Moderate consolidation and renewed growth Economic Outlook - december 2025
Consumer price
The year-on-year variation in consumer prices in France has fallen back sharply over the past two years, from over +6% in early 2023 to less than +1% in February 2025. Since then, it has hovered around +1% and was still at that level in November (+0.9%). Since the start of the year, inflation has remained significantly lower in France than in other European countries, due to three main factors. Firstly, wage growth dynamics have been less pronounced in France, holding back the prices of services. Secondly, the timetable for setting regulated electricity tariffs led to a significant decline in prices starting in February 2025. Finally, price competition between telecommunications operators led to a sharp drop in prices during 2025, in proportions comparable to those observed upon the arrival of the fourth major operator in the 2010s. However, this price war ended in September and is therefore no longer contributing to low inflation. In addition, food inflation, which had stagnated below +1% between spring 2024 and spring 2025, rose slightly to +1.4% year on year in November. This increase was driven by the introduction in March of the tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in the framework of the financial laws for 2025, by the surge in tropical commodity prices and by the passing on of increases in producer prices for non-fresh food products over the last few months, particularly for meat and eggs. Overall, headline inflation is expected to average +1.0% per annum in 2025, after +2.0% in 2024 and +4.9% in 2023, which would be the lowest rate seen since 2020...
Conjoncture in France
Paru le :19/12/2025
