Informations Rapides ·
24 October 2025 · n° 267
In October 2025, the outlook for housing starts has rebounded Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - October 2025
In October 2025, developers’ opinion regarding the outlook for housing starts has rebounded. They also appear very slightly more optimistic regarding housing demand and the consideration of new projects, but they hold a more negative view on the evolution of their clients’ financing capacity and on the level of their unsold dwelling stocks.
In October 2025, developers’ opinion regarding the outlook for housing starts has rebounded. They also appear very slightly more optimistic regarding housing demand and the consideration of new projects, but they hold a more negative view on the evolution of their clients’ financing capacity and on the level of their unsold dwelling stocks.
tableauNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
| New dwelling demand tendency | Expected housing starts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-Q4 | -29.1 | -13.4 |
| 2025-Q3 | -29.6 | -22.3 |
| 2025-Q2 | -32.1 | -17.4 |
| 2025-Q1 | -36.5 | -28.9 |
| 2024-Q4 | -47.8 | -27.4 |
| 2024-Q3 | -46.1 | -34.8 |
| 2024-Q2 | -53.3 | -33.6 |
| 2024-Q1 | -51.5 | -39.3 |
| 2023-Q4 | -51.7 | -39.3 |
| 2023-Q3 | -50.4 | -34.4 |
| 2023-Q2 | -42.6 | -29.8 |
| 2023-Q1 | -33.9 | -21.2 |
| 2022-Q4 | -27.5 | -18.5 |
| 2022-Q3 | -20.6 | -10.7 |
| 2022-Q2 | -14.4 | -4.9 |
| 2022-Q1 | -6.4 | 3.7 |
| 2021-Q4 | 0.0 | -4.9 |
| 2021-Q3 | -0.6 | -3.9 |
| 2021-Q2 | 1.4 | -3.2 |
| 2021-Q1 | -16.5 | -4.6 |
| 2020-Q4 | -16.0 | -8.7 |
| 2020-Q3 | -13.2 | -6.2 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | -5.4 | -7.1 |
| 2019-Q4 | -7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2019-Q3 | -12.3 | -10.5 |
| 2019-Q2 | -19.9 | -9.1 |
| 2019-Q1 | -25.7 | -15.4 |
| 2018-Q4 | -19.3 | -6.1 |
| 2018-Q3 | -15.9 | -9.9 |
| 2018-Q2 | -11.0 | -9.0 |
| 2018-Q1 | -7.2 | -8.7 |
| 2017-Q4 | -3.9 | -1.6 |
| 2017-Q3 | -2.8 | -0.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | -3.4 | 2.4 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.9 | 1.2 |
| 2016-Q4 | -5.1 | 0.1 |
| 2016-Q3 | -9.7 | 1.6 |
| 2016-Q2 | -11.9 | -6.4 |
| 2016-Q1 | -26.1 | -3.4 |
| 2015-Q4 | -26.0 | -11.9 |
| 2015-Q3 | -28.1 | -13.2 |
| 2015-Q2 | -36.7 | -18.0 |
| 2015-Q1 | -46.0 | -27.9 |
| 2014-Q4 | -51.8 | -31.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -53.3 | -36.5 |
| 2014-Q2 | -45.7 | -23.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | -44.4 | -21.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | -42.1 | -23.5 |
| 2013-Q3 | -42.8 | -24.7 |
| 2013-Q2 | -47.7 | -30.4 |
| 2013-Q1 | -47.7 | -30.1 |
| 2012-Q4 | -47.7 | -25.9 |
| 2012-Q3 | -42.1 | -29.2 |
| 2012-Q2 | -33.6 | -18.3 |
| 2012-Q1 | -24.6 | -8.4 |
| 2011-Q4 | -22.7 | -7.5 |
| 2011-Q3 | -20.8 | 5.9 |
| 2011-Q2 | -15.1 | 1.7 |
| 2011-Q1 | -10.2 | -0.2 |
| 2010-Q4 | -0.3 | 1.5 |
| 2010-Q3 | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| 2010-Q2 | -8.5 | 4.4 |
| 2010-Q1 | -3.9 | 2.0 |
| 2009-Q4 | -8.6 | 5.9 |
| 2009-Q3 | -10.6 | -0.9 |
| 2009-Q2 | -13.8 | -13.5 |
| 2009-Q1 | -26.7 | -14.6 |
| 2008-Q4 | -33.1 | -23.1 |
| 2008-Q3 | -13.4 | -8.9 |
| 2008-Q2 | -13.7 | 1.5 |
| 2008-Q1 | -7.0 | 1.7 |
| 2007-Q4 | -1.8 | 6.4 |
| 2007-Q3 | 3.1 | 10.6 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.4 | 7.4 |
| 2007-Q1 | 9.2 | 10.0 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was cancelled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was cancelled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source: INSEE.
The outlook for housing starts has rebounded sharply, along with a slightly less negative opinion on demand
In October 2025, the balance of opinion regarding prospects for housing starts has bounced back, particularly for rental housing (mainly social housing). The latter has moved back above its long-term average and reached its highest level since January 2022. The outlook for housing starts intended for sale has also increased, though to a lesser extent. Both this balance and the overall balance, which have been recovering sharply since January 2024, nonetheless remain below their respective long-term average.
Slightly more real estate developers than in the previous quarter have declared to be considering the study of new building programs with architects or design offices. This proportion has increased very slightly but still hovers at very degraded levels, well below its long-term average.
Developers are slightly more optimistic regarding the demand for housing they receive. The corresponding balance has increased ever so slightly and has reached levels not seen since January 2023, while still remaining well below its long-term average.
The balance of opinion on unsold dwellings has rebounded sharply, moving away from its long-term average and reaching its highest level since April 2023. It is now close to its historical highs.
Real estate developers are very pessimistic regarding the evolution of their clients' financing capacity
In October 2025, developers’ opinion regarding the outlook for changes in their clients’ financing capacity has deteriorated sharply again: the corresponding balance has dropped and deviated from its long-term average.
As for the balance of opinion regarding the evolution of the average down payment by applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling over the past three months, it has slightly increased, just above its long-term average.
The balance of opinion relating to the change in the expected average price of housing put up for sale has declined again, and remains well below its long-term average.
tableauReal-estate development economic outlook
| Average* | Jan. 25 | Apr. 25 | Jul. 25 | Oct. 25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | -12 | -37 | -32 | -30 | -29 |
| Expected housing starts | -9 | -29 | -17 | -22 | -13 |
| for sale | -17 | -48 | -33 | -35 | -29 |
| for rent | 1 | -5 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| Companies considering the study of new programs ** | 62 | 53 | 57 | 51 | 52 |
| Unsold dwelling stock | -25 | -17 | -15 | -20 | -7 |
| Housing average price for sale | 7 | -19 | -8 | -10 | -15 |
| Downpayment | -18 | -22 | -17 | -17 | -16 |
| Financing capacity | -21 | -19 | -4 | -21 | -38 |
- * Average since July 1991.
- ** Share of companies, in % of answers, SA.
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development – INSEE.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 26 September 2025 and 21 October 2025. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 27 January 2026 at 12:00 pm.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 26 September 2025 and 21 October 2025. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 27 January 2026 at 12:00 pm.