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Informations Rapides · 21 September 2023 · n° 234
Informations rapidesIn September 2023, the business climate in manufacturing industry has rebounded slightly Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - September 2023

According to the business managers surveyed in September 2023, the business climate in manufacturing industry has rebounded slightly. At 99, the synthetic indicator has won two points but remains just below its long-term average (100). The balance of opinion on personal production expectations over the next three months mainly explains the rebound of the climate.

Informations rapides
No 234
Paru le :Paru le21/09/2023
Prochaine parution le : 21/12/2023 at 08:45 - December 2023
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According to the business managers surveyed in September 2023, the business climate in manufacturing industry has rebounded slightly. At 99, the synthetic indicator has won two points but remains just below its long-term average (100). The balance of opinion on personal production expectations over the next three months mainly explains the rebound of the climate.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
2023-09 98.6
2023-08 96.8
2023-07 100.7
2023-06 100.1
2023-05 98.9
2023-04 100.9
2023-03 103.6
2023-02 103.3
2023-01 102.2
2022-12 101.4
2022-11 101.6
2022-10 103.7
2022-09 102.7
2022-08 103.3
2022-07 105.3
2022-06 107.2
2022-05 106.6
2022-04 107.8
2022-03 107.5
2022-02 111.2
2022-01 112.2
2021-12 109.2
2021-11 110.1
2021-10 108.0
2021-09 107.7
2021-08 109.5
2021-07 109.1
2021-06 107.3
2021-05 107.4
2021-04 103.7
2021-03 98.5
2021-02 97.1
2021-01 95.8
2020-12 94.9
2020-11 92.4
2020-10 95.0
2020-09 95.1
2020-08 91.3
2020-07 81.3
2020-06 76.7
2020-05 69.8
2020-04 66.5
2020-03 97.4
2020-02 100.1
2020-01 101.9
2019-12 99.1
2019-11 102.5
2019-10 100.2
2019-09 102.4
2019-08 101.9
2019-07 101.0
2019-06 101.8
2019-05 103.4
2019-04 101.1
2019-03 103.4
2019-02 102.8
2019-01 103.0
2018-12 103.6
2018-11 105.5
2018-10 104.8
2018-09 107.9
2018-08 108.5
2018-07 108.4
2018-06 109.4
2018-05 109.5
2018-04 110.2
2018-03 110.5
2018-02 112.2
2018-01 113.6
2017-12 112.0
2017-11 112.0
2017-10 111.8
2017-09 111.5
2017-08 109.9
2017-07 108.5
2017-06 108.9
2017-05 108.3
2017-04 108.3
2017-03 105.3
2017-02 106.4
2017-01 105.8
2016-12 105.8
2016-11 102.1
2016-10 102.1
2016-09 103.4
2016-08 101.5
2016-07 101.5
2016-06 101.4
2016-05 104.3
2016-04 104.7
2016-03 102.4
2016-02 102.9
2016-01 102.7
2015-12 102.5
2015-11 102.3
2015-10 103.1
2015-09 104.8
2015-08 103.5
2015-07 101.4
2015-06 100.2
2015-05 101.7
2015-04 101.4
2015-03 98.8
2015-02 98.4
2015-01 98.7
2014-12 98.6
2014-11 98.7
2014-10 97.3
2014-09 96.8
2014-08 96.5
2014-07 96.1
2014-06 96.5
2014-05 98.3
2014-04 100.2
2014-03 100.7
2014-02 98.2
2014-01 99.5
2013-12 99.2
2013-11 98.1
2013-10 97.8
2013-09 95.7
2013-08 98.4
2013-07 94.6
2013-06 92.5
2013-05 91.8
2013-04 87.4
2013-03 90.3
2013-02 90.3
2013-01 89.6
2012-12 90.7
2012-11 91.4
2012-10 86.8
2012-09 92.4
2012-08 92.7
2012-07 90.8
2012-06 92.9
2012-05 94.6
2012-04 95.5
2012-03 96.3
2012-02 94.8
2012-01 94.8
2011-12 94.5
2011-11 97.4
2011-10 97.3
2011-09 99.1
2011-08 101.2
2011-07 104.8
2011-06 109.9
2011-05 107.2
2011-04 110.2
2011-03 110.2
2011-02 107.0
2011-01 108.8
2010-12 104.2
2010-11 101.7
2010-10 104.1
2010-09 102.9
2010-08 100.4
2010-07 97.2
2010-06 95.7
2010-05 96.5
2010-04 95.1
2010-03 91.1
2010-02 88.6
2010-01 90.2
2009-12 87.4
2009-11 87.5
2009-10 85.0
2009-09 83.8
2009-08 80.7
2009-07 76.1
2009-06 74.6
2009-05 71.9
2009-04 70.1
2009-03 66.1
2009-02 68.0
2009-01 72.1
2008-12 72.9
2008-11 79.4
2008-10 86.8
2008-09 91.4
2008-08 97.9
2008-07 98.6
2008-06 103.3
2008-05 104.0
2008-04 107.3
2008-03 110.0
2008-02 110.3
2008-01 110.6
2007-12 112.5
2007-11 112.2
2007-10 110.0
2007-09 110.6
2007-08 110.9
2007-07 111.5
2007-06 111.3
2007-05 110.0
2007-04 111.9
2007-03 111.3
2007-02 111.7
2007-01 108.3
2006-12 109.2
2006-11 109.6
2006-10 107.2
2006-09 108.1
2006-08 108.5
2006-07 108.9
2006-06 108.5
2006-05 108.8
2006-04 107.8
2006-03 106.3
2006-02 106.5
2006-01 103.0
2005-12 104.0
2005-11 100.9
2005-10 101.0
2005-09 98.8
2005-08 99.5
2005-07 100.0
2005-06 98.9
2005-05 96.9
2005-04 96.4
2005-03 99.6
2005-02 103.1
2005-01 103.3

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.* Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23
Business climate 100 100 101 97 99
Past production 5 3 9 -4 -6
Finished-goods inventory 12 13 16 18 15
Overall order books -18 -18 -15 -21 -21
Foreign order books -14 -15 -5 -15 -14
Past workforce size -8 9 8 4 5
Expected workforce size -9 11 10 10 10
Personal production expectations 6 10 -4 3 14
General production expectations -7 -9 -9 -9 -6
Expected trend in selling prices 4 1 7 2 5
Economic uncertainty felt** 30 32 31 26 28
  • * Long-term average since 1976 except for the economic uncertainty felt (April 2021).
  • ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

The balance of opinion on personal production expectations is back above its historic average

In September 2023, the balance of opinion on personal production expectations over the next three months is back above its historic average. However, the balance of opinion on the past production has deteriorated again and has moved away from its average. The general production prospects in the industry have improved and the corresponding balance of opinion has gone back just above its long-term average. The economic uncertainty felt by the business leaders has risen slightly.

The balances of opinion associated with the level of the order-books, overall and foreign, are nearly stable.

The balance of opinion associated with the current level of the inventories of finished-goods has withdrawn but remains above its long-term average.

The balances of opinion associated with the past and expected change in the workforce size are virtually stable and remain well above their respective averages.

The balance of opinion related to the expected trend in selling prices over the next three months has rebounded and has gone back just above its long-term average.

Finally, the share of companies declaring sourcing difficulties as a factor limiting their production is relatively stable, at 23%. The share of companies declaring being limited in their production by workforce shortage has diminished to 25%, after three consecutive months of increase. These shares remain well above their respective averages.

Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production*

Share of companies, in % of answers, SA
Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production* (Share of companies, in % of answers, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.** Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23
Difficulties of supply and demand 9 9 13 15 12
Sourcing difficulties 11 20 22 22 23
Workforce shortage 9 21 25 26 25
Difficulties of supply only 22 38 35 34 36
Difficulties of demand only 40 19 21 21 20
  • * Quaterly series from January 1991 then monthly series from May 2022
  • ** Long-term average since 1991 on monthly series (over the quarterly collection period, the point collected in the first month of each quarter was carried over identically to the following two months).
  • Sources : INSEE – Monthly business survey in industry

The business climate has brightened in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods but remains degraded in the manufacture of food products and beverages and in the “other industries”

In September 2023, the business climate indicator in the manufacture of food products and beverages has lost one point, driven down by the balances of opinion on the order books, despite the rebound of the balances of opinion on the change in past production and on personal production expectations. At 86, the climate of this sub-sector remains very degraded, approaching its level of June 2023 when it had reached its lowest level since January 2021.

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the synthetic indicator of the business climate has rebounded, driven by the balances of opinion on the order books, particularly for the computer, electronic and optical products.

The business climate indicator has won one point in the manufacture of transport equipment. It has rebounded in the manufacture of motor vehicles, driven by the clear rebound of the balance of opinion on personal production expectations.

Finally, the business climate in the “other industries” remains stable, below its average. At a more detailed level, the evolutions are contrasted: the climate has improved in the sector of basic metals and in the “other manufacturing industries” while it has clearly deteriorated in the sector of wood, paper, printing and in the one of rubber and plastic products.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2023-09 86.1 104.1 104.2 95.0
2023-08 87.3 101.3 103.4 95.1
2023-07 91.3 106.2 112.2 94.5
2023-06 85.6 105.3 105.4 94.7
2023-05 92.5 105.9 103.5 95.0
2023-04 93.8 109.6 103.2 97.8
2023-03 99.0 112.1 104.1 98.8
2023-02 102.3 109.9 104.1 96.1
2023-01 100.0 111.2 103.2 96.2
2022-12 99.3 111.7 102.3 95.8
2022-11 103.9 110.5 104.0 95.4
2022-10 107.7 113.3 105.8 96.5
2022-09 106.4 111.0 100.7 98.3
2022-08 106.9 111.8 100.7 99.6
2022-07 106.7 112.4 105.7 101.5
2022-06 106.2 111.8 102.2 105.5
2022-05 107.0 111.4 101.3 104.8
2022-04 109.0 113.0 101.4 108.7
2022-03 111.1 112.3 100.1 107.8
2022-02 111.1 114.7 103.9 111.1
2022-01 111.5 115.8 104.7 110.2
2021-12 116.2 116.1 91.5 112.0
2021-11 115.1 116.0 97.6 113.3
2021-10 112.5 115.3 91.5 111.2
2021-09 109.0 115.5 90.3 112.7
2021-08 110.9 118.5 93.1 113.0
2021-07 113.8 114.8 92.4 114.4
2021-06 115.9 115.1 90.1 110.6
2021-05 116.2 111.5 89.8 110.3
2021-04 105.5 112.7 88.7 107.3
2021-03 101.1 106.4 83.7 104.0
2021-02 94.4 105.2 89.1 101.1
2021-01 91.1 103.4 87.3 100.2
2020-12 89.0 95.4 89.1 101.6
2020-11 92.5 91.3 91.1 94.7
2020-10 93.4 93.2 92.4 95.5
2020-09 102.0 90.4 93.4 92.7
2020-08 96.5 89.6 91.0 88.0
2020-07 87.9 85.2 80.1 81.3
2020-06 90.6 79.4 76.2 78.7
2020-05 91.4 76.8 74.6 73.9
2020-04 92.9 76.9 72.3 72.7
2020-03 108.3 98.3 95.2 97.0
2020-02 107.7 99.1 99.4 99.9
2020-01 107.7 99.9 105.4 99.0
2019-12 107.4 97.2 101.0 97.7
2019-11 104.3 98.1 107.6 100.9
2019-10 105.0 96.0 102.0 99.4
2019-09 108.0 99.6 102.8 101.5
2019-08 108.6 98.7 101.5 101.7
2019-07 102.7 102.8 99.9 100.2
2019-06 108.4 98.8 100.6 100.7
2019-05 111.0 103.8 102.1 102.1
2019-04 106.9 100.8 100.5 100.6
2019-03 107.8 100.4 102.5 101.3
2019-02 107.8 104.3 99.9 101.0
2019-01 107.6 102.4 102.2 101.8
2018-12 107.7 102.5 103.5 102.1
2018-11 108.6 102.0 105.5 102.7
2018-10 101.9 106.2 104.9 103.2
2018-09 107.6 107.4 106.1 105.0
2018-08 107.7 106.8 106.8 105.7
2018-07 107.2 107.8 107.0 106.4
2018-06 109.3 107.4 110.0 105.6
2018-05 107.9 110.6 108.3 107.5
2018-04 109.8 109.0 111.7 107.4
2018-03 109.0 109.2 111.4 109.1
2018-02 109.5 110.0 112.0 109.9
2018-01 110.9 111.3 112.2 110.9
2017-12 111.2 110.9 111.4 110.4
2017-11 111.7 109.6 110.6 111.2
2017-10 111.4 108.9 109.6 110.9
2017-09 106.9 107.5 110.3 108.8
2017-08 108.5 105.7 109.0 108.1
2017-07 109.1 108.6 109.4 106.8
2017-06 111.5 108.1 105.2 108.4
2017-05 105.4 108.1 105.4 106.7
2017-04 104.8 106.3 104.5 107.5
2017-03 103.9 104.0 105.0 104.3
2017-02 104.9 103.3 106.1 106.1
2017-01 103.4 101.5 106.6 105.3
2016-12 108.4 103.1 105.0 104.7
2016-11 107.7 99.5 102.4 101.3
2016-10 106.4 97.3 106.2 101.0
2016-09 108.9 98.4 105.7 100.3
2016-08 99.2 98.2 104.4 101.2
2016-07 104.3 97.5 105.6 101.5
2016-06 102.9 97.1 106.3 101.3
2016-05 103.1 97.2 106.2 103.6
2016-04 105.8 99.9 109.5 101.1
2016-03 101.3 99.1 106.3 101.0
2016-02 100.0 100.7 109.5 99.7
2016-01 101.4 100.6 108.4 99.3
2015-12 99.8 98.1 108.2 101.5
2015-11 102.2 99.6 108.1 99.3
2015-10 104.1 98.1 108.3 99.7
2015-09 105.3 96.1 109.6 102.4
2015-08 103.0 97.3 108.6 101.3
2015-07 108.2 98.3 105.2 102.6
2015-06 104.8 97.1 105.6 100.7
2015-05 101.6 97.2 105.2 101.3
2015-04 104.5 96.6 107.4 100.4
2015-03 100.6 94.2 105.5 99.9
2015-02 99.2 95.0 101.0 100.0
2015-01 103.0 93.4 101.7 99.6
2014-12 99.0 92.1 99.8 100.0
2014-11 95.9 92.1 100.3 99.6
2014-10 95.4 92.6 97.4 98.3
2014-09 94.1 92.1 101.2 97.0
2014-08 95.4 93.4 98.0 100.3
2014-07 96.9 89.2 99.2 98.8
2014-06 95.4 91.8 98.3 98.3
2014-05 97.9 93.7 98.2 99.3
2014-04 95.6 92.8 102.9 100.0
2014-03 99.5 92.8 100.9 102.2
2014-02 98.9 93.8 98.4 98.1
2014-01 99.1 91.2 102.4 98.5
2013-12 97.9 91.9 99.9 99.0
2013-11 97.9 92.3 102.4 98.5
2013-10 95.2 90.3 103.8 97.5
2013-09 94.7 90.0 97.6 97.0
2013-08 95.2 91.6 101.5 96.9
2013-07 92.2 89.6 98.8 94.8
2013-06 92.4 89.2 94.8 93.0
2013-05 91.2 89.4 95.1 91.6
2013-04 91.4 89.6 92.9 89.0
2013-03 93.7 88.9 93.7 91.0
2013-02 97.7 88.9 94.5 90.1
2013-01 97.3 88.0 92.9 91.1
2012-12 98.4 87.6 92.4 91.7
2012-11 97.9 87.3 93.0 92.1
2012-10 90.7 86.2 96.0 89.2
2012-09 96.4 91.0 97.6 93.4
2012-08 93.5 90.3 95.4 93.3
2012-07 94.3 90.9 95.5 92.1
2012-06 94.7 91.0 95.8 93.4
2012-05 93.1 94.8 95.2 95.7
2012-04 98.8 95.7 94.4 97.6
2012-03 102.3 96.4 103.3 97.0
2012-02 100.2 96.1 94.0 95.7
2012-01 99.6 96.1 95.0 93.9
2011-12 98.2 96.1 100.3 94.3
2011-11 101.9 96.0 102.8 94.0
2011-10 104.2 98.2 100.4 96.2
2011-09 101.6 99.4 98.9 97.9
2011-08 103.3 100.3 102.1 100.2
2011-07 111.2 102.3 103.9 104.7
2011-06 108.3 104.0 109.6 108.7
2011-05 109.5 103.0 105.4 107.5
2011-04 108.7 104.5 106.1 109.8
2011-03 106.4 106.3 106.5 109.5
2011-02 107.0 101.8 99.5 108.2
2011-01 108.8 103.8 105.3 105.1

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) and [A38 and A64] Weights** (%) Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 20 91 87 86
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 106 101 104
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 4 118 110 116
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 96 94 95
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 104 100 101
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 19 112 103 104
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9 104 101 105
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 116 103 102
(C5) Other manufacturing 45 94 95 95
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 104 106 105
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 4 87 91 88
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 90 91 90
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 90 92 89
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 94 91 93
[CM] Other manufacturing industries / Manufacture of other industrial products 10 106 106 108
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sectors’ balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Revisions

The business climate in manufacturing industry of August 2023 has been revised upwards by one point (after rounding), due to the inclusion of late responses.

For further information

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 28 August and 18 September 2023.

Next issue: 19 October 2023 at 8:45 am.

Documentation

Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)

Abbreviated methodology (pdf,157 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 28 August and 18 September 2023.

Next issue: 19 October 2023 at 8:45 am.

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr
:

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