World in turnmoil, growth losing steam Economic Outlook - march 2025
Household consumption and investment
In Q4 2024, consumption remained relatively dynamic (+0.3% after +0.6%). In services, consumption was virtually unchanged (-0.1% after +0.8%), although purchases in recreational services declined sharply, in reaction to the sales of tickets for the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games, which were recorded in the national accounts in the summer. In contrast, after coming to a standstill in the summer, probably due to the crowding-out effects associated with the Games, consumption in accommodation-catering and transport services was dynamic in the autumn (+0.4% and +0.9% respectively), especially air transport. Consumption of goods continued to pick up, although at a slightly slower pace than in the previous quarter (+0.2% after +0.4%). Food purchases, which are still 6 points below their 2019 level, continued the increase that had begun in the summer, bolstered by disinflation for these products. Automobile purchases in particular rebounded strongly (+2.9% after -2.2%), thus contributing over 0.1 points to the overall increase in consumption in Q4. While the reduction in the bonus for the purchase of an electric vehicle at the beginning of December may have tempered purchases at the very end of the year, households seem to have anticipated the entry into force in 2025 of other measures that could raise vehicle prices (tightening of the European CAFE standard on vehicle emissions). However, purchases of automobiles are still below their 2019 level and intentions to buy a car declined overall in the course of 2024. Meanwhile, energy consumption edged down: while autumn was colder than in the previous two years, it also followed a relatively cool Q3, especially in September, when consumption soared. All in all, at the end of 2024, gas and electricity consumption remained four points below the 2019 level, whereas they were six points below at the end of 2023...
Conjoncture in France
Paru le :21/03/2025