In this article, we analyse the links between earned income in the early years of an individual’s career, and the risk that they will become beneficiaries of a disability pension at different points in later life, using the inter-pension schemes sample (EIC, 2009-2017). For men, we identify a clear gradient: the risk of benefiting from a disability pension is 1.5 times greater than the median for the lowest income deciles, and 2.5 times lower for the top decile. This gradient, which is less pronounced for women, remains present even when controlling for socio-professional status and health parameters in the early career, although it is attenuated. Inequality with regard to disability is particularly high at the ages when disability remains relatively rare (between the ages of 40 and 50), and has become more pronounced among more recent generations of men. The probability that an individual will receive a disability pension at an early age thus appears to be a relevant indicator of health inequality.

Mohammad, A., Roy, D., Tô, M. & Tochev, T. (2025). How Does the Probability of Benefiting From a Disability Pension Vary With Early Career Earned Income? Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, 546, 11–37. doi: 10.24187/ecostat.2025.546.2131