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Informations Rapides · 24 August 2023 · n° 208
Informations rapidesIn August 2023, the business climate in the industry has clearly degraded Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - August 2023

According to the business managers surveyed in August 2023, the business climate in the manufacturing industry has clearly degraded. At 96, the synthetic indicator has lost five points and lies at its lowest level since January 2021. The balances of opinion on the order-books and on the past production have mainly contributed to this degradation.

Informations rapides
No 208
Paru le :Paru le24/08/2023
Prochaine parution le : 21/06/2024 at 08:45 - June 2024

According to the business managers surveyed in August 2023, the business climate in the manufacturing industry has clearly degraded. At 96, the synthetic indicator has lost five points and lies at its lowest level since January 2021. The balances of opinion on the order-books and on the past production have mainly contributed to this degradation.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
2023-08 96.2
2023-07 100.7
2023-06 100.1
2023-05 98.9
2023-04 100.9
2023-03 103.6
2023-02 103.3
2023-01 102.2
2022-12 101.4
2022-11 101.6
2022-10 103.7
2022-09 102.7
2022-08 103.3
2022-07 105.3
2022-06 107.2
2022-05 106.6
2022-04 107.8
2022-03 107.5
2022-02 111.2
2022-01 112.2
2021-12 109.2
2021-11 110.1
2021-10 108.0
2021-09 107.7
2021-08 109.4
2021-07 109.1
2021-06 107.3
2021-05 107.4
2021-04 103.7
2021-03 98.5
2021-02 97.1
2021-01 95.8
2020-12 94.9
2020-11 92.4
2020-10 95.0
2020-09 95.1
2020-08 91.4
2020-07 81.3
2020-06 76.7
2020-05 69.8
2020-04 66.5
2020-03 97.4
2020-02 100.1
2020-01 101.9
2019-12 99.1
2019-11 102.5
2019-10 100.2
2019-09 102.4
2019-08 101.9
2019-07 101.0
2019-06 101.8
2019-05 103.4
2019-04 101.1
2019-03 103.4
2019-02 102.8
2019-01 103.0
2018-12 103.5
2018-11 105.5
2018-10 104.8
2018-09 107.9
2018-08 108.5
2018-07 108.4
2018-06 109.4
2018-05 109.5
2018-04 110.2
2018-03 110.4
2018-02 112.2
2018-01 113.6
2017-12 112.0
2017-11 112.0
2017-10 111.7
2017-09 111.4
2017-08 109.9
2017-07 108.4
2017-06 108.9
2017-05 108.2
2017-04 108.3
2017-03 105.2
2017-02 106.4
2017-01 105.8
2016-12 105.8
2016-11 102.1
2016-10 102.1
2016-09 103.4
2016-08 101.5
2016-07 101.5
2016-06 101.4
2016-05 104.3
2016-04 104.7
2016-03 102.4
2016-02 102.9
2016-01 102.7
2015-12 102.5
2015-11 102.3
2015-10 103.1
2015-09 104.7
2015-08 103.5
2015-07 101.4
2015-06 100.2
2015-05 101.7
2015-04 101.4
2015-03 98.8
2015-02 98.4
2015-01 98.7
2014-12 98.6
2014-11 98.7
2014-10 97.3
2014-09 96.8
2014-08 96.5
2014-07 96.1
2014-06 96.5
2014-05 98.3
2014-04 100.2
2014-03 100.7
2014-02 98.2
2014-01 99.5
2013-12 99.2
2013-11 98.1
2013-10 97.8
2013-09 95.7
2013-08 98.4
2013-07 94.6
2013-06 92.5
2013-05 91.8
2013-04 87.4
2013-03 90.3
2013-02 90.3
2013-01 89.6
2012-12 90.7
2012-11 91.5
2012-10 86.8
2012-09 92.4
2012-08 92.7
2012-07 90.8
2012-06 92.9
2012-05 94.6
2012-04 95.5
2012-03 96.3
2012-02 94.8
2012-01 94.8
2011-12 94.5
2011-11 97.4
2011-10 97.3
2011-09 99.1
2011-08 101.2
2011-07 104.8
2011-06 109.9
2011-05 107.2
2011-04 110.2
2011-03 110.2
2011-02 107.0
2011-01 108.8
2010-12 104.2
2010-11 101.7
2010-10 104.1
2010-09 102.9
2010-08 100.4
2010-07 97.2
2010-06 95.7
2010-05 96.5
2010-04 95.1
2010-03 91.1
2010-02 88.6
2010-01 90.2
2009-12 87.4
2009-11 87.5
2009-10 85.0
2009-09 83.8
2009-08 80.7
2009-07 76.1
2009-06 74.6
2009-05 71.9
2009-04 70.1
2009-03 66.1
2009-02 68.0
2009-01 72.2
2008-12 73.0
2008-11 79.4
2008-10 86.8
2008-09 91.4
2008-08 97.9
2008-07 98.6
2008-06 103.3
2008-05 104.0
2008-04 107.3
2008-03 110.0
2008-02 110.3
2008-01 110.5
2007-12 112.5
2007-11 112.2
2007-10 110.0
2007-09 110.5
2007-08 110.9
2007-07 111.5
2007-06 111.3
2007-05 110.0
2007-04 111.9
2007-03 111.3
2007-02 111.7
2007-01 108.3
2006-12 109.2
2006-11 109.6
2006-10 107.2
2006-09 108.1
2006-08 108.5
2006-07 108.9
2006-06 108.5
2006-05 108.8
2006-04 107.8
2006-03 106.3
2006-02 106.5
2006-01 103.0
2005-12 104.0
2005-11 100.9
2005-10 101.0
2005-09 98.8
2005-08 99.5
2005-07 100.0
2005-06 98.9
2005-05 96.9
2005-04 96.4
2005-03 99.6
2005-02 103.1
2005-01 103.3

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.* May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23
Business climate 100 99 100 101 96
Past production 5 -1 3 9 -5
Finished-goods inventory 12 14 13 16 18
Overall order books -18 -21 -18 -15 -21
Foreign order books -14 -14 -15 -5 -15
Past workforce size -8 9 9 8 4
Expected workforce size -9 11 11 10 10
Personal production expectations 6 9 10 -4 1
General production expectations -7 -7 -9 -9 -9
Expected trend in selling prices 4 -1 1 7 3
Economic uncertainty felt** 30 26 32 31 25
  • * Long-term average since 1976 except for the economic uncertainty felt (April 2021).
  • ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

The balance of opinion on the change in production over the last three months has clearly deteriorated

The balance of opinion on the change in production over the last three months has deteriorated: it is at its lowest since August 2020. On the contrary, the balance related to the change in production over the next three months has rebounded; however, it remains below its long-term average. The general production prospects in the industry have been considered relatively stable since June, with a balance of opinion that remains slightly below its average. The economic uncertainty felt by business leaders has diminished compared to last month.

The balances of opinion associated with the level of the order-books, overall and foreign, have distinctly shrunk and both of them have gone back below their long-term average.

The balance of opinion associated with the current level of the inventories of finished-goods has improved again and has moved away from its average.

The balance of opinion associated with the past change in the workforce size has decreased while the one related to the expected change is stable. Both of them remain well above their respective average.

The balance of opinion related to the expected trend in selling prices over the next three months has withdrawn just below its long-term average.

Finally, the share of companies declaring sourcing difficulties as a factor limiting their production is stable, at 22%. The share of companies declaring being limited in their production by workforce shortage has increased for the third month in a row, going from 17% in May to 26% in August. These shares remain well above their respective averages.

Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production*

Share of companies, in % of answers, SA
Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production* (Share of companies, in % of answers, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.** May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23
Difficulties of supply and demand 9 11 9 13 15
Sourcing difficulties 11 19 20 22 22
Workforce shortage 9 17 21 25 26
Difficulties of supply only 22 35 38 35 34
Difficulties of demand only 40 19 19 21 21
  • * Quaterly series from January 1991 then monthly series from May 2022
  • ** Long-term average since 1991 on monthly series (over the quarterly collection period, the point collected in the first month of each quarter was carried over identically to the following two months).
  • Sources : INSEE – Monthly business survey in industry

At the sub-sectoral level, only the climate in the “other industries” has not degraded, while remaining below its long-term average

In August 2023, the business climate indicator has sharply fallen in the manufacture of food products and beverages, driven down by the balance of opinion on the change in production and order books. At 87, the climate of this sub-sector is the most degraded.

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the synthetic indicator of the business climate has diminished to its average level (100), at its lowest since December 2020. The balances of opinion on the order-books have mainly contributed to this drop.

The business climate has also deteriorated in the manufacture of transport equipment. It has fallen in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers but remains above its average. In the “other transport equipment”, the climate has fallen sharply due to the decrease in the balances of opinion on global and foreign order books (the latter had risen significantly last month); the balance of opinion on the past production has also decreased. Here too, however, the synthetic indicator remains above its average.

Finally, the business climate in the “other industries”, which is relatively dull, has not deteriorated any further. The synthetic indicator is stable. The balance of opinion on the past production has declined and remains below its average, but those on the expected production and overall order books have rebounded.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2023-08 86.6 100.5 103.7 94.5
2023-07 91.3 106.2 112.2 94.5
2023-06 85.5 105.3 105.4 94.6
2023-05 92.4 105.9 103.5 95.0
2023-04 93.8 109.6 103.2 97.8
2023-03 99.0 112.1 104.1 98.8
2023-02 102.3 109.9 104.1 96.1
2023-01 100.0 111.2 103.2 96.2
2022-12 99.3 111.7 102.3 95.8
2022-11 103.8 110.5 104.0 95.4
2022-10 107.7 113.3 105.8 96.5
2022-09 106.4 111.0 100.7 98.3
2022-08 106.8 111.8 100.7 99.6
2022-07 106.7 112.4 105.7 101.5
2022-06 106.2 111.8 102.2 105.5
2022-05 107.0 111.4 101.3 104.8
2022-04 109.0 113.0 101.4 108.7
2022-03 111.1 112.3 100.1 107.8
2022-02 111.1 114.7 104.0 111.1
2022-01 111.5 115.8 104.7 110.2
2021-12 116.2 116.1 91.5 112.0
2021-11 115.0 116.0 97.6 113.3
2021-10 112.5 115.3 91.6 111.2
2021-09 109.0 115.5 90.3 112.7
2021-08 110.9 118.5 93.1 112.9
2021-07 113.8 114.8 92.4 114.4
2021-06 115.9 115.1 90.1 110.6
2021-05 116.2 111.5 89.9 110.3
2021-04 105.5 112.7 88.7 107.3
2021-03 101.1 106.4 83.7 104.0
2021-02 94.4 105.2 89.1 101.1
2021-01 91.1 103.4 87.3 100.2
2020-12 89.0 95.4 89.1 101.6
2020-11 92.4 91.3 91.1 94.7
2020-10 93.4 93.2 92.4 95.5
2020-09 102.0 90.4 93.4 92.7
2020-08 96.4 89.6 91.1 88.0
2020-07 87.9 85.2 80.2 81.3
2020-06 90.5 79.4 76.3 78.7
2020-05 91.4 76.8 74.7 73.9
2020-04 92.8 77.0 72.4 72.7
2020-03 108.3 98.3 95.3 97.0
2020-02 107.6 99.1 99.4 99.9
2020-01 107.7 99.9 105.4 99.0
2019-12 107.3 97.2 101.0 97.6
2019-11 104.2 98.1 107.6 100.8
2019-10 105.0 96.0 102.0 99.4
2019-09 108.0 99.6 102.8 101.5
2019-08 108.6 98.7 101.5 101.7
2019-07 102.7 102.8 99.9 100.2
2019-06 108.4 98.8 100.6 100.7
2019-05 111.0 103.9 102.1 102.1
2019-04 106.8 100.9 100.6 100.6
2019-03 107.8 100.4 102.5 101.2
2019-02 107.8 104.3 100.0 101.0
2019-01 107.5 102.5 102.2 101.8
2018-12 107.7 102.5 103.5 102.1
2018-11 108.6 102.0 105.5 102.7
2018-10 101.9 106.2 104.9 103.2
2018-09 107.6 107.4 106.1 105.0
2018-08 107.7 106.8 106.8 105.6
2018-07 107.1 107.8 107.0 106.4
2018-06 109.3 107.4 110.0 105.6
2018-05 107.9 110.6 108.3 107.5
2018-04 109.7 109.0 111.7 107.4
2018-03 109.0 109.2 111.4 109.1
2018-02 109.5 110.0 112.0 109.9
2018-01 110.9 111.3 112.2 110.8
2017-12 111.2 110.9 111.4 110.4
2017-11 111.7 109.6 110.6 111.1
2017-10 111.4 108.9 109.6 110.8
2017-09 106.9 107.5 110.3 108.8
2017-08 108.5 105.7 109.0 108.1
2017-07 109.1 108.6 109.4 106.8
2017-06 111.5 108.1 105.2 108.4
2017-05 105.4 108.1 105.4 106.7
2017-04 104.8 106.3 104.5 107.5
2017-03 103.8 104.0 105.0 104.3
2017-02 104.9 103.3 106.1 106.1
2017-01 103.4 101.5 106.6 105.3
2016-12 108.3 103.1 105.0 104.7
2016-11 107.7 99.5 102.4 101.3
2016-10 106.4 97.4 106.2 101.0
2016-09 108.8 98.4 105.7 100.3
2016-08 99.2 98.2 104.4 101.2
2016-07 104.3 97.5 105.6 101.5
2016-06 102.9 97.2 106.3 101.3
2016-05 103.1 97.2 106.2 103.6
2016-04 105.7 100.0 109.5 101.0
2016-03 101.3 99.1 106.3 101.0
2016-02 99.9 100.7 109.5 99.7
2016-01 101.4 100.6 108.4 99.3
2015-12 99.7 98.1 108.2 101.5
2015-11 102.2 99.6 108.1 99.3
2015-10 104.1 98.1 108.3 99.7
2015-09 105.3 96.1 109.6 102.4
2015-08 103.0 97.3 108.6 101.3
2015-07 108.2 98.3 105.2 102.6
2015-06 104.8 97.1 105.6 100.7
2015-05 101.6 97.2 105.2 101.3
2015-04 104.5 96.7 107.4 100.4
2015-03 100.6 94.2 105.5 99.9
2015-02 99.2 95.0 101.0 100.0
2015-01 102.9 93.4 101.8 99.5
2014-12 98.9 92.1 99.8 100.0
2014-11 95.9 92.1 100.3 99.6
2014-10 95.3 92.6 97.4 98.3
2014-09 94.1 92.2 101.2 97.0
2014-08 95.3 93.4 98.0 100.3
2014-07 96.9 89.2 99.2 98.8
2014-06 95.3 91.8 98.3 98.3
2014-05 97.9 93.7 98.2 99.3
2014-04 95.6 92.8 102.9 100.0
2014-03 99.5 92.8 100.9 102.2
2014-02 98.9 93.8 98.4 98.1
2014-01 99.1 91.2 102.4 98.5
2013-12 97.9 91.9 99.9 99.0
2013-11 97.8 92.3 102.4 98.5
2013-10 95.2 90.3 103.8 97.5
2013-09 94.6 90.0 97.6 97.0
2013-08 95.1 91.6 101.5 96.9
2013-07 92.1 89.6 98.8 94.8
2013-06 92.4 89.2 94.8 93.0
2013-05 91.2 89.4 95.1 91.6
2013-04 91.3 89.6 92.9 89.0
2013-03 93.6 88.9 93.7 91.0
2013-02 97.7 88.9 94.5 90.1
2013-01 97.2 88.0 92.9 91.1
2012-12 98.4 87.6 92.4 91.7
2012-11 97.8 87.4 93.0 92.1
2012-10 90.6 86.2 96.0 89.2
2012-09 96.4 91.0 97.6 93.4
2012-08 93.4 90.3 95.4 93.3
2012-07 94.2 90.9 95.5 92.1
2012-06 94.7 91.0 95.8 93.4
2012-05 93.0 94.9 95.2 95.7
2012-04 98.8 95.7 94.4 97.6
2012-03 102.2 96.4 103.3 96.9
2012-02 100.2 96.1 94.0 95.7
2012-01 99.5 96.1 95.0 93.9
2011-12 98.2 96.1 100.3 94.3
2011-11 101.8 96.0 102.8 94.0
2011-10 104.1 98.2 100.4 96.2
2011-09 101.6 99.4 98.9 97.9
2011-08 103.2 100.3 102.1 100.2
2011-07 111.2 102.3 103.9 104.7
2011-06 108.3 104.0 109.6 108.6
2011-05 109.5 103.1 105.4 107.5
2011-04 108.7 104.5 106.1 109.8
2011-03 106.4 106.3 106.5 109.5
2011-02 107.0 101.8 99.5 108.2
2011-01 108.8 103.8 105.3 105.1

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) and [A38 and A64] Weights** (%) Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 20 86 91 87
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 105 106 100
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 4 115 118 111
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 97 96 91
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 103 104 100
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 19 105 112 104
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9 101 104 101
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 105 116 103
(C5) Other manufacturing 45 95 94 94
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 106 104 104
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 4 87 87 89
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 91 90 90
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 89 90 91
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 92 94 90
[CM] Other manufacturing industries / Manufacture of other industrial products 10 106 106 106
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sectors’ balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Revisions

The business climate in manufacturing industry of July 2023 has been revised upwards by one point (after rounding), due to the inclusion of late responses.

For further information

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 July and 21 August 2023.

Next issue: 21 September 2023 at 8:45 am.

Pour en savoir plus

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 July and 21 August 2023.

Next issue: 21 September 2023 at 8:45 am.

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr
: