Économie et Statistique n° 481-482Microsimulation applied to fiscal and social policies

Economie et Statistique
Paru le : 17/12/2015
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Modelling career paths with the Prisme model

Caroline Berteau-Rapin, Paul Beurnier et Émilie Denayrolles

The CNAV microsimulation model, Prisme (Projection des Retraites Individuelles : Simulation, Modélisation, Evaluation - The Projection of Individual Pensions: simulation, modelling, evaluating), was created in 2004. This model responded to a need to evaluate the effects of pension reforms, both from a financial standpoint for the system and from the standpoint of the insured individual, through the changes in pension amount or in the age of retirement. The numerous nonlinearities resulting from the calculation method of the standard national pension scheme made it necessary to conduct evaluations based on a large number of individual situations, which is the very essence of microsimulation. Prisme is based on CNAV management files which chart the entire career of people insured under the standard scheme, and increasingly under other schemes as well. It is based on a 1/20th sampling of nearly 5 million individuals. The "career" module serves to model the activity statuses of each individual for each year and each projected quarter. It therefore makes it possible to simulate the share of the population between non-active and active persons, and among active persons, between employees under the general scheme, employees from other schemes (aligned or non-aligned), the unemployed, employees on sick leave, and invalids. Since 2009, these situations are modelled by a sequence of logistical equations, estimated on career transitions from 2005 to 2007. They are divided by gender, by year-on-year age groups and place of birth. An annual wage is then attributed to individuals for whom a transfer from salaried activity to the standard scheme is assigned.Thus the “career” module makes it possible to precisely simulate the career paths of individuals and to estimate the conditions of their retirement (retirement date, duration of insurance, pension plan amount, etc.). Monitoring indicators of projected careers are presented in this paper and therefore make it possible to valia

Economie et Statistique
No 481-482
Paru le : 17/12/2015