Employment Estimates

Sources
Dernière mise à jour le : 22/09/2017

Présentation de l'opération

Organisme producteur :

Insee. Direction des statistiques démographiques et sociales (DSDS)

Type d'opération :

Synthesis of administrative sources (URSSAF, Pôle emploi, DADS, etc.) and company surveys (ACEMO) on employment.

Objectifs :

Estimation of employment levels and changes in different business sectors, consistent with different levels of aggregation.

Thèmes abordés :

Employment

Champ de l'opération

Champ géographique :

Annually :
Metropolitan France and overseas departments – excluding Mayotte (regional, departmental and employment area breakdown)

Quarterly:
Metropolitan France and overseas departments – excluding Mayotte (regional and departmental breakdown)

Champ(s) statistique(s) couvert(s) :

Annually:
total employment (paid employees and self-employed).

Quarterly:
payroll employment.

Caractéristiques techniques

Périodicité de l'opération :

Annually:
- provisional estimates in the autumn N+1, then in March N+2 concerning the validity on december 31st N ; definitive estimates in March N+3 concerning the validity on december 31st N ; levels France excepting Mayotte, regional, departmental and employment areas (except for provisional estimates).

Quarterly:
-two times per quarter at the national level (45 days after the end of the quarter for the flash estimate and 70 days after the end of quarter for the second estimate). One estimate per quarter at the local level, 90 days after the end of quarter.

Historique :

The employment estimates methodology has changed over time.

Since the 2007 results, the final annual employment estimates are based on "ESTEL" (Localised Employment Estimates) which synthesizes administrative sources. Theses sources are based on the DADS (Annual Declarations of Social Data) for paiyroll employment (private sector, public sector and private individuals' employees) and based on of Acoss and MSA for selfemployed persons.

This new ESTEL scheme clearly takes account of people holding multiple jobs by selecting the person in his or her main job, and providing employment estimates both at the workplace and at the place of residence.

Méthodologie :

Methodology of Employment Estimates until 2006:

Employment Estimates was based on the general population censuses for levels of employment and, between two censuses, on administrative sources or enterprise’s surveys for employment changes from one year to another or from one quarter to another.

Due to the transition from general censuses to annual census surveys in 2004 it was not possible any more to based employment estimates on the census results.


Methodology of the annual Estimations of employment from the year 2007:

Since the 2007 results, the final annual employment estimates are based on "ESTEL" (Localised Employment Estimates) which synthesizes administrative sources. Theses sources are based on the DADS (Annual Declarations of Social Data) for paiyroll employment (private sector, public sector and private individuals' employees) and based on of Acoss and MSA for selfemployed persons.
Over the period uncovered by the ESTEL data (the last few years), provisional annual estimates are elaborated based on administrative sources faster available , most of them already integrated in quarterly estimates.


Methodology of the quarterly Estimations;

The quarterly estimations are propped up in level on the annual estimations until the year of the last provisional estimation. Beyond, quarterly growth rates are applied to the last annual levels.

The flash estimate, published about 45 days after the end of the quarter,  is mainly based on calibration models estimated by DARES (statistical service of the Ministry of Labor) and INSEE, using data from the ACEMO survey (labour force activity and employment conditions). Pairoll employment Flash estimate 45 days after the end of the quarter is based on Acemo survey data (from Dares) and Insee entrepreneurs consumer survey data.The second estimate of payroll employment published 70 days after the end of the quarter is drawn up from different sources:
- declarations of social contributions made to the URSSAFs (social security contribution collection offices), either in the form of “bordereaux récapitulatifs de cotisations” (BRC) or simplified nominative declarations, namely “déclarations sociales nominatives” (DSN);
- payroll files for civil servants;
- declarations of social contributions collected by the agricultural social-security mutual fund (Mutualité Sociale Agricole, or MSA);
- declarations of private individual employers from three administrative requirements: simplified nominative declaration (DNS), universal employment service check (chèque emploi service universel, CESU) and childcare allowance ( prestation d'accueil du jeune enfant, PAJE);
- the monthly declarations that temporary employment agencies send to Pôle emploi, which have been gradually replaced by “déclarations sociales nominatives” (DSN) since mid-2016.
In private sector excluding temporary employment, BRCs and DSNs are processed by the central agency of social security organisations, ACOSS, within the SEQUOIA system. On the civil service scope, INSEE processes the BRCs and DSNs within the Épure system, as well as the civil service payroll files (which were previously integrated into the Siasp system). MSA data are also processed by INSEE via the Épure system. The declarations about private individuals' employees are processed throuh the system for information on private individuals' employees set up by INSEE. Finally, the monthly declarations or the DSNs of the temporary empoyment agencies are processed by DARES.

Voir aussi :

Documentation méthodologique