This article offers an approach incorporating latency into the process for evaluating long-term mortality and into its economic valuation, following a temporary impact. It is applied to the effects of COVID-19 activity restrictions, in the spring of 2020, on ambient air pollution in France. These effects are evaluated in terms of Life Years Gained (LYG) and in monetary terms for two air pollution indicators. This approach is compared to a standard estimate on the basis of difference. It gives results that are lower by a factor of 3.7 to 5.5 for LYG and, on account of the additional effect of discounting, gives an economic valuation that is lower by a factor of 4.7 to 6.9. These results show that an adapted valuation of the long-term health benefits, then their translation into monetary terms, is essential in order to compare the long-term consequences of temporary exogenous impacts or policies.

Citation: Chanel, O. (2022). Impact of COVID-19 Activity Restrictions on Air Pollution: Methodological Considerations in the Economic Valuation of the Long-Term Effects on Mortality. Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, 534-35, 103–118 (First published online: May 2022).
doi: 10.24187/ecostat.2022.534.2081