The economy survives the fourth wave Economic outlook - September 2021

 

Conjoncture in France
Paru le :Paru le13/09/2021
Conjoncture in France- September 2021
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Household consumption

After deteriorating sharply in April as a result of the third lockdown, household consumption picked up in May and June with the gradual lifting of Covid restrictions. Thus in June this level was close to its pre-crisis level (–1% compared to Q4 2019, after –4% in May and –12% in April), i.e. an increase of +1.0% in Q2, after stagnation in Q1. In July, consumption would appear to have declined slightly, standing at –2% compared to pre-crisis. It would seem to have been adversely aff ected by a decline in the consumption of goods (especially vehicle purchases), despite the buoyancy in spending in those services where restrictions had previously applied (accommodationcatering, transport services and leisure activities). In August, consumption would seem to have increased a little, reaching –1½% compared to its pre-crisis level: consumption of goods would seem to have picked up, with the introduction of the health pass affecting household spending only moderately in the sectors concerned, especially catering. In September and into Q4, the expansion of the vaccine rollout should ensure that consumption is able to pick up in those sectors requiring the health pass: according to our scenario, household spending in September is expected to be 1% below its precrisis level, then it should increase gradually to return to this level by the end of the year. All in all, after falling by 7.2% in 2020, household consumption looks set to bounce back by 4.5% in 2021.

Conjoncture in France

Paru le :13/09/2021