Informations Rapides ·
29 April 2025 · n° 106
In April 2025, the business climate in real estate development has improved but remains
deteriorated Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - April 2025
In April 2025, the climate in real estate development has markedly brightened. Developers’ opinion on prospects for housing starts has improved while still remaining below its long-term average. Their opinion on the demand for new dwellings and their clients' financial capacity has continued to recover but remains deteriorated overall.
In April 2025, the climate in real estate development has markedly brightened. Developers’ opinion on prospects for housing starts has improved while still remaining below its long-term average. Their opinion on the demand for new dwellings and their clients' financial capacity has continued to recover but remains deteriorated overall.
tableauNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
| New dwelling demand tendency | Expected housing starts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-Q2 | -29.7 | -15.8 |
| 2025-Q1 | -36.1 | -28.9 |
| 2024-Q4 | -48.7 | -27.4 |
| 2024-Q3 | -45.9 | -34.8 |
| 2024-Q2 | -53.1 | -33.6 |
| 2024-Q1 | -51.1 | -39.3 |
| 2023-Q4 | -52.6 | -39.3 |
| 2023-Q3 | -50.0 | -34.4 |
| 2023-Q2 | -42.4 | -29.8 |
| 2023-Q1 | -33.5 | -21.2 |
| 2022-Q4 | -28.5 | -18.5 |
| 2022-Q3 | -20.2 | -10.7 |
| 2022-Q2 | -14.0 | -4.9 |
| 2022-Q1 | -6.1 | 3.7 |
| 2021-Q4 | -1.1 | -4.9 |
| 2021-Q3 | -0.2 | -3.9 |
| 2021-Q2 | 1.9 | -3.2 |
| 2021-Q1 | -16.4 | -4.6 |
| 2020-Q4 | -17.0 | -8.7 |
| 2020-Q3 | -12.9 | -6.2 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | -5.4 | -7.1 |
| 2019-Q4 | -8.2 | -5.3 |
| 2019-Q3 | -12.0 | -10.5 |
| 2019-Q2 | -19.5 | -9.1 |
| 2019-Q1 | -25.8 | -15.4 |
| 2018-Q4 | -19.9 | -6.1 |
| 2018-Q3 | -15.7 | -9.9 |
| 2018-Q2 | -10.7 | -9.0 |
| 2018-Q1 | -7.3 | -8.7 |
| 2017-Q4 | -4.1 | -1.6 |
| 2017-Q3 | -2.8 | -0.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | -3.3 | 2.4 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.9 | 1.2 |
| 2016-Q4 | -5.1 | 0.1 |
| 2016-Q3 | -9.7 | 1.6 |
| 2016-Q2 | -11.9 | -6.4 |
| 2016-Q1 | -26.1 | -3.4 |
| 2015-Q4 | -26.0 | -11.9 |
| 2015-Q3 | -28.1 | -13.2 |
| 2015-Q2 | -36.7 | -18.0 |
| 2015-Q1 | -46.0 | -27.9 |
| 2014-Q4 | -51.8 | -31.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -53.3 | -36.5 |
| 2014-Q2 | -45.7 | -23.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | -44.4 | -21.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | -42.1 | -23.5 |
| 2013-Q3 | -42.8 | -24.7 |
| 2013-Q2 | -47.7 | -30.4 |
| 2013-Q1 | -47.7 | -30.1 |
| 2012-Q4 | -47.7 | -25.9 |
| 2012-Q3 | -42.1 | -29.2 |
| 2012-Q2 | -33.6 | -18.3 |
| 2012-Q1 | -24.6 | -8.4 |
| 2011-Q4 | -22.7 | -7.5 |
| 2011-Q3 | -20.8 | 5.9 |
| 2011-Q2 | -15.1 | 1.7 |
| 2011-Q1 | -10.2 | -0.2 |
| 2010-Q4 | -0.3 | 1.5 |
| 2010-Q3 | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| 2010-Q2 | -8.5 | 4.4 |
| 2010-Q1 | -3.9 | 2.0 |
| 2009-Q4 | -8.6 | 5.9 |
| 2009-Q3 | -10.6 | -0.9 |
| 2009-Q2 | -13.8 | -13.5 |
| 2009-Q1 | -26.7 | -14.6 |
| 2008-Q4 | -33.1 | -23.1 |
| 2008-Q3 | -13.4 | -8.9 |
| 2008-Q2 | -13.7 | 1.5 |
| 2008-Q1 | -7.0 | 1.7 |
| 2007-Q4 | -1.8 | 6.4 |
| 2007-Q3 | 3.1 | 10.6 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.4 | 7.4 |
| 2007-Q1 | 9.2 | 10.0 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was cancelled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was cancelled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source: INSEE.
The opinion of real estate developers on prospects for housing starts has sharply improved
In April 2025, real estate developers’ opinion on the demand for new dwellings addressed to them has improved again. The balance of opinion remains however below its long-term average.
The same trend has been occurring in the balance of opinion regarding the outlook for housing starts, which has strongly increased this quarter. It has been increasing almost continuously for the past year, but remains well below its long-term average. The balance of opinion has increased for housing intended for sale, yet remaining well below its average, while it has returned above its average for dwellings intended for social rental housing.
More real estate developers than in the previous quarter have declared that they have been considering the study of new building programs with architects or design offices. This proportion remains below its long-term average but has moved away from the historically low levels reached between July 2023 and October 2024 (lowest level reached in January 2024 for this series, which began in 1991).
As for the balance of opinion on unsold dwellings, it remains virtually stable, well above its long-term average.
Real estate developers expect a significant improvement in their clients' financing capacity
In April 2025, real estate developers have been much more optimistic than in the previous quarter regarding prospects for changes, over the next three months, in new home financing capacity : the associated balance of opinion has rebounded strongly and has returned well above its long-term average.
The balance of opinion corresponding to the evolution of the average down payment by applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling over the past three months has also increased and has returned above its long-term average, for the first time in a year.
The balance of opinion relating to the change in the expected average price of housing put up for sale has rebounded, but remains well below its long-term average.
tableauReal-estate development economic outlook
| Average* | Jul. 24 | Oct. 24 | Jan. 25 | Apr. 25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | -12 | -46 | -49 | -36 | -30 |
| Expected housing starts | -8 | -35 | -27 | -29 | -16 |
| for sale | -17 | -55 | -41 | -51 | -34 |
| for rent | 1 | -1 | 0 | -5 | 5 |
| Companies considering the study of new programs ** | 62 | 49 | 49 | 53 | 57 |
| Unsold dwelling stock | -25 | -16 | -15 | -17 | -16 |
| Housing average price for sale | 7 | -18 | -14 | -19 | -7 |
| Downpayment | -18 | -23 | -21 | -22 | -16 |
| Financing capacity | -21 | -28 | -9 | -20 | -6 |
- * Average since July 1991.
- ** Share of companies, in % of answers, SA.
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development – INSEE.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 27 March 2025 and 23 April 2025. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 25 July 2025 at 12:00 pm.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 27 March 2025 and 23 April 2025. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 25 July 2025 at 12:00 pm.