Informations Rapides ·
23 October 2026 · n° 258
In October 2026, the outlook for housing starts has continued to decrease sharply
in real-estate development Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - October 2026
In October 2026, developers’ opinion regarding the outlook for housing starts has worsened markedly again. This further decline has affected both the balance relating to dwellings intended for sale and the balance relating to social housing starts. Developers are once again more pessimistic than in the previous quarter regarding the outlook for changes in their clients’ financing capacity, as well as the past evolution of the average down payment by applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling.
In October 2026, developers’ opinion regarding the outlook for housing starts has worsened markedly again. This further decline has affected both the balance relating to dwellings intended for sale and the balance relating to social housing starts. Developers are once again more pessimistic than in the previous quarter regarding the outlook for changes in their clients’ financing capacity, as well as the past evolution of the average down payment by applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling.
tableauNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
| New dwelling demand tendency | Expected housing starts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-Q4 | -42.6 | -26.8 |
| 2026-Q3 | -37.2 | -19.5 |
| 2026-Q2 | -34.0 | -13.5 |
| 2026-Q1 | -27.8 | -18.7 |
| 2025-Q4 | -29.1 | -12.8 |
| 2025-Q3 | -29.6 | -22.3 |
| 2025-Q2 | -32.1 | -17.4 |
| 2025-Q1 | -36.8 | -28.9 |
| 2024-Q4 | -47.5 | -27.4 |
| 2024-Q3 | -46.1 | -34.8 |
| 2024-Q2 | -53.3 | -33.6 |
| 2024-Q1 | -51.8 | -39.3 |
| 2023-Q4 | -51.5 | -39.3 |
| 2023-Q3 | -50.2 | -34.4 |
| 2023-Q2 | -42.6 | -29.8 |
| 2023-Q1 | -34.0 | -21.2 |
| 2022-Q4 | -27.4 | -18.5 |
| 2022-Q3 | -20.5 | -10.7 |
| 2022-Q2 | -14.5 | -4.9 |
| 2022-Q1 | -6.5 | 3.7 |
| 2021-Q4 | 0.0 | -4.9 |
| 2021-Q3 | -0.5 | -3.9 |
| 2021-Q2 | 1.3 | -3.2 |
| 2021-Q1 | -16.5 | -4.6 |
| 2020-Q4 | -16.0 | -8.7 |
| 2020-Q3 | -13.1 | -6.2 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | -5.4 | -7.1 |
| 2019-Q4 | -7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2019-Q3 | -12.2 | -10.5 |
| 2019-Q2 | -20.0 | -9.1 |
| 2019-Q1 | -25.7 | -15.4 |
| 2018-Q4 | -19.3 | -6.1 |
| 2018-Q3 | -15.8 | -9.9 |
| 2018-Q2 | -11.1 | -9.0 |
| 2018-Q1 | -7.2 | -8.7 |
| 2017-Q4 | -3.9 | -1.6 |
| 2017-Q3 | -2.8 | -0.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | -3.4 | 2.4 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.9 | 1.2 |
| 2016-Q4 | -5.1 | 0.1 |
| 2016-Q3 | -9.7 | 1.6 |
| 2016-Q2 | -11.9 | -6.4 |
| 2016-Q1 | -26.1 | -3.4 |
| 2015-Q4 | -26.0 | -11.9 |
| 2015-Q3 | -28.1 | -13.2 |
| 2015-Q2 | -36.7 | -18.0 |
| 2015-Q1 | -46.0 | -27.9 |
| 2014-Q4 | -51.8 | -31.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -53.3 | -36.5 |
| 2014-Q2 | -45.7 | -23.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | -44.4 | -21.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | -42.1 | -23.5 |
| 2013-Q3 | -42.8 | -24.7 |
| 2013-Q2 | -47.7 | -30.4 |
| 2013-Q1 | -47.7 | -30.1 |
| 2012-Q4 | -47.7 | -25.9 |
| 2012-Q3 | -42.1 | -29.2 |
| 2012-Q2 | -33.6 | -18.3 |
| 2012-Q1 | -24.6 | -8.4 |
| 2011-Q4 | -22.7 | -7.5 |
| 2011-Q3 | -20.8 | 5.9 |
| 2011-Q2 | -15.1 | 1.7 |
| 2011-Q1 | -10.2 | -0.3 |
| 2010-Q4 | -0.3 | 1.5 |
| 2010-Q3 | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| 2010-Q2 | -8.5 | 4.4 |
| 2010-Q1 | -3.9 | 2.0 |
| 2009-Q4 | -8.6 | 5.9 |
| 2009-Q3 | -10.5 | -0.9 |
| 2009-Q2 | -13.8 | -13.5 |
| 2009-Q1 | -26.7 | -14.6 |
| 2008-Q4 | -33.1 | -23.1 |
| 2008-Q3 | -13.4 | -8.9 |
| 2008-Q2 | -13.7 | 1.5 |
| 2008-Q1 | -7.0 | 1.7 |
| 2007-Q4 | -1.8 | 6.4 |
| 2007-Q3 | 3.1 | 10.6 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.4 | 7.4 |
| 2007-Q1 | 9.2 | 10.0 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was cancelled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was cancelled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source : INSEE – French business survey on real-estate development.
The outlook for housing starts intended for sale has decreased again sharply
In October 2026, the balance of opinion regarding prospects for housing starts has dropped again. The balance for dwellings intended for sale has declined markedly and has moved away from its long-term average; the one associated with rental housing (mainly social) has fallen back and has departed from its long-term average.
The share of developers considering the study of new building programs with architects or design offices has declined slightly, after three consecutive quarters of stability, and has drifted away from its long-term average.
Developers are once again more pessimistic than in the previous quarter regarding the demand for housing addressed to them. The corresponding balance has continued to decline and has reached its lowest level in two years. It stands well below its long-term average.
The balance of opinion on unsold dwellings is stable, well above its long-term average.
Real estate developers are more pessimistic anew than in the previous quarter regarding the evolution of their clients' financing capacity
In October 2026, developers’ opinion regarding the outlook for changes in their clients’ financing capacity has deteriorated: the corresponding balance has fallen back and has drifted away from its long-term average.
The balance of opinion relating to the evolution of the average down payment by applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling over the past three months has resumed the decline that began in January 2026, and has reached its lowest level since January 2015. It has moved further away from its long-term average.
The balance of opinion relating to the change in the expected average price of housing put up for sale has also declined again and has reached its lowest level since April 2015, standing well below its long-term average.
tableauReal-estate development economic outlook
| Average* | Jan. 26 | Apr. 26 | July 26 | Oct. 26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | -13 | -28 | -34 | -37 | -43 |
| Expected housing starts | -9 | -19 | -14 | -20 | -27 |
| for sale | -18 | -27 | -20 | -35 | -41 |
| for rent housing (mainly social housing) | 1 | -9 | -5 | 1 | -8 |
| Companies considering the study of new programs ** | 62 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 52 |
| Unsold dwelling stock | -25 | -10 | -5 | -10 | -10 |
| Housing average price for sale | 6 | -10 | -12 | -15 | -24 |
| Past changes in applicants’ down payments | -18 | -17 | -21 | -21 | -26 |
| Financing capacity | -21 | -26 | -39 | -35 | -39 |
- * Average since July 1991.
- ** Share of companies, in % of answers, SA.
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development – INSEE.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 25 September and 20 October 2026. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 26 January 2027 at 12:00 pm.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 25 September and 20 October 2026. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 26 January 2027 at 12:00 pm.