France’s deficit in protein-rich products dates back nearly 50 years. Many protein plans aimed at boosting the supply of legumes have succeeded one another without managing to solve the issue. So, is French agriculture economically tied to grain production facilitated by imports of synthetic fertilisers and to off-farm livestock production facilitated by soya imports? The uniqueness of this quantitative analysis is that it considers the role of the potential demand of French consumers for products that are free from genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Our prospective simulations show that, while this demand is a far more powerful driver for reducing imports of GMO soya cake than traditional subsidies for legumes, it is unlikely to lead to a significant improvement in protein self-sufficiency, as net imports of other protein-rich products are increasing. In contrast, substantial progress could be made by improving the productivity of forage land.

Citation: Gohin, A. & Issanchou, A. (2022). Protein Deficit in France – A Prospective Analysis. Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, 536-37, 115–131. doi: 10.24187/ecostat.2022.536.2083