By the end of 2025, the restructuring of foreign trade, underway since the start of the year and the increase in US tariffs imposed by the new administration, continued. After a very turbulent start to the year, global trade returned to a steadier pace. It rose sharply in Q1 and Q2 (+1.4% and +1.3% respectively), driven by expectations of tariff increases among exporters worldwide who rushed to ship their goods to the United States, before stagnating in the second half of the year (-0.2% and +0.1% in Q3 and Q4). Nevertheless, over 2025 as a whole, global trade accelerated by +3.6%, after +3.3% in 2024. The momentum was mainly driven by Asia, where intra-Asian trade remained very buoyant, while China continued to lower its export prices and gain market share. The buoyancy in Asia more than offset the decline in US imports in the second half of the year, and the reduction in the US trade deficit was mainly at the expense of Europe. In 2025, foreign trade had a negative impact on growth in the euro area (contribution of -0.6 percentage points for growth of +1.5%). European exports (+2.2%) are caught between the appreciation of the euro, US tariffs and Chinese competition, while imports (+3.7%) are driven by the recovery in domestic demand, particularly investment. Looking specifically at the four largest economies in the euro area, the picture is even less flattering: in 2025, foreign trade dragged growth down by -0.9 percentage points to +0.9%, weighed down by sluggish exports (+1.0%), mainly due to Germany’s poor performance, with its overseas sales falling back for the third consecutive year (-0.3% after -1.9% in 2024 and -0.9% in 2023)...