At the start of 2025, global activity was hit by the resurgence in trade uncertainties, resulting in a mixed picture. In the United States, activity contracted in Q1 (-0.1%). This fall was mainly due to a surge in imports in anticipation of the tariff hikes and appears to be partly technical, while private domestic demand remained firm. Conversely, the same anticipation stimulated activity in Europe, both in the Eurozone (+0.6%) and in the UK (+0.7%), driven by dynamic exports and an upturn in industrial production. Within the Eurozone, performances remained contrasting: Spain maintained sustained momentum (+0.6%), France posted a limited increase in activity (+0.1%), and the anticipation of US tariff hikes mainly benefited Italy and Germany, the countries most exposed to the United States, where activity accelerated sharply (+0.3% and +0.4% respectively). In China, growth remained at an annual rate of around 5%, half of which was driven by foreign trade, while domestic demand remained sluggish...