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Informations Rapides · 24 October 2024 · n° 260
Informations rapidesIn October 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry has sharply darkened Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - October 2024

According to business managers surveyed in October 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry has sharply darkened. At 92, the synthetic indicator has lost seven points and has significantly deviated from its long-period average (100). Except during the COVID-19 pandemic (April 2020), it is the largest monthly fall since November 2008. All of the balances of opinion defining the climate have contributed to its drop.

Informations rapides
No 260
Paru le :Paru le24/10/2024
Prochaine parution le : 22/05/2025 at 08:45 - May 2025
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According to business managers surveyed in October 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry has sharply darkened. At 92, the synthetic indicator has lost seven points and has significantly deviated from its long-period average (100). Except during the COVID-19 pandemic (April 2020), it is the largest monthly fall since November 2008. All of the balances of opinion defining the climate have contributed to its drop.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
2024-10 92.4
2024-09 99.1
2024-08 98.9
2024-07 95.4
2024-06 98.9
2024-05 99.5
2024-04 100.0
2024-03 102.0
2024-02 100.7
2024-01 99.0
2023-12 99.4
2023-11 99.0
2023-10 99.0
2023-09 98.7
2023-08 96.8
2023-07 100.8
2023-06 100.3
2023-05 99.3
2023-04 100.9
2023-03 103.0
2023-02 103.3
2023-01 102.5
2022-12 101.6
2022-11 101.9
2022-10 103.8
2022-09 102.5
2022-08 103.2
2022-07 105.4
2022-06 107.5
2022-05 107.0
2022-04 107.9
2022-03 107.1
2022-02 111.3
2022-01 112.6
2021-12 109.3
2021-11 110.5
2021-10 108.0
2021-09 107.5
2021-08 109.2
2021-07 109.1
2021-06 107.4
2021-05 107.5
2021-04 103.5
2021-03 98.0
2021-02 96.9
2021-01 95.9
2020-12 94.8
2020-11 92.4
2020-10 94.6
2020-09 94.7
2020-08 91.0
2020-07 81.1
2020-06 76.6
2020-05 69.9
2020-04 66.3
2020-03 97.2
2020-02 100.3
2020-01 102.3
2019-12 99.2
2019-11 102.8
2019-10 100.3
2019-09 102.6
2019-08 101.9
2019-07 101.0
2019-06 101.8
2019-05 103.5
2019-04 101.1
2019-03 103.4
2019-02 102.9
2019-01 103.2
2018-12 103.6
2018-11 105.7
2018-10 105.0
2018-09 108.1
2018-08 108.6
2018-07 108.5
2018-06 109.5
2018-05 109.7
2018-04 110.3
2018-03 110.6
2018-02 112.4
2018-01 113.8
2017-12 112.2
2017-11 112.2
2017-10 112.0
2017-09 111.7
2017-08 110.0
2017-07 108.5
2017-06 109.0
2017-05 108.4
2017-04 108.2
2017-03 105.4
2017-02 106.5
2017-01 105.8
2016-12 105.8
2016-11 102.1
2016-10 102.2
2016-09 103.5
2016-08 101.6
2016-07 101.6
2016-06 101.5
2016-05 104.3
2016-04 104.8
2016-03 102.6
2016-02 103.0
2016-01 102.8
2015-12 102.6
2015-11 102.3
2015-10 103.2
2015-09 104.7
2015-08 103.6
2015-07 101.5
2015-06 100.2
2015-05 101.7
2015-04 101.5
2015-03 98.9
2015-02 98.3
2015-01 98.7
2014-12 98.6
2014-11 98.8
2014-10 97.3
2014-09 96.8
2014-08 96.5
2014-07 96.1
2014-06 96.3
2014-05 98.2
2014-04 100.2
2014-03 100.7
2014-02 98.2
2014-01 99.5
2013-12 99.2
2013-11 98.0
2013-10 97.8
2013-09 95.7
2013-08 98.4
2013-07 94.5
2013-06 92.5
2013-05 91.8
2013-04 87.3
2013-03 90.3
2013-02 90.3
2013-01 89.6
2012-12 90.6
2012-11 91.4
2012-10 86.7
2012-09 92.5
2012-08 92.7
2012-07 90.9
2012-06 92.9
2012-05 94.6
2012-04 95.5
2012-03 96.4
2012-02 94.8
2012-01 94.7
2011-12 94.5
2011-11 97.5
2011-10 97.3
2011-09 99.1
2011-08 101.3
2011-07 104.8
2011-06 109.9
2011-05 107.3
2011-04 110.2
2011-03 110.2
2011-02 106.8
2011-01 108.7
2010-12 104.1
2010-11 101.6
2010-10 103.9
2010-09 102.8
2010-08 100.2
2010-07 97.0
2010-06 95.4
2010-05 96.2
2010-04 94.7
2010-03 90.8
2010-02 88.2
2010-01 89.8
2009-12 86.9
2009-11 87.0
2009-10 84.7
2009-09 83.4
2009-08 80.4
2009-07 75.8
2009-06 74.2
2009-05 71.7
2009-04 70.0
2009-03 65.9
2009-02 67.9
2009-01 72.1
2008-12 72.7
2008-11 79.3
2008-10 86.8
2008-09 91.5
2008-08 98.0
2008-07 98.7
2008-06 103.4
2008-05 104.2
2008-04 107.5
2008-03 110.1
2008-02 110.4
2008-01 110.7
2007-12 112.6
2007-11 112.4
2007-10 110.1
2007-09 110.8
2007-08 111.2
2007-07 111.7
2007-06 111.5
2007-05 110.2
2007-04 112.1
2007-03 111.5
2007-02 111.9
2007-01 108.4
2006-12 109.3
2006-11 109.7
2006-10 107.3
2006-09 108.2
2006-08 108.7
2006-07 109.1
2006-06 108.7
2006-05 109.0
2006-04 107.9
2006-03 106.4
2006-02 106.6
2006-01 103.1
2005-12 104.1
2005-11 101.0
2005-10 101.0
2005-09 98.8
2005-08 99.5
2005-07 100.0
2005-06 98.9
2005-05 96.9
2005-04 96.5
2005-03 99.5
2005-02 103.0
2005-01 103.2

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.* Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24
Business climate 100 95 99 99 92
Past production 5 -6 -13 -6 -12
Finished-goods inventory 12 9 5 7 17
Overall order books -18 -20 -16 -18 -26
Foreign order books -14 -19 -7 -9 -23
Past workforce size -8 2 1 -3 -3
Expected workforce size -9 2 1 1 -2
Personal production expectations 6 -5 7 6 -3
General production expectations -7 -18 -12 -11 -12
Expected trend in selling prices 4 7 2 2 6
Economic uncertainty felt** 29 24 23 20 26
  • * Long-term average since 1976 except for the economic uncertainty felt (April 2021).
  • ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

The balances of opinion on past production, personal production expectations and order books have strongly decreased

In October 2024, the balance of opinion on past production has clearly retreated and is well below its long-term average. While it was as its own, the balance of opinion on personal production expectations has sharply decreased. The one relative to general production prospects in the industry has slightly withdrawn and remains below its average. The economic uncertainty felt by business leaders has clearly rebounded and has moved closer to its average.

The balances of opinion associated with the level of order books, both global and foreign, have sharply fallen and have gone back below their respective averages. They have reached their lowest level since the beginning of 2021.

The balance of opinion on the current level of finished-goods inventories has highly increased and has gone back above its average. It has reached its highest level since August 2023.

Regarding the workforce size, the balance of opinion on its past change is stable while the one on its future change has diminished. Both remain quite clearly above their average, but the one on the future change has reached its lowest level since April 2021.

The balance of opinion relating to the expected trend in selling prices over the next three months has increased anew and has returned above its average.

The share of companies declaring being limited in their production by workforce shortage has slightly decreased but remains above its average. The share of companies declaring sourcing difficulties as a factor limiting their production has slightly increased and has moved just above its own. In total, the proportion of companies declaring supply-side obstacles only has increased: at 25%, it has slightly moved away from its long-term average. Lastly, the share of companies declaring obstacles linked to demand only is stable: at 28%, it remainswell below its long period average.

Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production*

Share of companies, in % of answers, SA
Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production* (Share of companies, in % of answers, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.** Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24
Difficulties of supply and demand 9 10 10 11 10
Sourcing difficulties 11 13 13 11 12
Workforce shortage 9 14 14 13 12
Difficulties of supply only 22 25 24 23 25
Difficulties of demand only 39 27 27 28 28
  • * Quaterly series from January 1991 then monthly series from May 2022
  • ** Long-term average since 1991 on monthly series (over the quarterly collection period, the point collected in the first month of each quarter was carried over identically to the following two months).
  • Sources : INSEE – Monthly business survey in industry

In the manufacturing of transport equipment, the business climate has fallen very sharply and has moved closer to the climate levels in other sub-sectors

In October 2024, the business climate indicator in the manufacture of food products and beverages is stable. At 95, it remains below its long period average. The balance of opinion on past production has strongly retreated while that on the global order books has rebounded.

In the manufacturing of machinery and equipment goods, the synthetic indicator of the business climate has withdrawn and has deviated from its average. Most balances of opinion have diminished quite sharply. At the sub-sectors level, the business climate indicator has slightly increased again in the manufacture of electrical equipment, but it has greatly retreated in the other sub-sectors.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the synthetic indicator of the business climate has fallen very sharply and has gone back below its long period average for the first time since September 2022. It has reached its lowest level since December 2021. The indicator has steeply decreased in the sub-sector of “motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers”, where it has widely moved away from its average, and very steeply in the manufacture of “other transport equipment”, where it has almost gone back to its own. In this last sub-sector, the drop is due to the fall in balances of opinion on order books, while in the sub-sector of “motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers”, a sharp decline in personal production expectations is additionally weighing in.

Finally, the business climate indicator in “other manufacturing” is stable. At 94, the indicator is quite clearly below its average. The balances of opinion on past production and personal production expectations have retreated while the ones on the order books have rebounded. At the sub-sectors level, the climate has diminished again in “textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry” and in “wood, paper, printing”, while it has rebounded in “chemicals and chemical products” and in “other industrial products”.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2024-10 95.3 95.1 95.5 93.6
2024-09 94.8 98.4 110.1 94.0
2024-08 97.3 95.7 110.1 95.1
2024-07 92.0 97.2 100.2 94.2
2024-06 92.3 99.2 109.4 95.2
2024-05 90.3 99.4 109.0 96.7
2024-04 92.1 96.9 111.1 95.2
2024-03 89.6 102.2 112.2 96.0
2024-02 86.8 98.4 111.1 96.4
2024-01 86.8 98.8 112.3 94.3
2023-12 85.9 98.7 111.4 95.2
2023-11 86.1 103.7 110.5 94.4
2023-10 85.0 101.1 111.9 94.8
2023-09 88.0 104.6 103.2 95.8
2023-08 88.0 102.2 102.9 95.1
2023-07 91.6 106.4 111.8 94.6
2023-06 87.1 105.6 105.1 94.7
2023-05 92.4 106.3 103.7 95.0
2023-04 93.9 109.7 103.5 97.3
2023-03 97.2 111.5 103.5 98.4
2023-02 101.7 109.8 104.2 96.5
2023-01 100.7 111.0 103.1 96.7
2022-12 99.5 112.1 102.3 96.0
2022-11 104.8 110.9 103.6 96.0
2022-10 108.8 114.0 104.7 97.0
2022-09 107.3 111.5 99.5 98.7
2022-08 107.5 112.8 99.9 99.6
2022-07 107.2 112.5 105.2 101.7
2022-06 107.4 112.3 101.9 105.7
2022-05 107.0 111.9 101.4 104.9
2022-04 109.2 113.2 101.7 108.4
2022-03 109.7 111.9 99.6 107.6
2022-02 110.8 114.8 103.9 111.7
2022-01 112.2 115.7 104.5 110.8
2021-12 116.5 116.5 91.2 112.3
2021-11 115.9 116.4 97.4 113.9
2021-10 113.5 115.8 90.5 111.8
2021-09 109.7 116.0 89.4 113.1
2021-08 111.1 119.4 92.4 113.1
2021-07 114.3 114.7 91.9 114.7
2021-06 116.5 115.3 89.9 110.7
2021-05 116.0 111.8 89.8 110.3
2021-04 105.7 112.8 88.6 107.0
2021-03 100.1 105.9 83.1 103.9
2021-02 94.6 105.0 88.9 101.5
2021-01 91.7 103.1 87.1 100.6
2020-12 89.3 95.2 88.9 101.8
2020-11 93.3 91.1 90.7 95.0
2020-10 94.5 93.0 91.5 95.8
2020-09 102.6 90.2 92.7 92.8
2020-08 96.5 89.8 90.7 87.7
2020-07 88.4 84.6 79.8 81.1
2020-06 90.9 79.1 76.1 78.4
2020-05 91.5 76.8 74.9 73.6
2020-04 93.5 76.9 72.5 72.4
2020-03 107.9 98.1 94.9 97.1
2020-02 108.1 98.9 99.3 100.2
2020-01 108.3 99.7 105.5 99.4
2019-12 107.6 97.2 100.8 97.8
2019-11 104.8 98.2 107.4 101.2
2019-10 105.9 96.1 101.3 99.9
2019-09 108.3 99.8 102.6 101.9
2019-08 108.6 99.1 101.5 101.8
2019-07 103.0 102.7 99.7 100.3
2019-06 108.6 98.8 100.4 100.7
2019-05 111.0 104.0 102.1 102.1
2019-04 107.3 101.0 100.4 100.5
2019-03 107.7 100.3 102.2 101.4
2019-02 108.4 104.2 99.5 101.2
2019-01 108.0 102.4 102.0 102.2
2018-12 107.9 102.7 103.0 102.3
2018-11 109.0 102.1 105.1 103.1
2018-10 102.7 106.3 104.2 103.7
2018-09 107.7 107.7 105.8 105.4
2018-08 107.8 107.3 106.6 105.8
2018-07 107.3 107.7 106.6 106.5
2018-06 109.5 107.5 109.8 105.7
2018-05 108.1 110.8 108.4 107.6
2018-04 110.3 109.1 111.6 107.3
2018-03 109.2 109.2 111.2 109.5
2018-02 110.1 110.0 111.6 110.1
2018-01 111.1 111.3 112.1 111.2
2017-12 111.2 111.2 111.0 110.6
2017-11 111.9 109.8 110.2 111.5
2017-10 112.0 109.0 109.1 111.4
2017-09 106.8 107.7 110.1 109.2
2017-08 108.8 106.1 108.8 108.3
2017-07 109.1 108.5 109.1 106.8
2017-06 111.7 108.2 104.9 108.5
2017-05 105.7 108.2 105.3 106.8
2017-04 105.5 106.3 103.9 107.6
2017-03 104.4 103.9 104.6 104.8
2017-02 105.4 103.3 105.7 106.3
2017-01 103.7 101.5 106.2 105.6
2016-12 108.7 103.1 104.6 104.9
2016-11 108.0 99.4 102.0 101.5
2016-10 106.8 97.3 105.9 101.2
2016-09 109.2 98.4 105.3 100.4
2016-08 99.5 98.3 104.1 101.4
2016-07 104.6 97.5 105.4 101.7
2016-06 103.2 97.1 106.0 101.5
2016-05 103.4 97.2 105.9 103.9
2016-04 106.1 100.0 109.2 101.2
2016-03 101.6 99.2 105.9 101.2
2016-02 100.3 100.8 109.2 99.9
2016-01 101.7 100.7 108.2 99.5
2015-12 100.1 98.1 108.0 101.7
2015-11 102.6 99.7 107.8 99.5
2015-10 104.4 98.1 108.1 99.8
2015-09 105.6 96.0 109.3 102.6
2015-08 103.3 97.3 108.4 101.5
2015-07 108.5 98.4 105.0 102.8
2015-06 105.1 97.1 105.4 100.9
2015-05 101.9 97.2 104.9 101.5
2015-04 104.8 96.7 107.1 100.6
2015-03 100.9 94.3 105.2 100.1
2015-02 99.6 95.0 100.6 100.2
2015-01 103.3 93.3 101.4 99.7
2014-12 99.3 92.0 99.5 100.2
2014-11 96.2 92.0 99.9 99.7
2014-10 95.6 92.5 97.1 98.4
2014-09 94.4 92.1 101.0 97.2
2014-08 95.8 93.4 97.7 100.6
2014-07 97.3 89.1 98.6 99.0
2014-06 95.7 91.7 97.7 98.5
2014-05 98.2 93.7 97.7 99.4
2014-04 95.9 92.8 102.5 100.2
2014-03 99.8 92.8 100.6 102.4
2014-02 99.3 93.7 98.0 98.3
2014-01 99.5 91.0 101.9 98.6
2013-12 98.2 91.9 99.5 99.1
2013-11 98.2 92.1 102.1 98.7
2013-10 95.5 90.1 103.5 97.6
2013-09 95.0 89.9 97.3 97.1
2013-08 95.5 91.5 101.2 97.0
2013-07 92.5 89.5 98.5 94.9
2013-06 92.8 89.1 94.5 93.1
2013-05 91.6 89.3 94.8 91.7
2013-04 91.7 89.5 92.6 89.1
2013-03 94.0 88.8 93.4 91.1
2013-02 98.0 88.8 94.3 90.1
2013-01 97.6 87.9 92.9 91.2
2012-12 98.8 87.4 92.2 91.8
2012-11 98.2 87.2 92.8 92.2
2012-10 91.0 86.1 95.9 89.3
2012-09 96.8 91.0 97.6 93.6
2012-08 93.9 90.2 95.2 93.4
2012-07 94.6 90.9 95.5 92.2
2012-06 95.1 90.9 95.6 93.6
2012-05 93.4 94.9 95.0 95.8
2012-04 99.2 95.7 94.3 97.7
2012-03 102.6 96.4 103.2 97.1
2012-02 100.6 96.1 93.6 95.8
2012-01 100.0 96.1 94.7 94.0
2011-12 98.6 96.0 100.0 94.5
2011-11 102.2 96.0 102.6 94.1
2011-10 104.5 98.3 100.2 96.3
2011-09 101.9 99.5 98.4 98.1
2011-08 103.6 100.3 101.8 100.3
2011-07 111.6 102.3 103.5 104.9
2011-06 108.6 104.1 109.3 108.9
2011-05 109.8 103.1 105.0 107.7
2011-04 109.0 104.5 105.8 110.1
2011-03 106.7 106.3 106.2 109.8
2011-02 107.3 101.7 98.8 108.5
2011-01 109.0 103.8 104.9 105.2

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) and [A38 and A64] Weights** (%) Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 20 97 95 95
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 96 98 95
          [CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 4 104 110 104
          [CJ] Electrical equipment 3 92 94 95
          [CK] Machinery and equipment 5 93 94 90
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 19 110 110 96
          [CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9 96 98 90
          [CL2] Other transport equipment 10 118 116 101
(C5) Other manufacturing 45 95 94 94
          [CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 103 100 97
          [CC] Wood, paper, printing 4 97 94 90
          [CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 94 90 92
          [CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 89 87 87
          [CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 92 91 92
          [CM] Other manufacturing industries / Manufacture of other industrial products 10 101 102 104
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sectors’ balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Revisions

The business climate in manufacturing industry of September 2024 has not been revised (after rounding).

For further information

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 September 2024 and 21 October 2024; most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.

Next issue: 21 November 2024 at 8:45 am.

Documentation

Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)

Abbreviated methodology (pdf,157 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 September 2024 and 21 October 2024; most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.

Next issue: 21 November 2024 at 8:45 am.

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr
:

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