22 October 2020
N° 2020-266

In October 2020, the business climate in the manufacturing industry has stalledMonthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - October 2020

According to the business managers surveyed in October 2020, the business climate in industry has not improve further and has even slighlty deteriorated. It has lost one point and now stands at 93. The business climate, that had been steadily recovering since May 2020 from its historical fall caused by the health crisis, thus remains well below its long-term level (100). The slight drop stems from shrunking personal production expectations and, at a lesser extent, declining balance on overall order-books. The drop is partly offset by the improvement in the balance on past production.

Informations rapides
No 266
Paru le : Paru le 22/10/2020
Prochaine parution le : 17/12/2020 at 08:45 - December 2020
Informations rapides  No 266 - October 2020

According to the business managers surveyed in October 2020, the business climate in industry has not improve further and has even slighlty deteriorated. It has lost one point and now stands at 93. The business climate, that had been steadily recovering since May 2020 from its historical fall caused by the health crisis, thus remains well below its long-term level (100). The slight drop stems from shrunking personal production expectations and, at a lesser extent, declining balance on overall order-books. The drop is partly offset by the improvement in the balance on past production.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
1998-01 112.6
1998-02 113.3
1998-03 117.1
1998-04 115.2
1998-05 114.9
1998-06 115.2
1998-07 113.9
1998-08 113.0
1998-09 112.1
1998-10 106.9
1998-11 104.1
1998-12 102.4
1999-01 101.8
1999-02 102.1
1999-03 97.1
1999-04 98.5
1999-05 100.9
1999-06 99.8
1999-07 106.0
1999-08 109.1
1999-09 112.0
1999-10 113.4
1999-11 116.6
1999-12 114.5
2000-01 115.7
2000-02 117.7
2000-03 119.9
2000-04 119.8
2000-05 121.3
2000-06 124.1
2000-07 121.3
2000-08 121.4
2000-09 121.1
2000-10 119.9
2000-11 118.1
2000-12 114.2
2001-01 113.0
2001-02 113.1
2001-03 111.7
2001-04 107.4
2001-05 105.9
2001-06 104.3
2001-07 101.7
2001-08 98.8
2001-09 95.7
2001-10 95.2
2001-11 91.2
2001-12 92.7
2002-01 93.7
2002-02 95.4
2002-03 97.2
2002-04 98.7
2002-05 102.3
2002-06 100.6
2002-07 97.6
2002-08 98.2
2002-09 99.1
2002-10 96.0
2002-11 96.6
2002-12 101.1
2003-01 97.9
2003-02 97.6
2003-03 93.1
2003-04 92.1
2003-05 91.9
2003-06 90.2
2003-07 92.9
2003-08 92.7
2003-09 93.0
2003-10 95.8
2003-11 100.1
2003-12 100.8
2004-01 100.4
2004-02 100.6
2004-03 103.7
2004-04 103.4
2004-05 104.8
2004-06 105.4
2004-07 105.2
2004-08 105.3
2004-09 105.3
2004-10 105.1
2004-11 103.2
2004-12 103.4
2005-01 103.3
2005-02 103.2
2005-03 99.8
2005-04 96.7
2005-05 97.2
2005-06 99.1
2005-07 100.3
2005-08 99.7
2005-09 99.1
2005-10 101.2
2005-11 101.1
2005-12 104.2
2006-01 103.2
2006-02 106.6
2006-03 106.5
2006-04 108.0
2006-05 108.9
2006-06 108.7
2006-07 109.0
2006-08 108.6
2006-09 108.1
2006-10 107.3
2006-11 109.7
2006-12 109.3
2007-01 108.3
2007-02 111.8
2007-03 111.3
2007-04 112.0
2007-05 110.1
2007-06 111.2
2007-07 111.6
2007-08 111.0
2007-09 110.6
2007-10 110.0
2007-11 112.3
2007-12 112.5
2008-01 110.5
2008-02 110.4
2008-03 110.0
2008-04 107.5
2008-05 104.2
2008-06 103.6
2008-07 98.9
2008-08 98.2
2008-09 91.8
2008-10 87.3
2008-11 80.1
2008-12 73.7
2009-01 72.9
2009-02 68.9
2009-03 67.0
2009-04 70.9
2009-05 72.7
2009-06 75.2
2009-07 76.7
2009-08 81.2
2009-09 84.2
2009-10 85.4
2009-11 87.8
2009-12 87.7
2010-01 90.4
2010-02 88.9
2010-03 91.3
2010-04 95.2
2010-05 96.7
2010-06 95.9
2010-07 97.4
2010-08 100.5
2010-09 103.0
2010-10 104.2
2010-11 101.9
2010-12 104.3
2011-01 108.8
2011-02 107.0
2011-03 110.2
2011-04 110.1
2011-05 107.3
2011-06 109.9
2011-07 104.9
2011-08 101.4
2011-09 99.4
2011-10 97.6
2011-11 97.7
2011-12 94.9
2012-01 95.1
2012-02 95.1
2012-03 96.7
2012-04 95.8
2012-05 95.0
2012-06 93.3
2012-07 91.4
2012-08 93.1
2012-09 92.9
2012-10 87.4
2012-11 91.9
2012-12 91.1
2013-01 90.1
2013-02 90.8
2013-03 90.8
2013-04 88.0
2013-05 92.3
2013-06 92.9
2013-07 94.9
2013-08 98.7
2013-09 96.1
2013-10 98.1
2013-11 98.3
2013-12 99.4
2014-01 99.8
2014-02 98.5
2014-03 101.0
2014-04 100.4
2014-05 98.5
2014-06 96.8
2014-07 96.5
2014-08 96.9
2014-09 97.0
2014-10 97.6
2014-11 99.0
2014-12 98.8
2015-01 98.9
2015-02 98.6
2015-03 99.2
2015-04 101.7
2015-05 102.0
2015-06 100.4
2015-07 101.7
2015-08 103.8
2015-09 104.8
2015-10 103.3
2015-11 102.4
2015-12 102.6
2016-01 102.8
2016-02 103.2
2016-03 102.7
2016-04 104.9
2016-05 104.5
2016-06 101.6
2016-07 101.8
2016-08 101.8
2016-09 103.5
2016-10 102.2
2016-11 102.2
2016-12 105.6
2017-01 105.9
2017-02 106.8
2017-03 105.7
2017-04 108.7
2017-05 108.9
2017-06 109.0
2017-07 108.2
2017-08 110.3
2017-09 110.9
2017-10 111.1
2017-11 111.5
2017-12 111.5
2018-01 113.5
2018-02 112.5
2018-03 110.7
2018-04 110.8
2018-05 110.0
2018-06 109.6
2018-07 108.6
2018-08 109.2
2018-09 107.2
2018-10 104.2
2018-11 105.1
2018-12 103.1
2019-01 103.2
2019-02 103.4
2019-03 103.7
2019-04 101.8
2019-05 104.1
2019-06 101.9
2019-07 101.6
2019-08 102.8
2019-09 101.9
2019-10 99.6
2019-11 101.8
2019-12 98.7
2020-01 102.2
2020-02 100.8
2020-03 98.0
2020-04 67.7
2020-05 70.8
2020-06 77.5
2020-07 82.4
2020-08 92.5
2020-09 94.5
2020-10 93.4

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Ave.* Jul. 20 Aug. 20 Sept. 20 Oct. 20
Manufacturing industry
Composite indicator 100 82 92 94 93
Past activity 4 -41 -4 7 15
Finished-goods inventory 12 14 7 6 13
Overall order books -18 -51 -37 -34 -36
Export order books -14 -62 -53 -43 -45
Past workforce size -10 -26 -23 -17 -14
Expected workforce size -11 -15 -15 -13 -12
Personal production expectations 5 24 22 10 4
General production expectations -8 -4 -4 -3 -12
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Managers’ opinion on personal production prospects and overall order books has been deteriorating

In October 2020, the balance of opinion on personal production expectations has worsened again. It had reached a high point in July, then had stagnated in August and decreased significantly in September. In October it has fallen below its long-term average. The balance of opinion on general production prospects in industry has also fallen below its average after being nearly stable since July.

Managers’ assesment on overall and foreign order-books has worsened a little. These two balances of opinion remain markedly below their pre-crisis level, particularly the one on foreign order-books.

Inventory levels have been been said to be above normal more frequently than in September. The balance of opinon has returned just above its long-term average.

Only the balance of opinion related to the production over the last three months has positively contributed to the variation in the business climate. The corresponding balance has continued to rise without weakening since June 2020, after its historically large fall in conjunction with the national lockdown. In October, it has reached its highest point since August 2018.

In October, contrasting developments in business climates according to sub-sectors

In the manufacture of food products, the business climate has strongly fallen back and has returned below its long-term level. This decline is mainly due to the fall in the balance on overall order books. In the transport equipment sector, which had been much more impacted by national lockdow, the business climate has deteriorated in October after stagnating in September. This decrease which concerns mainly the manufacture of motor vehicules, should however been taken cautiously because of the non-response rate in that sub-sector this month.

By contrast, the business climate has again improved in the manufacture of machinery and equipments as well as in the « other manufacturing » sector. In the latter, business climate has gotten better in October in all sub-sectors except for the chemical industry.

Revisions

The business climate in manufacturng in September 2020 has been revised downwards by two points due to the integration of late business responses.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2011-01 109.4 105.3 105.3 105.2
2011-02 107.6 103.3 99.8 108.3
2011-03 106.7 107.6 106.2 109.7
2011-04 108.9 105.7 105.8 109.9
2011-05 109.6 104.3 105.2 107.6
2011-06 108.6 105.3 109.4 108.8
2011-07 111.1 103.4 103.9 104.9
2011-08 103.5 101.3 101.9 100.4
2011-09 101.9 100.3 98.9 98.2
2011-10 104.3 98.9 100.3 96.5
2011-11 102.2 96.6 102.3 94.3
2011-12 98.1 96.9 100.2 94.7
2012-01 99.7 96.8 95.1 94.3
2012-02 100.3 96.7 93.8 96.1
2012-03 102.1 97.3 103.0 97.3
2012-04 99.1 96.7 94.2 98.0
2012-05 93.5 95.4 95.1 96.1
2012-06 94.8 91.7 95.8 93.9
2012-07 94.7 91.4 95.3 92.6
2012-08 93.7 91.0 95.4 93.7
2012-09 96.6 91.7 97.2 93.8
2012-10 91.1 86.6 95.8 89.6
2012-11 98.3 87.9 93.0 92.5
2012-12 98.8 88.3 92.5 92.1
2013-01 97.7 88.4 92.7 91.5
2013-02 98.0 89.4 94.5 90.5
2013-03 94.0 89.6 94.0 91.5
2013-04 91.8 90.4 93.1 89.6
2013-05 91.6 90.3 95.0 92.1
2013-06 92.6 89.8 95.0 93.5
2013-07 92.2 90.4 98.9 95.1
2013-08 95.4 92.5 101.5 97.3
2013-09 94.9 90.9 97.8 97.3
2013-10 95.5 91.2 103.7 97.9
2013-11 98.2 93.4 102.1 98.8
2013-12 98.6 92.6 100.1 99.3
2014-01 99.6 92.1 102.6 98.7
2014-02 99.2 94.6 98.2 98.4
2014-03 99.8 93.5 100.8 102.5
2014-04 95.8 93.2 102.9 100.2
2014-05 98.0 94.5 98.4 99.5
2014-06 96.0 92.6 98.2 98.7
2014-07 97.1 90.1 99.4 99.2
2014-08 95.3 94.1 98.0 100.7
2014-09 94.3 92.9 100.9 97.3
2014-10 95.7 93.3 97.4 98.6
2014-11 96.3 92.9 100.2 99.9
2014-12 99.1 92.9 99.9 100.2
2015-01 103.2 94.2 101.8 99.7
2015-02 99.5 95.9 101.2 100.3
2015-03 100.8 94.9 105.3 100.2
2015-04 104.5 97.4 107.1 100.7
2015-05 102.3 97.9 105.0 101.6
2015-06 105.3 98.0 105.2 101.0
2015-07 108.8 99.1 104.9 102.9
2015-08 103.5 98.2 107.9 101.7
2015-09 105.5 96.9 109.0 102.6
2015-10 104.3 99.0 107.8 99.9
2015-11 102.3 100.4 107.8 99.6
2015-12 99.8 98.9 107.8 101.7
2016-01 101.8 101.4 108.1 99.5
2016-02 100.2 101.4 109.0 100.0
2016-03 101.7 100.0 106.0 101.1
2016-04 105.6 101.0 109.2 101.3
2016-05 103.5 98.3 106.1 103.9
2016-06 103.2 98.0 105.9 101.6
2016-07 104.6 98.5 105.2 101.8
2016-08 99.4 99.0 104.0 101.6
2016-09 108.6 99.2 105.2 100.6
2016-10 106.6 98.2 105.8 101.2
2016-11 107.7 100.5 102.5 101.4
2016-12 108.3 104.2 104.6 104.7
2017-01 104.1 103.2 106.7 105.3
2017-02 105.6 104.6 106.4 106.3
2017-03 104.7 105.6 105.6 104.9
2017-04 103.8 107.9 106.1 107.9
2017-05 106.2 109.5 105.6 107.3
2017-06 111.9 109.1 105.2 108.6
2017-07 108.9 109.7 108.3 107.0
2017-08 109.1 107.4 108.6 108.5
2017-09 106.9 108.0 109.4 108.6
2017-10 111.2 110.1 108.6 110.2
2017-11 112.3 110.3 109.2 111.0
2017-12 110.8 111.7 110.2 110.3
2018-01 111.3 113.3 112.1 110.7
2018-02 110.3 111.4 112.2 110.1
2018-03 109.6 110.8 111.5 109.4
2018-04 109.7 110.9 112.7 107.9
2018-05 108.2 111.7 108.2 107.9
2018-06 110.0 108.5 109.9 105.9
2018-07 108.1 108.9 106.1 106.8
2018-08 108.3 108.6 106.7 106.1
2018-09 106.8 107.9 105.1 105.0
2018-10 102.5 107.4 103.8 102.7
2018-11 108.8 102.5 104.1 102.7
2018-12 107.4 102.7 102.3 102.1
2019-01 107.6 104.0 102.4 101.9
2019-02 108.7 105.3 100.7 101.4
2019-03 107.6 101.4 102.9 101.6
2019-04 107.2 102.1 101.3 101.2
2019-05 111.9 104.5 102.6 102.6
2019-06 108.1 99.4 100.7 101.1
2019-07 104.4 103.6 99.3 100.9
2019-08 108.8 100.4 101.6 102.1
2019-09 108.0 100.1 101.2 101.7
2019-10 105.6 97.0 100.7 98.9
2019-11 102.8 98.3 105.6 100.7
2019-12 107.5 97.8 99.1 97.7
2020-01 107.3 101.5 105.5 99.2
2020-02 108.1 99.9 100.1 100.5
2020-03 109.0 98.8 96.1 97.6
2020-04 92.7 77.3 73.7 73.9
2020-05 90.3 75.8 75.7 74.7
2020-06 90.6 79.2 77.4 79.5
2020-07 89.9 85.8 80.5 82.3
2020-08 97.0 92.2 91.9 88.7
2020-09 102.3 91.9 92.3 93.1
2020-10 94.7 96.3 87.5 95.1

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Weights** (%) Aug. 20 Sept. 20 Oct. 20
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 21 97 102 95
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 92 92 96
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 91 87 92
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 94 94 97
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 91 93 98
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 18 92 92 87
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9 109 113 105
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 79 77 76
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 89 93 95
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 88 92 96
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 94 99 104
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 76 83 79
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 97 98 103
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 92 93 98
[CM] Other manufacturing industries 9 98 97 100
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

For further information

A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.

Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

Answers to this survey have been collected from September 28 to October 19 2020.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Next issue: 24 November 2020 at 8:45 am.

A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.

Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

Answers to this survey have been collected from September 28 to October 19 2020.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Next issue: 24 November 2020 at 8:45 am.


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