World in turnmoil, growth losing steam Economic Outlook - march 2025

 

Conjoncture in France
Paru le :Paru le21/03/2025
Conjoncture in France- March 2025
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Focus – Since the health crisis, fluctuations in corporate margin rates have been due mainly to the energy and transport services

On average over 2024, the margin rate of non-financial corporations was a little more than one point above its pre-health crisis level, although this masked some significant disparities between branches of activity. This rise is due mainly to the energy and transport services branches, while the margin rate of other market branches (excluding financial and real estate services) was very close to its 2019 level. These two branches have also contributed very significantly to quarterly fluctuations in margin rate since the health crisis, due to the volatility of the price of electricity and, to a lesser extent, the cost of sea freight. Indeed, in these two branches, variations in these two market prices are quickly passed on to export prices, ultimately affecting value added prices and therefore the margins of companies in these two branches. By mid-2025, the margin rate for these two branches is expected to decline, contributing -0.4 points to change in the margin rate for all companies. On the one hand, the fall in freight prices since autumn 2024 is likely to be passed on to the value added price of transport services in H1 2025. On the other hand, although electricity prices on the European market were still high at the beginning of 2025, thus boosting export prices in the energy branch and hence their margin rate, the value added price of this branch is, conversely, significantly affected by the drop in the regulated sales tariff in February 2025...

Conjoncture in France

Paru le :21/03/2025