Informations Rapides ·
24 October 2023 · n° 271
In October 2023, the business climate in the real-estate development has deteriorated
again Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - October 2023
In October 2023, the real estate developers’ opinion on the demand for new housing addressed to them has deteriorated, continuing on a decline that started in July 2021 and now reaching its lowest level since the start of the index (1991). Developers have also judged their unsold dwelling stock to be high.
In October 2023, the real estate developers’ opinion on the demand for new housing addressed to them has deteriorated, continuing on a decline that started in July 2021 and now reaching its lowest level since the start of the index (1991). Developers have also judged their unsold dwelling stock to be high.
tableauNew dwelling demand tendency
| New dwelling demand tendency | |
|---|---|
| 2023-Q4 | -53.5 |
| 2023-Q3 | -51.3 |
| 2023-Q2 | -42.2 |
| 2023-Q1 | -31.3 |
| 2022-Q4 | -29.6 |
| 2022-Q3 | -21.3 |
| 2022-Q2 | -14.0 |
| 2022-Q1 | -4.3 |
| 2021-Q4 | -1.9 |
| 2021-Q3 | -0.9 |
| 2021-Q2 | 1.7 |
| 2021-Q1 | -15.0 |
| 2020-Q4 | -17.5 |
| 2020-Q3 | -13.2 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | -4.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | -8.6 |
| 2019-Q3 | -12.0 |
| 2019-Q2 | -19.8 |
| 2019-Q1 | -25.2 |
| 2018-Q4 | -20.1 |
| 2018-Q3 | -15.5 |
| 2018-Q2 | -11.1 |
| 2018-Q1 | -7.0 |
| 2017-Q4 | -4.3 |
| 2017-Q3 | -2.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | -3.6 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.8 |
| 2016-Q4 | -5.1 |
| 2016-Q3 | -9.7 |
| 2016-Q2 | -11.9 |
| 2016-Q1 | -26.1 |
| 2015-Q4 | -26.0 |
| 2015-Q3 | -28.1 |
| 2015-Q2 | -36.7 |
| 2015-Q1 | -46.0 |
| 2014-Q4 | -51.8 |
| 2014-Q3 | -53.3 |
| 2014-Q2 | -45.7 |
| 2014-Q1 | -44.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | -42.1 |
| 2013-Q3 | -42.8 |
| 2013-Q2 | -47.7 |
| 2013-Q1 | -47.7 |
| 2012-Q4 | -47.7 |
| 2012-Q3 | -42.1 |
| 2012-Q2 | -33.6 |
| 2012-Q1 | -24.6 |
| 2011-Q4 | -22.7 |
| 2011-Q3 | -20.8 |
| 2011-Q2 | -15.1 |
| 2011-Q1 | -10.2 |
| 2010-Q4 | -0.3 |
| 2010-Q3 | -6.5 |
| 2010-Q2 | -8.5 |
| 2010-Q1 | -3.9 |
| 2009-Q4 | -8.6 |
| 2009-Q3 | -10.6 |
| 2009-Q2 | -13.8 |
| 2009-Q1 | -26.7 |
| 2008-Q4 | -33.1 |
| 2008-Q3 | -13.4 |
| 2008-Q2 | -13.7 |
| 2008-Q1 | -7.0 |
| 2007-Q4 | -1.8 |
| 2007-Q3 | 3.1 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.4 |
| 2007-Q1 | 9.2 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueNew dwelling demand tendency
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source: INSEE.
The balances of opinion on housing demand and housing starts have reached their lowest levels since the start of the series
In October 2023, developers’ opinion about the demand addressed to them has kept on degrading and has reached its lowest level since the start of the index (1991). The balance of opinion on the prospect for housing starts has dipped again and has also reached an all-time low level since its start (1991). The balance of opinion regarding expecting housing starts for sale has dropped sharply, dipping to its lowest level, a level that is close to that of the 2008 crisis. Conversely, the one associated with housing starts for rent has rebounded this quarter, while still remaining below its long term average.
More developers that in the previous quarter have judged their unsold dwelling stock to be high. The associated balance of opinion has been rising since mid-2022, reaching a level not observed since 2012.
The balance of opinion on the average price of housing for sale has pursued its drop
In October 2023, the balance of opinion associated with the evolution of the expected average price of housing for sale has diminished for the fifth quarter in a row, dipping below its long term average.
Real estate developers are a bit less optimistic than in the previous quarter regarding the prospects for new home financing over the next three months. The associated balance of opinion has dropped back and remains way below its long term average.
However, slightly more developers than in July have reported that the average down payment brought by applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling has increased over the past three months: the corresponding balance of opinion has slightly rebounded, standing right above its long term average.
tableauReal-estate development economic outlook
| Average* | Jan. 23 | Apr. 23 | Jul. 23 | Oct. 23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | -11 | -31 | -42 | -51 | -53 |
| Expected housing starts | -7 | -20 | -30 | -34 | -41 |
| - for sale | -16 | -28 | -48 | -43 | -60 |
| - for rent | 1 | -8 | 3 | -17 | -7 |
| Unsold dwelling stock | -26 | -20 | -7 | -7 | -4 |
| Housing average price for sale | 8 | 37 | 29 | 9 | 0 |
| Downpayment | -18 | -1 | -5 | -16 | -15 |
| Financing capacity | -21 | -30 | -45 | -41 | -45 |
- * Average since July 1991.
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development - INSEE
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 26 September and 19 October 2023. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 26 January 2024 at 12:00 pm.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 26 September and 19 October 2023. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 26 January 2024 at 12:00 pm.