Insee
Informations rapides · 26 January 2021 · n° 021
Informations rapidesIn January 2021, real estate developers’ opinion on demand for new dwellings has improvedQuaterly business survey in the real-estate development - January 2021

In January 2021, the real estate developers’ opinion on demand for new dwellings has improved compared to October 2020: the corresponding balance of opinion has recovered but remains below its long-term average.

Informations rapides
No 021
Paru le : Paru le 26/01/2021

In January 2021, the real estate developers’ opinion on demand for new dwellings has improved compared to October 2020: the corresponding balance of opinion has recovered but remains below its long-term average.

Prospects for housing have rebounded compared to October 2020

In January 2021, more real estate developers than in October 2020 have planned housing starts for the next three months. The corresponding balance of opinion has bounced back strongly and has returned above its long-term average. This rebound affects both housing for sale and housing intended for rent. The balance of opinion about housing intended for sale has returned above its average; the one about housing intended for rent, already above its average in October, has surpassed it more.

At the same time, many more real estate developers than in October 2020 have indicated an increase in their unsold dwelling stocks. The corresponding balance has bounced back and has almost reached its level of July, a little above its long-term average.

The real estate developers have indicated rising selling prices

Real estate developers are more numerous than in October 2020 to indicate a rise in the average price of new dwellings for sale. The corresponding balance of opinion has increased again and stands well above its long-term average. About funding, less developers than in October 2020 have considered that downpayment to acquire a new dwelling has increased during the last three months: the corresponding balance has declined slightly but remains above its long-term average.

Finally, many more developers than in the previous quarter think that the financing capacity to purchase new housing will increase over the next three months. The corresponding balance of opinion has strongly risen and has gone significantly above its long-term average.

Real-estate development economic outlook

Balances of opinion, in %, SA
Real-estate development economic outlook (Balances of opinion, in %, SA) - NA : not available
Mean* Apr. 20 July 20 Oct. 20 Jan. 21
New dwelling demand -10 NA -13 -18 -15
Expected housing starts -7 NA -6 -11 -1
- for sale -15 NA -15 -20 -11
- for rent 1 NA 15 7 17
Unsold dwelling stock tendency -26 NA -23 -35 -25
Housing average price for sale 5 NA 15 20 23
Downpayment -20 NA -11 -7 -10
Financing capacity -21 NA -24 -25 -10
  • * Mean since July 1991.
  • NA : not available
  • Source: French business survey on real-estate development - INSEE

New dwelling demand tendency

New dwelling demand tendency
New dwelling demand tendency
2007-Q1 9.2
2007-Q2 1.4
2007-Q3 3.1
2007-Q4 -1.8
2008-Q1 -7.0
2008-Q2 -13.7
2008-Q3 -13.4
2008-Q4 -33.1
2009-Q1 -26.7
2009-Q2 -13.8
2009-Q3 -10.6
2009-Q4 -8.6
2010-Q1 -3.9
2010-Q2 -8.5
2010-Q3 -6.5
2010-Q4 -0.3
2011-Q1 -10.2
2011-Q2 -15.1
2011-Q3 -20.8
2011-Q4 -22.7
2012-Q1 -24.6
2012-Q2 -33.6
2012-Q3 -42.1
2012-Q4 -47.7
2013-Q1 -47.7
2013-Q2 -47.7
2013-Q3 -42.8
2013-Q4 -42.1
2014-Q1 -44.4
2014-Q2 -45.7
2014-Q3 -53.3
2014-Q4 -51.8
2015-Q1 -46.0
2015-Q2 -36.7
2015-Q3 -28.1
2015-Q4 -26.0
2016-Q1 -26.1
2016-Q2 -11.9
2016-Q3 -9.7
2016-Q4 -5.1
2017-Q1 -1.8
2017-Q2 -3.6
2017-Q3 -2.5
2017-Q4 -4.3
2018-Q1 -7.0
2018-Q2 -11.1
2018-Q3 -15.5
2018-Q4 -20.1
2019-Q1 -25.2
2019-Q2 -19.8
2019-Q3 -12.0
2019-Q4 -8.6
2020-Q1 -4.5
2020-Q2 NaN
2020-Q3 -13.2
2020-Q4 -18.0
2021-Q1 -14.7
  • Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.

New dwelling demand tendency

  • Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
  • Source: INSEE.

For further information

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.

The responses to this survey have been collected between 28 December and 21 January 2021.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.

Next issue: 27 Avril 2021 at 12:00 am

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.

The responses to this survey have been collected between 28 December and 21 January 2021.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.

Next issue: 27 Avril 2021 at 12:00 am


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