Informations Rapides ·
25 October 2024 · n° 267
In October 2024, prospects for housing starts remain degraded but have improved Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - October 2024
In October 2024, prospects for housing starts have recovered but remain well below their long term average. Real estate developers’ balance of opinion about the new dwelling demand, already close from the historically low level of 2014, has slightly deteriorated again. Otherwise, developers are expecting a clear improvement of their clients’ financial capacity.
In October 2024, prospects for housing starts have recovered but remain well below their long term average. Real estate developers’ balance of opinion about the new dwelling demand, already close from the historically low level of 2014, has slightly deteriorated again. Otherwise, developers are expecting a clear improvement of their clients’ financial capacity.
tableauNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
| New dwelling demand tendency | Expected housing starts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-Q4 | -47.5 | -26.6 |
| 2024-Q3 | -45.9 | -34.8 |
| 2024-Q2 | -53.1 | -33.6 |
| 2024-Q1 | -51.1 | -39.3 |
| 2023-Q4 | -52.6 | -39.3 |
| 2023-Q3 | -50.0 | -34.4 |
| 2023-Q2 | -42.4 | -29.8 |
| 2023-Q1 | -33.5 | -21.2 |
| 2022-Q4 | -28.5 | -18.5 |
| 2022-Q3 | -20.2 | -10.7 |
| 2022-Q2 | -14.0 | -4.9 |
| 2022-Q1 | -6.1 | 3.7 |
| 2021-Q4 | -1.1 | -4.9 |
| 2021-Q3 | -0.2 | -3.9 |
| 2021-Q2 | 1.9 | -3.2 |
| 2021-Q1 | -16.4 | -4.6 |
| 2020-Q4 | -17.0 | -8.7 |
| 2020-Q3 | -12.9 | -6.2 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | -5.4 | -7.1 |
| 2019-Q4 | -8.2 | -5.3 |
| 2019-Q3 | -12.0 | -10.5 |
| 2019-Q2 | -19.5 | -9.1 |
| 2019-Q1 | -25.8 | -15.4 |
| 2018-Q4 | -19.9 | -6.1 |
| 2018-Q3 | -15.7 | -9.9 |
| 2018-Q2 | -10.7 | -9.0 |
| 2018-Q1 | -7.3 | -8.7 |
| 2017-Q4 | -4.1 | -1.6 |
| 2017-Q3 | -2.8 | -0.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | -3.3 | 2.4 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.9 | 1.2 |
| 2016-Q4 | -5.1 | 0.1 |
| 2016-Q3 | -9.7 | 1.6 |
| 2016-Q2 | -11.9 | -6.4 |
| 2016-Q1 | -26.1 | -3.4 |
| 2015-Q4 | -26.0 | -11.9 |
| 2015-Q3 | -28.1 | -13.2 |
| 2015-Q2 | -36.7 | -18.0 |
| 2015-Q1 | -46.0 | -27.9 |
| 2014-Q4 | -51.8 | -31.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -53.3 | -36.5 |
| 2014-Q2 | -45.7 | -23.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | -44.4 | -21.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | -42.1 | -23.5 |
| 2013-Q3 | -42.8 | -24.7 |
| 2013-Q2 | -47.7 | -30.4 |
| 2013-Q1 | -47.7 | -30.1 |
| 2012-Q4 | -47.7 | -25.9 |
| 2012-Q3 | -42.1 | -29.2 |
| 2012-Q2 | -33.6 | -18.3 |
| 2012-Q1 | -24.6 | -8.4 |
| 2011-Q4 | -22.7 | -7.5 |
| 2011-Q3 | -20.8 | 5.9 |
| 2011-Q2 | -15.1 | 1.7 |
| 2011-Q1 | -10.2 | -0.2 |
| 2010-Q4 | -0.3 | 1.5 |
| 2010-Q3 | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| 2010-Q2 | -8.5 | 4.4 |
| 2010-Q1 | -3.9 | 2.0 |
| 2009-Q4 | -8.6 | 5.9 |
| 2009-Q3 | -10.6 | -0.9 |
| 2009-Q2 | -13.8 | -13.5 |
| 2009-Q1 | -26.7 | -14.6 |
| 2008-Q4 | -33.1 | -23.1 |
| 2008-Q3 | -13.4 | -8.9 |
| 2008-Q2 | -13.7 | 1.5 |
| 2008-Q1 | -7.0 | 1.7 |
| 2007-Q4 | -1.8 | 6.4 |
| 2007-Q3 | 3.1 | 10.6 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.4 | 7.4 |
| 2007-Q1 | 9.2 | 10.0 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was cancelled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was cancelled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source: INSEE.
Real estate developers have been slightly less pessimistic regarding the prospects for housing starts, but have still judged the demand to be depressed
In October 2024, the balance of opinion on prospects for housing starts has risen significantly, even though it remains well below its average. The associated balance for housing for sale has clearly rebounded, but remains way below its average. The one regarding housing for rent (mainly in the social housing sector) has improved ever so slightly, going back above his long-term average.
Despite an improvement of the balance of opinion on prospects for housing starts, real estate developers’ balance of opinion on the demand for new dwellings has anew slightly dropped. For several quarters, it remains at one of the lowest level recorded for this series (began in 1991).
Almost as many real estate developers than in the previous quarter have declared to be considering the study of new building programs by architects or design offices: this share remains virtually stable and close to its lowest level ever recorded.
The balance of opinion on unsold dwellings has slightly increased but remains well below its long-term average.
Real estate developers’ opinion on the prospects for changes in financing capacity has clearly brightened
In October 2024, real estate developers have been much more optimistic than in the previous quarter regarding prospects for changes, over the next three months, in new home financing capacity. The associated balance of opinion has sharply increased and has moved back above its long-term average.
The balance of opinion relating to the evolution of the average down payment of applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling over the past three months is stable and still stands below its long-term average.
The balance of opinion associated with the evolution of the expected average price of housing for sale has slightly increased but remains firmly established below its long-term average.
tableauReal-estate development economic outlook
| Average* | Jan. 24 | Apr. 24 | Jul. 24 | Oct. 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | -12 | -51 | -53 | -46 | -48 |
| Expected housing starts | -8 | -39 | -34 | -35 | -27 |
| for sale | -17 | -59 | -57 | -55 | -42 |
| for rent | 1 | -11 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Companies considering the study of new programs ** | 63 | 47 | 51 | 49 | 48 |
| Unsold dwelling stock | -25 | -10 | -13 | -16 | -15 |
| Housing average price for sale | 7 | -7 | -17 | -18 | -15 |
| Downpayment | -18 | -19 | -16 | -23 | -23 |
| Financing capacity | -21 | -31 | -19 | -28 | -8 |
- * Average since July 1991
- ** Share of companies, in % of answers, SA
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development - INSEE
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 27 September and 22 October 2024. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 24 January 2025 at 12:00 pm.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 27 September and 22 October 2024. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 24 January 2025 at 12:00 pm.