Informations Rapides ·
24 July 2026 · n° 180
In July 2026, the outlook for housing starts has fallen back sharply in real-estate
development Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - July 2026
In July 2026, developers’ opinion regarding the outlook for housing starts has worsened markedly anew. This downturn comes from dwellings intended for sale, while the balance relating to social housing starts has rebounded. However, developers are less pessimistic than in the previous quarter regarding the outlook for changes in their clients’ financing capacity, as well as the past evolution of the average down payment by applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling.
The seasonal adjustment factors and the parameters of the synthetic indicators were updated in July 2026, as usual at this time of year. As a result, all previously published results for this survey have been revised. These revisions are minor and do not alter the interpretation of the economic outlook.
In July 2026, developers’ opinion regarding the outlook for housing starts has worsened markedly anew. This downturn comes from dwellings intended for sale, while the balance relating to social housing starts has rebounded. However, developers are less pessimistic than in the previous quarter regarding the outlook for changes in their clients’ financing capacity, as well as the past evolution of the average down payment by applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling.
tableauNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
| New dwelling demand tendency | Expected housing starts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-Q3 | -35.0 | -20.8 |
| 2026-Q2 | -34.0 | -13.5 |
| 2026-Q1 | -27.8 | -18.7 |
| 2025-Q4 | -29.1 | -12.8 |
| 2025-Q3 | -29.6 | -22.3 |
| 2025-Q2 | -32.1 | -17.4 |
| 2025-Q1 | -36.8 | -28.9 |
| 2024-Q4 | -47.5 | -27.4 |
| 2024-Q3 | -46.1 | -34.8 |
| 2024-Q2 | -53.3 | -33.6 |
| 2024-Q1 | -51.8 | -39.3 |
| 2023-Q4 | -51.5 | -39.3 |
| 2023-Q3 | -50.2 | -34.4 |
| 2023-Q2 | -42.6 | -29.8 |
| 2023-Q1 | -34.0 | -21.2 |
| 2022-Q4 | -27.4 | -18.5 |
| 2022-Q3 | -20.5 | -10.7 |
| 2022-Q2 | -14.5 | -4.9 |
| 2022-Q1 | -6.5 | 3.7 |
| 2021-Q4 | 0.0 | -4.9 |
| 2021-Q3 | -0.5 | -3.9 |
| 2021-Q2 | 1.3 | -3.2 |
| 2021-Q1 | -16.5 | -4.6 |
| 2020-Q4 | -16.0 | -8.7 |
| 2020-Q3 | -13.1 | -6.2 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | -5.4 | -7.1 |
| 2019-Q4 | -7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2019-Q3 | -12.2 | -10.5 |
| 2019-Q2 | -20.0 | -9.1 |
| 2019-Q1 | -25.7 | -15.4 |
| 2018-Q4 | -19.3 | -6.1 |
| 2018-Q3 | -15.8 | -9.9 |
| 2018-Q2 | -11.1 | -9.0 |
| 2018-Q1 | -7.2 | -8.7 |
| 2017-Q4 | -3.9 | -1.6 |
| 2017-Q3 | -2.8 | -0.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | -3.4 | 2.4 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.9 | 1.2 |
| 2016-Q4 | -5.1 | 0.1 |
| 2016-Q3 | -9.7 | 1.6 |
| 2016-Q2 | -11.9 | -6.4 |
| 2016-Q1 | -26.1 | -3.4 |
| 2015-Q4 | -26.0 | -11.9 |
| 2015-Q3 | -28.1 | -13.2 |
| 2015-Q2 | -36.7 | -18.0 |
| 2015-Q1 | -46.0 | -27.9 |
| 2014-Q4 | -51.8 | -31.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -53.3 | -36.5 |
| 2014-Q2 | -45.7 | -23.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | -44.4 | -21.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | -42.1 | -23.5 |
| 2013-Q3 | -42.8 | -24.7 |
| 2013-Q2 | -47.7 | -30.4 |
| 2013-Q1 | -47.7 | -30.1 |
| 2012-Q4 | -47.7 | -25.9 |
| 2012-Q3 | -42.1 | -29.2 |
| 2012-Q2 | -33.6 | -18.3 |
| 2012-Q1 | -24.6 | -8.4 |
| 2011-Q4 | -22.7 | -7.5 |
| 2011-Q3 | -20.8 | 5.9 |
| 2011-Q2 | -15.1 | 1.7 |
| 2011-Q1 | -10.2 | -0.3 |
| 2010-Q4 | -0.3 | 1.5 |
| 2010-Q3 | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| 2010-Q2 | -8.5 | 4.4 |
| 2010-Q1 | -3.9 | 2.0 |
| 2009-Q4 | -8.6 | 5.9 |
| 2009-Q3 | -10.5 | -0.9 |
| 2009-Q2 | -13.8 | -13.5 |
| 2009-Q1 | -26.7 | -14.6 |
| 2008-Q4 | -33.1 | -23.1 |
| 2008-Q3 | -13.4 | -8.9 |
| 2008-Q2 | -13.7 | 1.5 |
| 2008-Q1 | -7.0 | 1.7 |
| 2007-Q4 | -1.8 | 6.4 |
| 2007-Q3 | 3.1 | 10.6 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.4 | 7.4 |
| 2007-Q1 | 9.2 | 10.0 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was cancelled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was cancelled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source : INSEE – French business survey on real-estate development.
The outlook for housing starts intended for sale has fallen back sharply
In July 2026, the balance of opinion regarding prospects for housing starts has fallen back. The balance for dwellings intended for sale has dropped back markedly and has moved further away from its long-term average. The balance associated with rental housing (mainly social) has increased again and stands just below its long-term average.
The share of developers considering the study of new building programs with architects or design offices has slightly declined, after three consecutive quarters of stability, and has drifted away from its long-term average.
Developers are also more pessimistic than in the previous quarter regarding the demand for housing addressed to them. The corresponding balance has decreased slightly again and stands well below its long-term average.
The balance of opinion on unsold dwellings has fallen back but remains markedly above its long-term average.
Real estate developers are less pessimistic than in the previous quarter regarding the evolution of their clients' financing capacity
In July 2026, developers’ opinion regarding the outlook for changes in their clients’ financing capacity has improved: the corresponding balance has rebounded but remains deteriorated, well below its long-term average.
The balance of opinion relating to the evolution of the average down payment by applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling over the past three months has rebounded and stands just below its long-term average.
The balance of opinion relating to the change in the expected average price of housing put up for sale has declined again and has moved further away from its long-term average.
tableauReal-estate development economic outlook
| Average* | Oct. 25 | Jan. 26 | Apr. 26 | July. 26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | -13 | -29 | -28 | -34 | -35 |
| Expected housing starts | -9 | -13 | -19 | -14 | -21 |
| for sale | -18 | -28 | -27 | -20 | -37 |
| for rent housing (mainly social housing) | 1 | 8 | -9 | -5 | 0 |
| Companies considering the study of new programs ** | 62 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 52 |
| Unsold dwelling stock | -25 | -6 | -10 | -5 | -8 |
| Housing average price for sale | 6 | -15 | -10 | -12 | -16 |
| Downpayment | -18 | -15 | -17 | -21 | -19 |
| Financing capacity | -21 | -30 | -26 | -39 | -33 |
- * Average since July 1991.
- ** Share of companies, in % of answers, SA.
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development – INSEE.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 25 June and 21 July 2026. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 23 October 2026 at 12:00 pm.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 25 June and 21 July 2026. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 23 October 2026 at 12:00 pm.