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Informations Rapides · 19 October 2023 · n° 263
Informations rapidesIn October 2023, the business climate in manufacturing industry has retreated slightly Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - October 2023

According to the business managers surveyed in October 2023, the business climate in manufacturing industry has retreated slightly. At 98, the synthetic indicator has lost one point and has moved away from its average (100). This downturn is mainly due to the fall in the balance of opinion on personal production expectations over the next three months.

Informations rapides
No 263
Paru le :Paru le19/10/2023
Prochaine parution le : 22/05/2025 at 08:45 - May 2025
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According to the business managers surveyed in October 2023, the business climate in manufacturing industry has retreated slightly. At 98, the synthetic indicator has lost one point and has moved away from its average (100). This downturn is mainly due to the fall in the balance of opinion on personal production expectations over the next three months.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
2023-10 98.3
2023-09 99.1
2023-08 96.8
2023-07 100.7
2023-06 100.1
2023-05 98.9
2023-04 100.9
2023-03 103.6
2023-02 103.3
2023-01 102.2
2022-12 101.4
2022-11 101.6
2022-10 103.7
2022-09 102.7
2022-08 103.3
2022-07 105.3
2022-06 107.2
2022-05 106.6
2022-04 107.8
2022-03 107.5
2022-02 111.2
2022-01 112.2
2021-12 109.2
2021-11 110.1
2021-10 108.0
2021-09 107.7
2021-08 109.5
2021-07 109.1
2021-06 107.3
2021-05 107.4
2021-04 103.7
2021-03 98.5
2021-02 97.1
2021-01 95.8
2020-12 94.9
2020-11 92.4
2020-10 95.0
2020-09 95.1
2020-08 91.3
2020-07 81.3
2020-06 76.7
2020-05 69.7
2020-04 66.4
2020-03 97.4
2020-02 100.1
2020-01 101.9
2019-12 99.1
2019-11 102.5
2019-10 100.2
2019-09 102.4
2019-08 101.9
2019-07 101.0
2019-06 101.8
2019-05 103.4
2019-04 101.1
2019-03 103.4
2019-02 102.8
2019-01 103.0
2018-12 103.6
2018-11 105.5
2018-10 104.8
2018-09 107.9
2018-08 108.6
2018-07 108.5
2018-06 109.4
2018-05 109.5
2018-04 110.2
2018-03 110.5
2018-02 112.2
2018-01 113.6
2017-12 112.0
2017-11 112.0
2017-10 111.8
2017-09 111.5
2017-08 110.0
2017-07 108.5
2017-06 108.9
2017-05 108.3
2017-04 108.3
2017-03 105.3
2017-02 106.4
2017-01 105.8
2016-12 105.8
2016-11 102.1
2016-10 102.1
2016-09 103.4
2016-08 101.5
2016-07 101.5
2016-06 101.4
2016-05 104.3
2016-04 104.7
2016-03 102.4
2016-02 102.9
2016-01 102.7
2015-12 102.5
2015-11 102.3
2015-10 103.1
2015-09 104.8
2015-08 103.5
2015-07 101.4
2015-06 100.2
2015-05 101.7
2015-04 101.4
2015-03 98.8
2015-02 98.4
2015-01 98.7
2014-12 98.6
2014-11 98.7
2014-10 97.3
2014-09 96.8
2014-08 96.5
2014-07 96.1
2014-06 96.5
2014-05 98.3
2014-04 100.2
2014-03 100.7
2014-02 98.2
2014-01 99.5
2013-12 99.2
2013-11 98.1
2013-10 97.8
2013-09 95.7
2013-08 98.4
2013-07 94.6
2013-06 92.5
2013-05 91.8
2013-04 87.4
2013-03 90.3
2013-02 90.3
2013-01 89.6
2012-12 90.7
2012-11 91.4
2012-10 86.8
2012-09 92.4
2012-08 92.7
2012-07 90.8
2012-06 92.9
2012-05 94.6
2012-04 95.5
2012-03 96.3
2012-02 94.8
2012-01 94.8
2011-12 94.5
2011-11 97.4
2011-10 97.3
2011-09 99.1
2011-08 101.2
2011-07 104.8
2011-06 109.9
2011-05 107.3
2011-04 110.2
2011-03 110.2
2011-02 107.0
2011-01 108.8
2010-12 104.2
2010-11 101.8
2010-10 104.1
2010-09 102.9
2010-08 100.4
2010-07 97.2
2010-06 95.7
2010-05 96.5
2010-04 95.1
2010-03 91.1
2010-02 88.6
2010-01 90.1
2009-12 87.3
2009-11 87.4
2009-10 85.0
2009-09 83.8
2009-08 80.7
2009-07 76.1
2009-06 74.6
2009-05 71.9
2009-04 70.0
2009-03 66.0
2009-02 68.0
2009-01 72.1
2008-12 72.9
2008-11 79.4
2008-10 86.8
2008-09 91.4
2008-08 97.9
2008-07 98.6
2008-06 103.3
2008-05 104.1
2008-04 107.3
2008-03 110.0
2008-02 110.3
2008-01 110.6
2007-12 112.5
2007-11 112.3
2007-10 110.0
2007-09 110.6
2007-08 111.0
2007-07 111.5
2007-06 111.3
2007-05 110.0
2007-04 112.0
2007-03 111.3
2007-02 111.7
2007-01 108.3
2006-12 109.2
2006-11 109.6
2006-10 107.2
2006-09 108.1
2006-08 108.5
2006-07 108.9
2006-06 108.6
2006-05 108.8
2006-04 107.9
2006-03 106.3
2006-02 106.5
2006-01 103.0
2005-12 104.0
2005-11 100.9
2005-10 101.0
2005-09 98.8
2005-08 99.5
2005-07 100.0
2005-06 98.9
2005-05 96.9
2005-04 96.4
2005-03 99.6
2005-02 103.1
2005-01 103.3

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.* Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23
Business climate 100 101 97 99 98
Past production 5 9 -4 -6 -11
Finished-goods inventory 12 16 18 14 17
Overall order books -18 -15 -21 -22 -17
Foreign order books -14 -5 -15 -13 -3
Past workforce size -8 8 4 5 3
Expected workforce size -9 10 10 10 7
Personal production expectations 6 -4 3 17 5
General production expectations -7 -9 -9 -6 -10
Expected trend in selling prices 4 7 2 4 0
Economic uncertainty felt** 30 31 26 27 29
  • * Long-term average since 1976 except for the economic uncertainty felt (April 2021).
  • ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

The balances of opinion on the production have degraded

In October 2023, the balance of opinion on the evolution of the production over the last three months has degraded again and has reached its lowest level since July 2020. The balance of opinion on personal production expectations over the next three months has highly withdrawn after rising sharply last month; it has gone back below its historic average. The general production prospects in the industry have also been judged to be less favourable and the corresponding balance has gone back below its long-term average. The economic uncertainty felt by the business leaders has risen slightly again.

The balance of opinion associated with the level of the foreign order-books has clearly improved and has moved away from its average. The one relative at the level of the overall order-books has also rebounded and has gone back above its average.

The balance of opinion associated with the current level of the inventories of finished-goods has rebounded and has moved away from its average.

The balances of opinion associated with the past and expected change in the workforce size have decreased but remain well above their long-term average.

The balance of opinion related to the expected trend in selling prices over the next three months has withdrawn and has gone below its average.

Finally, the share of companies declaring sourcing difficulties as a factor limiting their production has retreated, at 19%. The share of companies declaring being limited in their production by workforce shortage has diminished again. Overall, the share of companies declaring supply-side obstacles only has diminished at 32%; however it remains 10 points above its long-period average. Conversely, the share of companies declaring difficulties of demand only has increased, reaching its highest level since spring 2021. It remains nevertheless lower than its long-term average.

Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production*

Share of companies, in % of answers, SA
Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production* (Share of companies, in % of answers, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.** Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23
Difficulties of supply and demand 9 13 15 11 11
Sourcing difficulties 11 22 22 22 19
Workforce shortage 9 25 26 24 22
Difficulties of supply only 22 35 34 36 32
Difficulties of demand only 40 21 21 20 24
  • * Quaterly series from January 1991 then monthly series from May 2022
  • ** Long-term average since 1991 on monthly series (over the quarterly collection period, the point collected in the first month of each quarter was carried over identically to the following two months).
  • Sources : INSEE – Monthly business survey in industry

The business climate has darkened in all sub-sectors except in the manufacture of “other transport equipment” and in the manufacture of wood, paper, printing

In October 2023, the business climate indicator in the manufacture of food products and beverages has clearly degraded, driven down by the balance of opinion on personal production expectations. At 82, the climate of this sub-sector has reached its lowest level since June 2009.

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the synthetic indicator of the business climate has clearly withdrawn and has gone below its long-term average. This decline is mainly explained by the degradation of the balances of opinion on the order-books.

However, the business climate has clearly improved in the manufacture of transport equipment, due to a strong rise in the sub-sector of “other transport equipment”, driven by a clear rebound in the balances of opinion on the order-books. On the contrary, the business climate has withdrawn in the manufacture of motor vehicles, driven down by the balance of opinion on personal production expectations and despite the rise of the one on foreign order-books.

Finally, the business climate in the “other industries” has lost two points, driven down especially by the personal production expectations and the order-books. It has been below its long-term average since August 2022.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2023-10 81.8 99.4 113.9 93.6
2023-09 87.5 104.2 104.2 95.6
2023-08 87.3 101.3 103.4 95.1
2023-07 91.4 106.2 112.2 94.5
2023-06 85.7 105.3 105.4 94.7
2023-05 92.5 105.9 103.4 95.1
2023-04 93.9 109.6 103.2 97.8
2023-03 99.1 112.1 104.0 98.9
2023-02 102.3 109.9 104.0 96.1
2023-01 100.1 111.2 103.2 96.3
2022-12 99.4 111.7 102.3 95.9
2022-11 103.9 110.6 104.0 95.4
2022-10 107.7 113.3 105.8 96.5
2022-09 106.4 111.0 100.7 98.3
2022-08 106.9 111.8 100.6 99.6
2022-07 106.7 112.4 105.7 101.5
2022-06 106.2 111.9 102.2 105.5
2022-05 107.1 111.4 101.2 104.8
2022-04 109.0 113.0 101.3 108.7
2022-03 111.1 112.3 100.0 107.8
2022-02 111.1 114.7 103.9 111.2
2022-01 111.5 115.8 104.7 110.3
2021-12 116.2 116.1 91.4 112.0
2021-11 115.1 116.0 97.6 113.3
2021-10 112.5 115.4 91.5 111.2
2021-09 109.0 115.5 90.3 112.7
2021-08 110.9 118.6 93.1 113.0
2021-07 113.8 114.8 92.4 114.5
2021-06 115.9 115.1 90.1 110.6
2021-05 116.2 111.6 89.8 110.3
2021-04 105.6 112.7 88.7 107.3
2021-03 101.1 106.4 83.7 104.1
2021-02 94.5 105.2 89.1 101.1
2021-01 91.2 103.4 87.2 100.3
2020-12 89.1 95.4 89.1 101.6
2020-11 92.5 91.2 91.1 94.7
2020-10 93.5 93.2 92.3 95.5
2020-09 102.1 90.4 93.4 92.7
2020-08 96.5 89.6 91.0 88.0
2020-07 88.0 85.1 80.1 81.3
2020-06 90.7 79.4 76.2 78.7
2020-05 91.5 76.8 74.6 73.9
2020-04 92.9 76.9 72.3 72.7
2020-03 108.3 98.3 95.2 97.0
2020-02 107.7 99.1 99.4 99.9
2020-01 107.7 99.9 105.3 99.0
2019-12 107.4 97.2 100.9 97.7
2019-11 104.3 98.1 107.5 100.9
2019-10 105.1 96.0 101.9 99.5
2019-09 108.0 99.6 102.7 101.5
2019-08 108.7 98.7 101.5 101.7
2019-07 102.8 102.8 99.9 100.2
2019-06 108.4 98.8 100.5 100.8
2019-05 111.0 103.9 102.1 102.1
2019-04 106.9 100.8 100.5 100.6
2019-03 107.9 100.4 102.5 101.3
2019-02 107.8 104.3 99.9 101.0
2019-01 107.6 102.4 102.1 101.8
2018-12 107.7 102.5 103.4 102.1
2018-11 108.6 102.0 105.4 102.7
2018-10 102.0 106.2 104.8 103.2
2018-09 107.6 107.4 106.1 105.1
2018-08 107.7 106.8 106.8 105.7
2018-07 107.2 107.8 106.9 106.4
2018-06 109.4 107.5 109.9 105.6
2018-05 108.0 110.7 108.2 107.6
2018-04 109.8 109.0 111.7 107.4
2018-03 109.1 109.2 111.3 109.1
2018-02 109.6 110.0 112.0 109.9
2018-01 110.9 111.3 112.2 110.9
2017-12 111.2 110.9 111.3 110.4
2017-11 111.8 109.6 110.5 111.2
2017-10 111.4 108.9 109.6 110.9
2017-09 106.9 107.5 110.3 108.8
2017-08 108.5 105.7 109.0 108.1
2017-07 109.2 108.6 109.4 106.8
2017-06 111.5 108.1 105.2 108.4
2017-05 105.4 108.1 105.4 106.8
2017-04 104.8 106.3 104.4 107.5
2017-03 103.9 104.0 105.0 104.4
2017-02 104.9 103.3 106.1 106.1
2017-01 103.5 101.5 106.5 105.4
2016-12 108.4 103.1 104.9 104.7
2016-11 107.7 99.5 102.4 101.3
2016-10 106.5 97.3 106.1 101.1
2016-09 108.9 98.4 105.6 100.3
2016-08 99.2 98.2 104.3 101.2
2016-07 104.4 97.5 105.6 101.5
2016-06 103.0 97.1 106.3 101.3
2016-05 103.2 97.2 106.2 103.7
2016-04 105.8 99.9 109.5 101.1
2016-03 101.4 99.1 106.2 101.0
2016-02 100.0 100.7 109.4 99.7
2016-01 101.5 100.6 108.4 99.3
2015-12 99.8 98.1 108.2 101.5
2015-11 102.3 99.6 108.1 99.3
2015-10 104.2 98.1 108.3 99.7
2015-09 105.4 96.0 109.5 102.4
2015-08 103.0 97.3 108.5 101.3
2015-07 108.2 98.3 105.2 102.6
2015-06 104.9 97.1 105.6 100.7
2015-05 101.7 97.2 105.2 101.3
2015-04 104.5 96.6 107.3 100.4
2015-03 100.7 94.2 105.5 99.9
2015-02 99.3 95.0 101.0 100.0
2015-01 103.0 93.3 101.7 99.6
2014-12 99.0 92.1 99.8 100.0
2014-11 96.0 92.1 100.2 99.6
2014-10 95.4 92.6 97.4 98.3
2014-09 94.2 92.1 101.1 97.0
2014-08 95.4 93.4 98.0 100.4
2014-07 97.0 89.2 99.1 98.8
2014-06 95.4 91.7 98.2 98.3
2014-05 97.9 93.7 98.2 99.3
2014-04 95.7 92.8 102.9 100.0
2014-03 99.5 92.8 100.9 102.2
2014-02 99.0 93.8 98.3 98.1
2014-01 99.2 91.1 102.3 98.5
2013-12 98.0 91.9 99.9 99.0
2013-11 97.9 92.3 102.3 98.5
2013-10 95.3 90.3 103.8 97.6
2013-09 94.7 90.0 97.6 97.0
2013-08 95.2 91.6 101.5 96.9
2013-07 92.2 89.6 98.7 94.8
2013-06 92.5 89.2 94.8 93.0
2013-05 91.3 89.4 95.0 91.6
2013-04 91.4 89.6 92.9 89.0
2013-03 93.7 88.9 93.7 91.0
2013-02 97.7 88.9 94.4 90.1
2013-01 97.3 88.0 92.9 91.1
2012-12 98.5 87.6 92.4 91.7
2012-11 97.9 87.3 92.9 92.1
2012-10 90.7 86.2 95.9 89.2
2012-09 96.5 91.0 97.6 93.4
2012-08 93.5 90.3 95.3 93.3
2012-07 94.3 90.9 95.5 92.1
2012-06 94.8 91.0 95.8 93.5
2012-05 93.1 94.8 95.2 95.7
2012-04 98.8 95.7 94.4 97.6
2012-03 102.3 96.4 103.2 97.0
2012-02 100.3 96.1 93.9 95.7
2012-01 99.6 96.1 95.0 93.9
2011-12 98.3 96.1 100.2 94.4
2011-11 101.9 96.0 102.7 94.0
2011-10 104.2 98.2 100.4 96.2
2011-09 101.7 99.4 98.8 97.9
2011-08 103.3 100.3 102.0 100.2
2011-07 111.2 102.3 103.9 104.8
2011-06 108.3 104.0 109.6 108.7
2011-05 109.5 103.1 105.3 107.5
2011-04 108.7 104.5 106.1 109.8
2011-03 106.5 106.3 106.5 109.6
2011-02 107.1 101.8 99.4 108.3
2011-01 108.8 103.8 105.3 105.1

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) and [A38 and A64] Weights** (%) Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 20 87 87 82
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 101 104 99
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 4 110 116 112
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 94 95 92
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 100 102 96
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 19 103 104 114
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9 101 105 103
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 103 102 120
(C5) Other manufacturing 45 95 96 94
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 106 105 103
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 4 91 87 90
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 91 92 89
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 92 89 88
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 91 93 92
[CM] Other manufacturing industries / Manufacture of other industrial products 10 106 110 101
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sectors’ balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Revisions

The business climate in manufacturing industry of September 2023 has not been revised (after rounding).

For further information

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 26 September and 16 October 2023.

Next issue: 23 November 2023 at 8:45 am.

Documentation

Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)

Abbreviated methodology (pdf,157 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 26 September and 16 October 2023.

Next issue: 23 November 2023 at 8:45 am.

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr
:

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