively, by +4.2 percentage points, as petrol engines have higher per-kilometre fuel consumption than diesel engines for a given power level. Lastly, the improved efficiency of internal combustion engines contributed -4.8 points to the drop in fuel consumption over the period. At the same time, heating oil consumption fell sharply over the period (-34.4%), in the wake of the ban on the installation of new boilers using this fuel from July 2022.

Consumption of refined products is expected to be virtually stable in 2025 (+0.4%), as its underlying downward trend should be offset by the fall in Brent crude oil prices, which have temporarily stimulated consumption. For 2026, assuming a stable price per barrel, household consumption of refined products is likely to edge down by just over 1% on an annual average basis. Regarding fuels, the trend towards electrification of the car fleet is expected to continue at its average growth rate recorded over the last four years, while the other contributing factors are likely to maintain their average growth rate over the last decade. Heating oil consumption is set to fall at the average rate seen over the 2015-2024 period, after the two sharp declines observed in 2022 and 2023...