In Q2 2021, the dynamism of imports in the advanced countries ensured that world trade could continue to rebound (+1.4% after +2.9% in Q1). World demand for French products accelerated more vigorously (+1.8% after +1.3%), linked to the growth in imports in the European countries, France’s main trading partners. French exports followed this dynamic trend only partially, however, (+1.0% after stagnation in Q1), with imports proving more robust: thus for the second consecutive quarter, foreign trade aff ected change in GDP (–0.2 points after –0.4).

In H2, French imports are expected to continue to be buoyant (+3.9% in Q3 then +1.2% in Q4), boosted by the increase in domestic demand. Exports are also likely to accelerate, although to a lesser degree (+2.0% then +0.8%): in Q3, they appear to have been driven by the rebound, albeit partial, in international tourism, before decelerating in Q4. Business managers in industry who responded to the September business tendency surveys reported that their foreign order books were less full than in previous months. All in all, foreign trade is likely to continue to aff ect GDP in the last two quarters of 2021 (contribution of –0.6 points to change in GDP in Q3 then –0.1 points in Q4).

By the end of 2021, exports are expected to reach 93% of their Q4 2019 level, while imports are likely to return to virtually the same level as pre-crisis. This diff erence is mainly due to exports of transport equipment (especially aeronautical equipment) and imports of manufactured products, driven by domestic demand.