Employment Estimates

Sources
Dernière mise à jour le : 24/01/2017

Présentation de l'opération

Organisme producteur :

Insee. Direction des statistiques démographiques et sociales (DSDS)

Type d'opération :

Synthesis of administrative sources (URSSAF, Pôle emploi, DADS, etc.) and company surveys (ACEMO) on employment.

Objectifs :

Estimation of employment levels and changes in different business sectors, consistent with different levels of aggregation.

Thèmes abordés :

Employment

Champ de l'opération

Champ géographique :

France (metropolitan France and overseas departments): population by sex, age and marital status.
- Metropolitan France: population by sex, age and marital status.
- Regions and Departments: population by sex and age group.


Champ(s) statistique(s) couvert(s) :

Annually:

total employment (paid employees and self-employed).

Quarterly:

paid employment in non-agricultural market sectors and, at national level, private paid employment in non-market sectors.

Caractéristiques techniques

Périodicité de l'opération :

Annually:

- provisional estimates in September N+1 then in  March N+2 concerning the validity on december 31st  N ; definitive estimates in March N+3 concerning the validity on december 31st  N (levels metropolitan France, regional, departmental and employment area (except for the temporary estimates).

Quarterly:

-three times per quarter at the national level (45 days after the end of the quarter for the flash estimate, 70 days after the end of quarter for the first estimate and 160 days for the revised estimate). One estimate by quarter at the local level, 90 days after the end of quarter.

Historique :

Employment estimates have been providing employment series since 1954. Their methodology has changed over time, in order to take account of the availability of new sources (data from UNEDIC becoming exhaustive for all private-sector establishments in 1968, collected until 2010 ; URSSAF data being statistically exploitable since the end of the 1990s, etc.) and the development of the statistical observation scheme (end of exhaustive population censuses after the 1999 edition and transition to annual census surveys from 2004).

Starting in 2009, for employment estimate on december 31st 2007 an important methodological modification was made with the transition to the "ESTEL" (Localised Employment Estimates) scheme in order to provide annual employment estimates. This scheme is based on the use of administrative sources in levels, including the "full-format" DADS (Annual Declarations of Social Data) for paid employment : strictly speaking, DADS are supplemented by data derived from the System for Information on Civil Service Employees (SIASP) and data from the files of employees of private individual employers.

This new ESTEL scheme clearly takes account of people holding multiple jobs by selecting the person in his or her main job, and providing employment estimates both at the workplace and at the place of residence.

Méthodologie :

Methodology of Employment Estimates until 2006:

Employment Estimates was based on the general population censuses for levels of employment and, between two censuses, on administrative sources or enterprises surveys for employment changes from one year to another or from one quarter to another.

Due to the transition from general censuses to annual census surveys in 2004 it was not possible any more to based employment estimates on the census results.

Methodology of the annual Estimations of employment from the year 2007:

The definitive annual estimate are established from the scheme Estel which supplies employment estimate on December 31. The employment by business sector is decomposed until the level A88 of the NAF rév. 2. The data for agricultural sector result from the MSA. On the non-market sector, the sources of the employment estimates are the System for Information on Civil Service Employees (SIASP) and data from the files of employees of private individual employers. The source for the self-employed results from Acoss and from MSA after reprocessing the computation "Non-salariés" of the Insee.

For the provisional estimations, the source Epure replaces the DADS source on the market sector. The data resulting from Human resources departments of large national enterprises (GEN) and the number of temporary workers of the agencies of temporary work collected by Pole emploi and reprocessed by Dares are also used.

Methodology of the quarterly Estimations;

The quarterly estimations are propped up in level on the annual estimations until the year of the last provisional estimation. Beyond, quarterly growth rates are applied to the last annual levels.

The flash estimate published 45 days after the end of quarter is based on statistics models from ACEMO survey of enterprises (carried out by Dares). The employment estimate 70 days after the end of quarter is based on data Epure for the major part of the market sector. The data of Dares on the temporary workers and Human resources departments of the GEN are also used.

Voir aussi :

Documentation méthodologique