Informations Rapides ·
27 January 2026 · n° 20
In January 2026, the outlook for housing starts has fallen back Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - January 2026
In January 2026, developers’ opinion regarding the outlook for housing starts has deteriorated sharply, particularly for rental housing (mainly social housing). They also appear slightly less optimistic regarding the evolution of the average down payment by applicants. However, they hold a more positive view on the evolution of their clients’ financing capacity and on the consideration of new projects.
In January 2026, developers’ opinion regarding the outlook for housing starts has deteriorated sharply, particularly for rental housing (mainly social housing). They also appear slightly less optimistic regarding the evolution of the average down payment by applicants. However, they hold a more positive view on the evolution of their clients’ financing capacity and on the consideration of new projects.
tableauNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
| New dwelling demand tendency | Expected housing starts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-Q1 | -28.0 | -19.2 |
| 2025-Q4 | -29.3 | -12.8 |
| 2025-Q3 | -29.6 | -22.3 |
| 2025-Q2 | -32.1 | -17.4 |
| 2025-Q1 | -36.5 | -28.9 |
| 2024-Q4 | -47.8 | -27.4 |
| 2024-Q3 | -46.1 | -34.8 |
| 2024-Q2 | -53.3 | -33.6 |
| 2024-Q1 | -51.5 | -39.3 |
| 2023-Q4 | -51.7 | -39.3 |
| 2023-Q3 | -50.4 | -34.4 |
| 2023-Q2 | -42.6 | -29.8 |
| 2023-Q1 | -33.9 | -21.2 |
| 2022-Q4 | -27.5 | -18.5 |
| 2022-Q3 | -20.6 | -10.7 |
| 2022-Q2 | -14.4 | -4.9 |
| 2022-Q1 | -6.4 | 3.7 |
| 2021-Q4 | 0.0 | -4.9 |
| 2021-Q3 | -0.6 | -3.9 |
| 2021-Q2 | 1.4 | -3.2 |
| 2021-Q1 | -16.5 | -4.6 |
| 2020-Q4 | -16.0 | -8.7 |
| 2020-Q3 | -13.2 | -6.2 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | -5.4 | -7.1 |
| 2019-Q4 | -7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2019-Q3 | -12.3 | -10.5 |
| 2019-Q2 | -19.9 | -9.1 |
| 2019-Q1 | -25.7 | -15.4 |
| 2018-Q4 | -19.3 | -6.1 |
| 2018-Q3 | -15.9 | -9.9 |
| 2018-Q2 | -11.0 | -9.0 |
| 2018-Q1 | -7.2 | -8.7 |
| 2017-Q4 | -3.9 | -1.6 |
| 2017-Q3 | -2.8 | -0.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | -3.4 | 2.4 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.9 | 1.2 |
| 2016-Q4 | -5.1 | 0.1 |
| 2016-Q3 | -9.7 | 1.6 |
| 2016-Q2 | -11.9 | -6.4 |
| 2016-Q1 | -26.1 | -3.4 |
| 2015-Q4 | -26.0 | -11.9 |
| 2015-Q3 | -28.1 | -13.2 |
| 2015-Q2 | -36.7 | -18.0 |
| 2015-Q1 | -46.0 | -27.9 |
| 2014-Q4 | -51.8 | -31.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -53.3 | -36.5 |
| 2014-Q2 | -45.7 | -23.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | -44.4 | -21.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | -42.1 | -23.5 |
| 2013-Q3 | -42.8 | -24.7 |
| 2013-Q2 | -47.7 | -30.4 |
| 2013-Q1 | -47.7 | -30.1 |
| 2012-Q4 | -47.7 | -25.9 |
| 2012-Q3 | -42.1 | -29.2 |
| 2012-Q2 | -33.6 | -18.3 |
| 2012-Q1 | -24.6 | -8.4 |
| 2011-Q4 | -22.7 | -7.5 |
| 2011-Q3 | -20.8 | 5.9 |
| 2011-Q2 | -15.1 | 1.7 |
| 2011-Q1 | -10.2 | -0.2 |
| 2010-Q4 | -0.3 | 1.5 |
| 2010-Q3 | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| 2010-Q2 | -8.5 | 4.4 |
| 2010-Q1 | -3.9 | 2.0 |
| 2009-Q4 | -8.6 | 5.9 |
| 2009-Q3 | -10.6 | -0.9 |
| 2009-Q2 | -13.8 | -13.5 |
| 2009-Q1 | -26.7 | -14.6 |
| 2008-Q4 | -33.1 | -23.1 |
| 2008-Q3 | -13.4 | -8.9 |
| 2008-Q2 | -13.7 | 1.5 |
| 2008-Q1 | -7.0 | 1.7 |
| 2007-Q4 | -1.8 | 6.4 |
| 2007-Q3 | 3.1 | 10.6 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.4 | 7.4 |
| 2007-Q1 | 9.2 | 10.0 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was cancelled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was cancelled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source: INSEE.
The outlook for social rental housing starts has fallen back sharply
In January 2026, the balance of opinion regarding prospects for housing starts has fallen back and moved away from its long-term average. For the rental housing (mainly social) sector, the corresponding balance has dropped back markedly, falling back below its long-term average. The outlook for housing starts intended for sale is stable, still well below its long-term average.
Once again, slightly more developers than in the previous quarter are considering the study of new building programs with architects or design offices. This proportion has increased very slightly but still hovers at very weak levels, below its long-term average.
Developers are slightly less pessimistic regarding the demand for housing they receive. The corresponding balance has been increasing for almost two years while remaining well below its long-term average.
The balance of opinion on unsold dwellings has dropped back, and moved closer to its long-term average.
Real estate developers are less pessimistic regarding the evolution of their clients' financing capacity
In January 2026, developers’ opinion regarding the outlook for changes in their clients’ financing capacity has improved: the corresponding balance has rebounded and gotten closer to its long-term average.
The balance of opinion relating to the evolution of the average down payment by applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling over the past three months has slightly fallen back, just above its long-term average.
The balance of opinion relating to the change in the expected average price of housing put up for sale has rebounded but still remains well below its long-term average.
tableauReal-estate development economic outlook
| Average* | Apr. 25 | Jul. 25 | Oct. 25 | Jan. 26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | -13 | -32 | -30 | -29 | -28 |
| Expected housing starts | -9 | -17 | -22 | -13 | -19 |
| for sale | -17 | -33 | -35 | -28 | -28 |
| for rent housing (mainly social housing) | 1 | 3 | -6 | 8 | -8 |
| Companies considering the study of new programs ** | 62 | 57 | 51 | 53 | 54 |
| Unsold dwelling stock | -25 | -15 | -20 | -6 | -10 |
| Housing average price for sale | 7 | -8 | -10 | -15 | -8 |
| Downpayment | -18 | -17 | -17 | -14 | -17 |
| Financing capacity | -21 | -4 | -21 | -37 | -25 |
- * Average since July 1991.
- ** Share of companies, in % of answers, SA.
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development – INSEE.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 26 December 2025 and 20 January 2026. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 24 April 2026 at 12:00 pm.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 26 December 2025 and 20 January 2026. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 24 April 2026 at 12:00 pm.