Inflation rekindled and growth weakened Economic Outlook - march 2026
Household income
In Q4 2025, household gross disposable income (GDI) shrank slightly (-0.1% after remaining stable in Q3). Earned income continued to slow gradually (+0.2% after +0.3% and +0.4% in Q3 and Q2 respectively), in the wake of payroll trends in the non-agricultural market sectors. In these sectors, employment contracted in Q4 following two quarters of stability (-0.1%), while nominal wages rose modestly, as in the previous quarter (+0.3%). Wealth income fell more sharply than in the previous quarter (-1.3% after -0.5% in Q3): property income dipped slightly in Q4 due to the rise in property tax; income from financial investments (interest and dividends) continued to weaken (-1.5%), mirroring the trend in net interest received by households. Interest rates on regulated savings accounts fell from 1st August 2025, while the interest paid on outstanding mortgage loans continues to rise, as the interest rates on new mortgages are higher than on those maturing. Conversely, social benefits showed strong growth (+0.8% after +0.6% in Q3), particularly unemployment insurance benefits, while social security and tax contributions continued to rise (+1.1% after +1.3% in Q3), largely due to the mechanics of income tax and, to a lesser extent, the differential contribution on high incomes (CDHR), the receipts from which were nevertheless disappointing. All in all, as the household consumption deflator rose by 0.1% at the end of the year, after +0.3% in the previous quarter, household purchasing power continued to shrink (-0.2% after -0.3% in Q3)...
Conjoncture in France
Paru le :27/03/2026
