Informations Rapides ·
24 November 2021 · n° 302
In November 2021, the business climate has continued to improve in services Monthly survey of services - November 2021
According to the business managers surveyed in November 2021, the business climate has continued to improve in services. At 114, the business climate indicator that synthetizes it has gained one point and has reached its highest level since December 2000, far above its long-term average (100).
According to the business managers surveyed in November 2021, the business climate has continued to improve in services. At 114, the business climate indicator that synthetizes it has gained one point and has reached its highest level since December 2000, far above its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2005-01 | 106.6 |
| 2005-02 | 106.4 |
| 2005-03 | 108.3 |
| 2005-04 | 108.1 |
| 2005-05 | 106.2 |
| 2005-06 | 108.4 |
| 2005-07 | 107.8 |
| 2005-08 | 107.4 |
| 2005-09 | 107.1 |
| 2005-10 | 108.6 |
| 2005-11 | 106.5 |
| 2005-12 | 106.8 |
| 2006-01 | 108.7 |
| 2006-02 | 106.4 |
| 2006-03 | 107.7 |
| 2006-04 | 107.9 |
| 2006-05 | 110.4 |
| 2006-06 | 109.2 |
| 2006-07 | 110.3 |
| 2006-08 | 110.4 |
| 2006-09 | 110.6 |
| 2006-10 | 110.8 |
| 2006-11 | 112.9 |
| 2006-12 | 111.4 |
| 2007-01 | 110.8 |
| 2007-02 | 112.2 |
| 2007-03 | 113.1 |
| 2007-04 | 112.9 |
| 2007-05 | 112.7 |
| 2007-06 | 112.4 |
| 2007-07 | 113.0 |
| 2007-08 | 112.2 |
| 2007-09 | 111.4 |
| 2007-10 | 110.1 |
| 2007-11 | 110.2 |
| 2007-12 | 109.2 |
| 2008-01 | 110.5 |
| 2008-02 | 108.7 |
| 2008-03 | 108.8 |
| 2008-04 | 107.3 |
| 2008-05 | 104.9 |
| 2008-06 | 101.9 |
| 2008-07 | 97.7 |
| 2008-08 | 96.3 |
| 2008-09 | 94.4 |
| 2008-10 | 86.1 |
| 2008-11 | 82.2 |
| 2008-12 | 79.1 |
| 2009-01 | 76.6 |
| 2009-02 | 75.5 |
| 2009-03 | 70.5 |
| 2009-04 | 70.6 |
| 2009-05 | 74.5 |
| 2009-06 | 79.0 |
| 2009-07 | 82.5 |
| 2009-08 | 85.0 |
| 2009-09 | 88.2 |
| 2009-10 | 91.2 |
| 2009-11 | 92.5 |
| 2009-12 | 93.1 |
| 2010-01 | 94.4 |
| 2010-02 | 94.6 |
| 2010-03 | 94.9 |
| 2010-04 | 97.9 |
| 2010-05 | 99.5 |
| 2010-06 | 98.6 |
| 2010-07 | 99.4 |
| 2010-08 | 100.9 |
| 2010-09 | 101.8 |
| 2010-10 | 103.1 |
| 2010-11 | 104.9 |
| 2010-12 | 106.9 |
| 2011-01 | 107.1 |
| 2011-02 | 109.2 |
| 2011-03 | 110.4 |
| 2011-04 | 109.1 |
| 2011-05 | 107.8 |
| 2011-06 | 107.3 |
| 2011-07 | 105.3 |
| 2011-08 | 101.1 |
| 2011-09 | 99.0 |
| 2011-10 | 97.9 |
| 2011-11 | 95.8 |
| 2011-12 | 95.5 |
| 2012-01 | 93.7 |
| 2012-02 | 93.0 |
| 2012-03 | 94.4 |
| 2012-04 | 96.3 |
| 2012-05 | 92.8 |
| 2012-06 | 90.9 |
| 2012-07 | 90.5 |
| 2012-08 | 88.4 |
| 2012-09 | 88.2 |
| 2012-10 | 87.1 |
| 2012-11 | 86.5 |
| 2012-12 | 88.0 |
| 2013-01 | 89.0 |
| 2013-02 | 87.9 |
| 2013-03 | 85.1 |
| 2013-04 | 84.3 |
| 2013-05 | 85.7 |
| 2013-06 | 86.9 |
| 2013-07 | 87.4 |
| 2013-08 | 89.3 |
| 2013-09 | 92.8 |
| 2013-10 | 92.2 |
| 2013-11 | 92.9 |
| 2013-12 | 91.5 |
| 2014-01 | 92.8 |
| 2014-02 | 92.7 |
| 2014-03 | 93.5 |
| 2014-04 | 93.8 |
| 2014-05 | 92.7 |
| 2014-06 | 92.8 |
| 2014-07 | 93.1 |
| 2014-08 | 92.2 |
| 2014-09 | 91.6 |
| 2014-10 | 91.9 |
| 2014-11 | 91.8 |
| 2014-12 | 91.9 |
| 2015-01 | 91.7 |
| 2015-02 | 92.0 |
| 2015-03 | 92.8 |
| 2015-04 | 94.4 |
| 2015-05 | 95.8 |
| 2015-06 | 97.2 |
| 2015-07 | 97.8 |
| 2015-08 | 98.9 |
| 2015-09 | 97.9 |
| 2015-10 | 99.8 |
| 2015-11 | 99.6 |
| 2015-12 | 97.4 |
| 2016-01 | 100.3 |
| 2016-02 | 100.2 |
| 2016-03 | 99.8 |
| 2016-04 | 98.6 |
| 2016-05 | 100.9 |
| 2016-06 | 99.4 |
| 2016-07 | 100.6 |
| 2016-08 | 100.4 |
| 2016-09 | 101.0 |
| 2016-10 | 100.9 |
| 2016-11 | 101.0 |
| 2016-12 | 103.6 |
| 2017-01 | 101.8 |
| 2017-02 | 102.9 |
| 2017-03 | 103.3 |
| 2017-04 | 103.3 |
| 2017-05 | 102.7 |
| 2017-06 | 103.5 |
| 2017-07 | 103.9 |
| 2017-08 | 106.1 |
| 2017-09 | 106.5 |
| 2017-10 | 106.7 |
| 2017-11 | 107.3 |
| 2017-12 | 108.5 |
| 2018-01 | 107.6 |
| 2018-02 | 106.6 |
| 2018-03 | 106.7 |
| 2018-04 | 105.9 |
| 2018-05 | 104.2 |
| 2018-06 | 104.6 |
| 2018-07 | 104.5 |
| 2018-08 | 104.1 |
| 2018-09 | 104.5 |
| 2018-10 | 103.3 |
| 2018-11 | 103.8 |
| 2018-12 | 102.2 |
| 2019-01 | 103.7 |
| 2019-02 | 103.8 |
| 2019-03 | 104.8 |
| 2019-04 | 105.6 |
| 2019-05 | 105.6 |
| 2019-06 | 105.8 |
| 2019-07 | 105.2 |
| 2019-08 | 105.1 |
| 2019-09 | 105.7 |
| 2019-10 | 105.8 |
| 2019-11 | 106.3 |
| 2019-12 | 106.5 |
| 2020-01 | 106.2 |
| 2020-02 | 106.1 |
| 2020-03 | 93.0 |
| 2020-04 | 41.9 |
| 2020-05 | 51.8 |
| 2020-06 | 78.0 |
| 2020-07 | 88.8 |
| 2020-08 | 93.6 |
| 2020-09 | 94.4 |
| 2020-10 | 88.8 |
| 2020-11 | 78.1 |
| 2020-12 | 90.0 |
| 2021-01 | 91.4 |
| 2021-02 | 88.5 |
| 2021-03 | 93.8 |
| 2021-04 | 91.6 |
| 2021-05 | 106.4 |
| 2021-06 | 111.7 |
| 2021-07 | 110.9 |
| 2021-08 | 108.5 |
| 2021-09 | 109.9 |
| 2021-10 | 112.8 |
| 2021-11 | 114.3 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
The business managers remain optimistic overall
In November 2021, the business managers remain optimistic overall for the next three months. The balance of opinion on expected activity has increased for the third month in a row and stands well above its average. The one on expected demand has edged down but remains also well above its average.
At the same time, the balance of opinion on the general outlook for the sector activity is stable well above its average; the one on economic uncertainty felt is also unchanged compared to October.
The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months has also improved this month. It has reached its highest level since April 1990.
More business managers than in the previous month have reported an increase in their sales prices over the last three months: the balance of opinion on the recent change in selling prices has gone up sharply again. The one on the expected change in selling prices has also improved sharply. Both stand well above their respective averages.
About employment, the balance of opinion on the change in workforce size over the last three months has improved very sharply and has returned well above its average level. Concerning the balance on expected workforce size, it has increased slightly again and has further exceeded its average.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Aug. 2021 | Sep. 2021 | Oct. 2021 | Nov. 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 109 | 110 | 113 | 114 |
| General outlook | -7 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 12 |
| Past activity | 1 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 17 |
| Expected activity | 1 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 13 |
| Expected demand | -1 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 13 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| Past employment | 2 | 3 | -3 | -1 | 11 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 | 9 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 12 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 15 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 8 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
- ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate remains favourable in all services sub-sectors
In November 2021, the business climate remains at a high level in all services sub-sectors. It has improved except in real estate activities and in professional, scientific and technical activities.
The business climate has improved sharply in administrative and support services. It has gained 3 points, to 113, and thus further exceeded its average. In particular, the balances concerning recent and expected activity and past change in workforce size have increased sharply.
In road freight transport, the business climate indicator has improved slightly (+1 point, to 113) and thus remains well above its average. The balance on expected employment has increased very sharply in this sub-sector.
In accommodation and food services and in information-communication, the business climate has also improved slightly (+1 point in both cases) and further exceeded its average: it has reached 115 in accommodation and food services and 110 in information-communication. This improvement is mainly due to the rise in the balances on expected demand, past activity and past employment in accommodation and food services, and the rise in the balances on expected activity and past employment in information-communication.
In real estate activities, the business climate has deteriorated but remains well above its average (-3 points, to 108). The balance on expected activity has decreased sharply in this sub-sector.
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has also fallen back but remains significantly above its average level (-2 points, to 115). The balance on expected demand has fallen back sharply in this sub-sector: it has returned to its last September level.
Revision
The business climate indicator in services of October 2021 has been revised downwards by one point. This revision is mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Aug. 2021 | Sep. 2021 | Oct. 2021 | Nov. 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road freight transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 107 | 112 | 112 | 113 |
| Past activity | -6 | 9 | -7 | 0 | 6 |
| Expected activity | -6 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 14 |
| Expected demand | -8 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 11 |
| Past employment | -6 | -8 | 0 | -6 | 1 |
| Expected employment | -7 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 23 |
| General outlook | -18 | -2 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 113 | 109 | 114 | 115 |
| Past activity | -8 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 37 |
| Expected activity | -8 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Expected demand | -10 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| Past employment | -5 | -8 | -10 | 5 | 12 |
| Expected employment | -6 | -2 | 10 | 11 | 4 |
| General outlook | -14 | 9 | -5 | 5 | 6 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 108 | 109 | 109 | 110 |
| Past activity | 7 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 20 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 14 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 17 |
| Past employment | 6 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 23 | 27 | 20 | 20 |
| General outlook | 0 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 15 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 113 | 110 | 111 | 108 |
| Past activity | 6 | 21 | 20 | 15 | 12 |
| Expected activity | 6 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 6 |
| Expected demand | 1 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Past employment | 3 | 12 | 17 | 5 | 17 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 4 |
| General outlook | -4 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| Professionnel, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 108 | 112 | 117 | 115 |
| Past activity | -1 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 12 |
| Expected activity | -2 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 13 |
| Expected demand | -5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
| Past employment | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| Expected employment | 0 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 6 |
| General outlook | -9 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 13 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 107 | 110 | 113 |
| Past activity | 5 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 23 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 17 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 17 |
| Past employment | 8 | 3 | -10 | -10 | 10 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 17 |
| General outlook | -4 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 16 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
For further information
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 28 October and 19 November 2021.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 16 December 2021 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)
Methodology note (in French) (pdf,275 Ko)
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 28 October and 19 November 2021.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 16 December 2021 at 8:45 am