Growth, Games and unknown factors Economic Outlook - July 2024
Focus – The margin rate of companies in France has withstood the rise in import prices well, due to their increased selling prices and wage moderation
Despite a price shock in imports as the health crisis ended, which was subsequently intensified by the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the average corporate margin rate held firm: in 2023, it stood at two value-added points above its 2019 level. The terms of trade certainly deteriorated slightly over the period, but to a much lesser extent than during the oil shocks of the 1970s due to the buoyancy of export prices: part of the shock was therefore dissipated abroad, while domestic consumers were protected by the price moderation measures put in place by the government. Finally, at the heart of the inflationary period, real wages experienced an unprecedented decline, especially when compared to the oil shocks.
However, this overall resistance of the corporate margin rate masks strong disparities between branches of activity. Data by branch for the most recent years are based on partial sources, still subject to revisions, and so they should be viewed with caution. Subject to this reservation, the margin rates of the energy branch and the manufacturing industry in 2023 stood at 9 points and 4 points respectively above their pre-health crisis level while the margin rate of market services fell by 1 point compared to 2019. This sectoral divergence can be accounted for mainly by the effect of the terms of trade and the price-setting method: the energy sector benefitted directly from the price increase, while service companies belatedly passed on the increases in their wage costs...
Conjoncture in France
Paru le :17/07/2024