GDP was stable in Q1, then increased in Q2 2021 (+1.1%), according to the detailed results in the quarterly accounts published at the end of August. Although activity fell back in April as a result of the third lockdown, dropping to –5.7% compared to its pre-crisis level (i.e. by convention in Q4 2019), it went on to rebound briskly as restrictions were lifted, reaching –2.8% in May compared to pre-crisis, then –1.2% in June.

This June level was very close to the pre-crisis level, and was the highest reached since March 2020. Thus the growth overhang at mid-year is 4.8% (assuming that activity in H2 maintains at least the Q2 average). This overhang could even be as much as 5.9% if we assume that activity will not fall below its June level during the second half of the year. In a context of excellent progress in the rollout of vaccinations and the introduction of the health pass, the fourth wave of the epidemic (with the spread of the Delta variant in July-August) was not accompanied by the same stringent national restrictions as during the April 2021 lockdown. Assuming that developments in the health situation require no further restrictive measures, our scenario forecasts a continuing recovery until the end of the year, although at a more moderate pace than in Q2. In Q3, activity is expected to be between –1% and –½% compared to the pre-crisis level, then back to its pre-crisis level overall by the end of the year. All in all, for the whole of 2021, GDP should increase by 6¼% compared to 2020 (after –8.0%).