Informations Rapides · 22 October 2026 · n° 257

In October 2026, industrials have revised their investments upwards  Quarterly business survey (goods-producing industries) - October 2026

In October 2026, business leaders in manufacturing industry are less optimistic than in the previous quarter about the expected change in demand over the next three months. Moreover, the balance of opinion on expected investment over the next three months has slightly increased again, while that on general prospects for changes in hourly wages has fallen back. Finally, they have revised upwards their judgement on the change in their investments for 2026, and have delivered an optimistic first estimate for 2027.

In October 2026, the balances of opinion on the expected change in demand, both global and foreign, have fallen back. Both nonetheless remain above their long-term average. As for past changes, the associated balance for global demand has rebounded and has moved away from its average. The one on foreign demand has slightly increased for the fifth consecutive quarter and has reached its highest level since October 2022, markedly above its average.

The balance of opinion on the expected change in investment over the next three months (now seasonally adjusted) has increased for the third consecutive quarter, more slightly this quarter. It has moved away from its average.

The share of industrial companies at the limit of their production capacity is stable in October 2026: 42% estimate that they would not be able to increase their production with their current means if they received more orders. This share remains markedly above its average. At the same time, the share of companies that consider their production capacities sufficient given the expected change in orders over the coming months has decreased and has moved even a little more away from its long-term average. The production capacity utilisation rate is stable: at 82%, it stands one point below its average level.

Between July and October 2026, the proportion of business leaders reporting hiring difficulties is stable at 38%. This share stands above its long-term average.

In October 2026, business leaders report, on average, that their selling prices have almost stopped increasing over the last three months (+0.1% after +1.5% in July). For the next three months, they anticipate a very slight increase (+0.2%).

The balance of opinion on general prospects for changes in hourly wages in the manufacturing industry has fallen back this quarter. It remains well below its long-term average.

The balance on the cash-flow situation of industrial enterprises has fallen back in October and has moved away from its average.

In the manufacturing industry, more business leaders in October 2026 than in April 2026 consider that their investments will increase in 2026 compared to 2025. The associated balance of opinion has been revised upwards in all sub-sectors except for “other industries”, where it has slightly decreased. The balance has been particularly revised upwards in the manufacturing of transport equipment.

In October 2026, industrials have delivered an optimistic first judgement on the expected change in their investments between 2026 and 2027: the associated balance of opinion for 2027 is higher than the one envisioned for 2026 a year prior. This greater optimism concerns all of the sub-sectors.