The US administration’s announcements of tariff hikes are weighing heavily on the outlook for global growth and have led to a marked fall in commodity prices, amplified by the rise in the euro. In particular, the euro-denominated price of oil had plunged by around 20% at the end of April compared with Q1 2025. Downward pressure remains strong: there should be a surplus in the global oil market by the end of 2025, especially as supply is likely to be boosted by the announced increase in production by OPEC+ countries. Like oil, the euro-denominated prices of most industrial commodities were lower in the spring. On the other hand, the prices of certain food commodities remain high, with exceptional climate events still adversely affecting production...