Since 2019, the price index for food commodities imported into France has almost doubled as a result of two separate inflationary episodes. The first was in 2021 and 2022, and was triggered by the recovery of the global economy after the pandemic, followed by the energy shock caused by the invasion of Ukraine, and mainly affected the price of cereals and oilseeds. The second, in 2024, was almost entirely driven by tropical commodities, particularly cocoa and coffee, whose prices have quadrupled in just a few years to hit historic highs. However, these two episodes did not have the same impact on consumer prices for non-fresh food products, which rose by 20% between early 2022 and mid-2023, but by less than 2% between mid-2023 and May 2025.

This difference reflects the low proportion of tropical products (coffee, cocoa and tea) in the household non-fresh food basket, which is around 5% (7% using the broadest definition). Furthermore, while world prices pass through quickly and almost entirely to import prices in France for cocoa, this is much less the case for coffee. This contrast is evident in recent consumer price trends. The consumer price index (CPI) for cocoa-based products rose sharply between mid-2023 and May 2025 (+22.0%), while the increase was slightly more moderate for coffee (+12.4%), although it was still more dynamic than for other non-fresh food products.

The recent price surge in these products echoes those for other non-fresh food products over the period 2022 to 2023, during which the dynamics were roughly similar, with the CPI rising 17.4% for cocoa products and 21.1% for tea and coffee. These figures are close to the rise in the CPI for all non-fresh food products (+19.9%).

Finally, according to the modelling used in this report, just over two thirds of the increases in tropical commodity prices in 2024 have already passed through to consumer prices, predominantly through price hikes in April and May 2025. Assuming prices remain high, the cost of these products is likely to rise further between now and the end of the year. Lastly, soaring tropical commodity prices have a very limited impact on the price of hot drinks served in bars and cafés, due to the predominance of labour costs in their cost structure...