Informations Rapides · 20 July 2023 · n° 180
In July 2023, the business climate in manufacturing industry is stable Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - July 2023

According to the business managers surveyed in July 2023, the business climate in the manufacturing industry is stable. At 100, the synthetic indicator remains at its long-term average level. The balances of opinion on the order-books and on the past production have risen while the one on the change in production over the next three months has fallen sharply.

Informations rapides

N^o 180

Paru le :Paru le20/07/2023

Prochaine parution le : 22/05/2025 at 08:45 - May 2025

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Warning

The seasonal coefficients as well as the parameters of the composite indicators have been updated in July 2023. This has led to revisions in the set of results previously released in this survey. Those revisions are for the most part quite minor and have no impact on the analysis of the business situation.

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Sommaire

The balances of opinion on the order-books have improved
The business climate has rebounded in the manufacture of food products and beverages, while remaining degraded
Revisions
For further information

Graphique
Tableau

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tableauBusiness climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
	Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
2023-07	100.4
2023-06	100.1
2023-05	98.9
2023-04	100.9
2023-03	103.6
2023-02	103.3
2023-01	102.2
2022-12	101.4
2022-11	101.5
2022-10	103.6
2022-09	102.7
2022-08	103.3
2022-07	105.3
2022-06	107.2
2022-05	106.6
2022-04	107.8
2022-03	107.5
2022-02	111.2
2022-01	112.2
2021-12	109.2
2021-11	110.0
2021-10	107.9
2021-09	107.6
2021-08	109.4
2021-07	109.1
2021-06	107.3
2021-05	107.3
2021-04	103.7
2021-03	98.5
2021-02	97.1
2021-01	95.8
2020-12	94.9
2020-11	92.5
2020-10	95.0
2020-09	95.1
2020-08	91.4
2020-07	81.3
2020-06	76.7
2020-05	69.8
2020-04	66.5
2020-03	97.4
2020-02	100.1
2020-01	101.9
2019-12	99.1
2019-11	102.5
2019-10	100.2
2019-09	102.4
2019-08	101.9
2019-07	101.0
2019-06	101.8
2019-05	103.4
2019-04	101.0
2019-03	103.4
2019-02	102.8
2019-01	103.0
2018-12	103.5
2018-11	105.5
2018-10	104.8
2018-09	107.9
2018-08	108.5
2018-07	108.4
2018-06	109.4
2018-05	109.5
2018-04	110.2
2018-03	110.4
2018-02	112.2
2018-01	113.5
2017-12	112.0
2017-11	111.9
2017-10	111.7
2017-09	111.4
2017-08	109.9
2017-07	108.4
2017-06	108.9
2017-05	108.2
2017-04	108.3
2017-03	105.2
2017-02	106.4
2017-01	105.8
2016-12	105.8
2016-11	102.1
2016-10	102.1
2016-09	103.4
2016-08	101.5
2016-07	101.5
2016-06	101.4
2016-05	104.3
2016-04	104.7
2016-03	102.4
2016-02	102.9
2016-01	102.7
2015-12	102.4
2015-11	102.3
2015-10	103.1
2015-09	104.7
2015-08	103.5
2015-07	101.4
2015-06	100.2
2015-05	101.7
2015-04	101.4
2015-03	98.8
2015-02	98.3
2015-01	98.7
2014-12	98.6
2014-11	98.7
2014-10	97.3
2014-09	96.8
2014-08	96.5
2014-07	96.1
2014-06	96.5
2014-05	98.3
2014-04	100.2
2014-03	100.7
2014-02	98.2
2014-01	99.5
2013-12	99.2
2013-11	98.1
2013-10	97.8
2013-09	95.7
2013-08	98.4
2013-07	94.6
2013-06	92.5
2013-05	91.8
2013-04	87.4
2013-03	90.3
2013-02	90.3
2013-01	89.6
2012-12	90.7
2012-11	91.5
2012-10	86.8
2012-09	92.4
2012-08	92.7
2012-07	90.8
2012-06	92.9
2012-05	94.6
2012-04	95.5
2012-03	96.3
2012-02	94.8
2012-01	94.8
2011-12	94.5
2011-11	97.4
2011-10	97.2
2011-09	99.1
2011-08	101.2
2011-07	104.8
2011-06	109.9
2011-05	107.2
2011-04	110.2
2011-03	110.2
2011-02	107.0
2011-01	108.8
2010-12	104.2
2010-11	101.7
2010-10	104.1
2010-09	102.9
2010-08	100.4
2010-07	97.2
2010-06	95.7
2010-05	96.5
2010-04	95.1
2010-03	91.1
2010-02	88.6
2010-01	90.2
2009-12	87.4
2009-11	87.5
2009-10	85.0
2009-09	83.8
2009-08	80.7
2009-07	76.2
2009-06	74.6
2009-05	71.9
2009-04	70.1
2009-03	66.1
2009-02	68.0
2009-01	72.2
2008-12	73.0
2008-11	79.5
2008-10	86.8
2008-09	91.4
2008-08	97.9
2008-07	98.6
2008-06	103.3
2008-05	104.0
2008-04	107.3
2008-03	109.9
2008-02	110.3
2008-01	110.5
2007-12	112.5
2007-11	112.2
2007-10	109.9
2007-09	110.5
2007-08	110.9
2007-07	111.5
2007-06	111.2
2007-05	110.0
2007-04	111.9
2007-03	111.3
2007-02	111.7
2007-01	108.3
2006-12	109.2
2006-11	109.6
2006-10	107.1
2006-09	108.1
2006-08	108.5
2006-07	108.9
2006-06	108.5
2006-05	108.8
2006-04	107.8
2006-03	106.3
2006-02	106.5
2006-01	103.0
2005-12	104.0
2005-11	100.9
2005-10	101.0
2005-09	98.8
2005-08	99.5
2005-07	100.0
2005-06	98.9
2005-05	96.9
2005-04	96.4
2005-03	99.6
2005-02	103.1
2005-01	103.2

graphiqueBusiness climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

tableauIndustrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry

Balance of opinion, in %, SA

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Manufacturing industry	Ave.*	Apr-23	May-23	Jun-23	Jul-23
Business climate	100	101	99	100	100
Past production	5	10	-1	3	9
Finished-goods inventory	12	22	14	13	15
Overall order books	-18	-18	-21	-18	-15
Foreign order books	-14	-13	-14	-15	-6
Past workforce size	-8	8	9	9	7
Expected workforce size	-10	12	11	11	10
Personal production expectations	6	8	9	10	-5
General production expectations	-7	-2	-7	-9	-9
Expected trend in selling prices	4	13	-1	1	7
Economic uncertainty felt**	30	30	26	32	32

* Long-term average since 1976 except for the economic uncertainty felt (April 2021).
** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion
Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

The balances of opinion on the order-books have improved

In July 2023, in the manufacturing industry, the balance of opinion on the change in production over the last three months has improved and has gone back above its average. On the contrary, the balance of opinion on the personal production prospects over the next three months has largely degraded and has gone back below its average. It has reached its lowest level since November 2020. This balance has been mainly driven down by the “other transport equipment” (due to production constraints) and the “other manufacturing”. However, the general production prospects in the industry have remained unaltered, as well as the balance of opinion related to economic uncertainty felt by the business managers.

The balance of opinion associated with the level of the overall order-books has increased again and has moved away from its average. The one associated with the level of the foreign order-books has distinctly straightened up after three months of decline in a row and has gone back above its own.

The balance of opinion associated with the current level of the inventories of finished-goods has improved by a few and has moved away from its average.

The balances of opinion associated with the past and expected change in the workforce size have slightly diminished but both of them remain largely above their average.

The balance of opinion related to the expected trend in selling prices over the next three months has increased again and has gone back above its long-term average.

The share of companies declaring sourcing difficulties as a factor limiting their production has also increased again, at 23%. The share of companies declaring being limited in their production by workforce shortage has also increased for the second month in a row and has gone from 21% to 25%. These shares remain well above their respective averages.

tableauShare of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production*

Share of companies, in % of answers, SA

Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production* (Share of companies, in % of answers, SA)
Manufacturing industry	Ave.**	Apr-23	May-23	Jun-23	Jul-23
Difficulties of supply and demand	9	15	11	9	13
Sourcing difficulties	11	24	19	20	23
Workforce shortage	9	20	17	21	25
Difficulties of supply only	22	38	35	38	35
Difficulties of demand only	40	18	19	19	20

* Quaterly series from January 1991 then monthly series from May 2022
** Long-term average since 1991 on monthly series (over the quarterly collection period, the point collected in the first month of each quarter was carried over identically to the following two months).
Sources : INSEE – Monthly business survey in industry

The business climate has rebounded in the manufacture of food products and beverages, while remaining degraded

In July 2023, in the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate indicator has clearly rebounded after four months of decline. It has especially been driven by the balances of opinion on the overall order-books and on the past change in production.

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods the business climate has improved somewhat and has moved away from its average.

The business climate has improved in the manufacture of transport equipment. It has got better in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, driven by the balance of opinion on the past production. In the “other transport equipment” the climate has strongly improved because of the increase in the balances of opinion on the overall and foreign order-books. The synthetic indicator has reached there its highest level since 2021.

Finally, the business climate has deteriorated in the “other industries” sector. The synthetic indicator remains under its long-term average since September 2022.

Graphique
Tableau

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tableauBusiness climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
	(C1)	(C3)	(C4)	(C5)
2023-07	92.3	106.7	112.2	93.2
2023-06	85.5	105.3	105.4	94.6
2023-05	92.4	105.9	103.5	95.0
2023-04	93.7	109.6	103.2	97.8
2023-03	98.9	112.0	104.1	98.8
2023-02	102.2	109.9	104.1	96.1
2023-01	100.0	111.2	103.2	96.2
2022-12	99.2	111.7	102.3	95.8
2022-11	103.8	110.5	104.0	95.4
2022-10	107.7	113.3	105.8	96.5
2022-09	106.4	111.0	100.7	98.3
2022-08	106.8	111.8	100.7	99.6
2022-07	106.7	112.3	105.7	101.5
2022-06	106.2	111.8	102.2	105.5
2022-05	107.0	111.3	101.3	104.8
2022-04	109.0	113.0	101.4	108.6
2022-03	111.0	112.2	100.1	107.8
2022-02	111.1	114.7	104.0	111.1
2022-01	111.5	115.8	104.8	110.2
2021-12	116.2	116.1	91.5	111.9
2021-11	115.0	116.0	97.7	113.3
2021-10	112.4	115.3	91.6	111.1
2021-09	109.0	115.5	90.3	112.7
2021-08	110.9	118.5	93.1	112.9
2021-07	113.8	114.8	92.4	114.4
2021-06	115.9	115.0	90.1	110.5
2021-05	116.2	111.5	89.9	110.3
2021-04	105.5	112.6	88.7	107.3
2021-03	101.0	106.4	83.8	104.0
2021-02	94.4	105.2	89.1	101.1
2021-01	91.0	103.4	87.3	100.2
2020-12	88.9	95.4	89.1	101.6
2020-11	92.4	91.3	91.1	94.7
2020-10	93.3	93.2	92.4	95.5
2020-09	102.0	90.4	93.4	92.7
2020-08	96.4	89.7	91.1	88.0
2020-07	87.8	85.2	80.2	81.3
2020-06	90.5	79.5	76.3	78.7
2020-05	91.4	76.9	74.7	73.9
2020-04	92.8	77.0	72.4	72.7
2020-03	108.2	98.3	95.3	97.0
2020-02	107.6	99.1	99.4	99.9
2020-01	107.7	99.9	105.4	99.0
2019-12	107.3	97.2	101.0	97.6
2019-11	104.2	98.1	107.6	100.8
2019-10	105.0	96.0	102.0	99.4
2019-09	108.0	99.6	102.8	101.5
2019-08	108.6	98.7	101.5	101.7
2019-07	102.6	102.8	100.0	100.2
2019-06	108.3	98.8	100.6	100.7
2019-05	110.9	103.8	102.1	102.1
2019-04	106.8	100.9	100.6	100.6
2019-03	107.8	100.4	102.5	101.2
2019-02	107.8	104.3	100.0	100.9
2019-01	107.5	102.4	102.2	101.8
2018-12	107.7	102.5	103.5	102.1
2018-11	108.6	102.0	105.5	102.7
2018-10	101.9	106.2	104.9	103.2
2018-09	107.5	107.4	106.1	105.0
2018-08	107.6	106.8	106.8	105.6
2018-07	107.1	107.8	107.0	106.4
2018-06	109.3	107.4	110.0	105.6
2018-05	107.9	110.6	108.3	107.5
2018-04	109.7	109.0	111.7	107.3
2018-03	109.0	109.2	111.4	109.0
2018-02	109.5	110.0	112.0	109.8
2018-01	110.8	111.3	112.2	110.8
2017-12	111.2	110.9	111.4	110.3
2017-11	111.7	109.6	110.6	111.1
2017-10	111.3	108.9	109.6	110.8
2017-09	106.8	107.5	110.3	108.8
2017-08	108.4	105.7	109.0	108.1
2017-07	109.1	108.6	109.4	106.8
2017-06	111.5	108.1	105.2	108.4
2017-05	105.4	108.1	105.4	106.7
2017-04	104.7	106.3	104.5	107.5
2017-03	103.8	104.0	105.0	104.3
2017-02	104.8	103.3	106.1	106.1
2017-01	103.4	101.5	106.6	105.3
2016-12	108.3	103.1	105.0	104.7
2016-11	107.6	99.5	102.4	101.3
2016-10	106.4	97.4	106.2	101.0
2016-09	108.8	98.4	105.7	100.3
2016-08	99.1	98.2	104.4	101.2
2016-07	104.3	97.5	105.6	101.5
2016-06	102.9	97.2	106.3	101.3
2016-05	103.1	97.3	106.2	103.6
2016-04	105.7	100.0	109.5	101.0
2016-03	101.3	99.1	106.3	100.9
2016-02	99.9	100.7	109.5	99.7
2016-01	101.4	100.6	108.4	99.3
2015-12	99.7	98.1	108.2	101.5
2015-11	102.2	99.6	108.1	99.3
2015-10	104.1	98.1	108.3	99.7
2015-09	105.3	96.1	109.6	102.4
2015-08	102.9	97.3	108.6	101.3
2015-07	108.2	98.3	105.2	102.6
2015-06	104.8	97.1	105.6	100.7
2015-05	101.6	97.2	105.2	101.3
2015-04	104.4	96.7	107.4	100.4
2015-03	100.6	94.3	105.5	99.9
2015-02	99.2	95.0	101.0	100.0
2015-01	102.9	93.4	101.8	99.5
2014-12	98.9	92.1	99.8	100.0
2014-11	95.8	92.1	100.3	99.6
2014-10	95.3	92.6	97.5	98.3
2014-09	94.0	92.2	101.2	97.0
2014-08	95.3	93.4	98.0	100.3
2014-07	96.8	89.3	99.2	98.8
2014-06	95.3	91.8	98.3	98.3
2014-05	97.8	93.7	98.2	99.2
2014-04	95.6	92.8	102.9	100.0
2014-03	99.4	92.8	100.9	102.2
2014-02	98.9	93.8	98.4	98.1
2014-01	99.1	91.2	102.4	98.5
2013-12	97.9	91.9	99.9	98.9
2013-11	97.8	92.3	102.4	98.5
2013-10	95.2	90.3	103.8	97.5
2013-09	94.6	90.0	97.6	97.0
2013-08	95.1	91.6	101.6	96.9
2013-07	92.1	89.6	98.8	94.8
2013-06	92.3	89.2	94.9	93.0
2013-05	91.1	89.5	95.1	91.6
2013-04	91.3	89.6	92.9	89.0
2013-03	93.6	89.0	93.7	91.0
2013-02	97.6	88.9	94.5	90.1
2013-01	97.2	88.0	92.9	91.1
2012-12	98.4	87.6	92.5	91.7
2012-11	97.8	87.4	93.0	92.1
2012-10	90.6	86.3	96.0	89.2
2012-09	96.4	91.1	97.6	93.4
2012-08	93.4	90.3	95.4	93.3
2012-07	94.2	90.9	95.6	92.1
2012-06	94.6	91.0	95.8	93.4
2012-05	93.0	94.9	95.2	95.7
2012-04	98.7	95.8	94.5	97.6
2012-03	102.2	96.4	103.3	96.9
2012-02	100.2	96.1	94.0	95.7
2012-01	99.5	96.1	95.0	93.9
2011-12	98.2	96.1	100.3	94.3
2011-11	101.8	96.0	102.8	94.0
2011-10	104.1	98.2	100.4	96.2
2011-09	101.6	99.4	98.9	97.9
2011-08	103.2	100.3	102.1	100.2
2011-07	111.2	102.3	103.9	104.7
2011-06	108.2	104.0	109.6	108.6
2011-05	109.5	103.1	105.4	107.5
2011-04	108.7	104.5	106.2	109.8
2011-03	106.4	106.3	106.5	109.5
2011-02	107.0	101.8	99.5	108.2
2011-01	108.7	103.8	105.3	105.0

graphiqueBusiness climates in a sector-based approach

tableauBusiness climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990

Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) and [A38 and A64]	Weights** (%)	May-23	Jun-23	Jul-23
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages	20	92	85	92
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods	11	106	105	107
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products	4	113	115	121
[CJ] Electrical equipment	3	98	97	95
[CK] Machinery and equipment	5	104	103	104
(C4) Man. of transport equipment	19	103	105	112
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers	9	98	101	103
[CL2] Other transport equipment	10	105	105	117
(C5) Other manufacturing	45	95	95	93
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry	2	110	106	104
[CC] Wood, paper, printing	4	88	86	86
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products	8	92	91	87
[CG] Rubber and plastic products	7	89	89	89
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products	11	93	92	93
[CM] Other manufacturing industries / Manufacture of other industrial products	10	103	106	106

* NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
** Weights used to aggregate sub-sectors’ balances of opinion.
Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Revisions

The business climate in manufacturing industry of June 2023 has been revised downwards by one point at 100 (after rounding), due to the inclusion of late responses and the updating of seasonal coefficients and synthetic indicator parameters.

For further information

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 26 June and 17 July 2023.

Next issue: 24 August 2023 at 8:45 am.