Économie et Statistique n° 481-482 - 2015Microsimulation applied to fiscal and social policies
Projections of APA costs and the characteristics of its beneficiaries through to 2040 using the Destinie model
Confronted with the ageing of their population, developed countries expect to have to provide support to a growing number of dependent elderly individuals, and it is necessary to anticipate the cost of caring for these individuals. The Destinie pension microsimulation model was extended in 2011 in order to enable this type of projection, in the context of a proposed dependency reform. For this exercise, microsimulation presents the advantage of simulating career paths at the individual level. This makes it possible to project aggregates, taking into account the variation over time of the distribution of individual characteristics. This also allows complex (nonlinear) scales to be taken into account, requiring calculation at the individual level. This article presents the method used in developing this dependency module and the main results from the exercise conducted in 2011, supplemented by a less favourable macroeconomic variant than the one used at the time. An initial series of results concerns the characterization of the dependent population and the presence of potential caregivers, in three dependency prevalence scenarios. In the second phase, the financial projections for the Personalized Autonomy Allowance (Allocation Personnalisée d'Autonomie: APA) are presented, which cross-reference the three prevalence scenarios with two macroeconomic hypotheses and two indexing hypotheses from this benefit table. The total APA amount would represent between 0.54 and 0.71 points of GDP in 2040, depending on the level of optimism of this scenario, against 0.4 points of GDP in 2010. The portion of this amount to be paid by local authorities would represent between 0.29 and 0.51 points of GDP, against 0.27 points in 2010, with the remaining cost being payable by households.