Informations rapides
24 September 2020
2020- n° 238
In September 2020, the opinion of business managers in the building industry about their recent activity has kept improving Monthly survey of building - September 2020

In September 2020, the opinion of business managers in the building industry about their recent activity has continued to improve while the balance of opinion on expected activity has kept falling back.

Informations rapides
No 238
Paru le :Paru le24/09/2020
Prochaine parution le : 25/04/2024 at 08:45 - April 2024

In September 2020, the opinion of business managers in the building industry about their recent activity has continued to improve while the balance of opinion on expected activity has kept falling back.

The balance of opinion on past activity has kept recovering

In September 2020, the business managers in the building industry have been, for the third consecutive month, much more numerous than in the previous month to report an increase in their activity prospects for the last three months: the corresponding balance has risen significantly again and has returned slightly above its long-term average.

However, the business managers in the building industry have been again less optimistic than in the previous month about their expected activity over the next three months: the corresponding balance of opinion has fallen again, while remaining above its long-term average.

Building industry economic outlook

Balances of opinion, in %, SA
Building industry economic outlook (Balances of opinion, in %, SA)
Mean* June 20 July 20 Aug. 20 Sep. 20
Past activity -4 -79 -58 -22 -2
Expected activity -5 4 16 12 4
General business outlook -16 -5
Past employment -5 -24 -18 -13 -8
Expected employment -3 -4 0 0 2
Opinion on order books -22 -31 -23 -18 -22
Order books (in month) 5,7 7,9 8,0 8,1 8,0
Production capacity utilisation rate (in %) 88.7 87.9 89.4 89.8 90.0
Obstacles to production increase (in %) 33 37 35 38 40
- Because of workforce shortage (in %) 14 13 18 19 19
Recruiting problems (in %) 59 67
Expected prices -13 -10 -8 -12 -13
Cash-flow position -10 -25
Repayment period 30 30
  • *Mean since April 1975 for the composite indicator and since September 1993 for the balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE, French business survey in the building industry

Activity tendency in building construction

Activity tendency in building construction
Expected activity Past activity
1998-01 -4.4 -3.8
1998-02 -5.1 0.7
1998-03 0.0 5.6
1998-04 -3.6 2.7
1998-05 0.9 7.8
1998-06 3.8 13.6
1998-07 3.9 16.8
1998-08 5.9 18.3
1998-09 7.4 19.7
1998-10 4.5 13.5
1998-11 -0.4 16.0
1998-12 -9.7 3.1
1999-01 -0.4 18.0
1999-02 3.5 12.1
1999-03 5.3 15.2
1999-04 9.0 19.6
1999-05 22.6 18.4
1999-06 14.6 17.9
1999-07 16.9 23.3
1999-08 17.4 24.2
1999-09 17.6 24.8
1999-10 14.3 29.1
1999-11 17.8 28.0
1999-12 33.1 32.4
2000-01 32.4 34.8
2000-02 23.1 33.6
2000-03 26.9 34.9
2000-04 29.9 44.1
2000-05 26.1 35.1
2000-06 31.5 34.8
2000-07 31.9 40.5
2000-08 32.2 40.4
2000-09 32.4 40.4
2000-10 34.3 40.1
2000-11 29.3 40.1
2000-12 24.9 33.2
2001-01 7.8 34.8
2001-02 9.0 34.7
2001-03 12.1 30.4
2001-04 7.7 17.0
2001-05 2.9 19.3
2001-06 0.5 14.1
2001-07 -2.4 12.0
2001-08 -3.7 7.0
2001-09 -5.3 2.5
2001-10 -5.4 1.8
2001-11 -4.5 -3.1
2001-12 -7.9 -1.7
2002-01 -4.2 -6.4
2002-02 -4.7 -3.1
2002-03 -3.7 -0.7
2002-04 -11.1 -7.5
2002-05 -2.8 -0.2
2002-06 -1.3 -0.4
2002-07 -6.4 -11.3
2002-08 -11.3 -11.0
2002-09 -16.4 -9.6
2002-10 -19.1 -11.5
2002-11 -19.7 -15.5
2002-12 -18.2 -19.5
2003-01 -23.3 -13.3
2003-02 -21.1 -15.2
2003-03 -23.7 -18.4
2003-04 -21.8 -15.5
2003-05 -18.0 -16.9
2003-06 -17.4 -15.7
2003-07 -14.3 -16.1
2003-08 -9.7 -10.4
2003-09 -5.5 -3.6
2003-10 -5.2 -13.3
2003-11 -0.1 -9.6
2003-12 1.8 -5.3
2004-01 15.6 -1.3
2004-02 5.5 1.3
2004-03 8.7 3.1
2004-04 5.9 6.1
2004-05 2.6 6.3
2004-06 2.0 5.9
2004-07 10.9 6.9
2004-08 11.9 6.3
2004-09 12.3 6.9
2004-10 12.0 8.7
2004-11 11.7 13.4
2004-12 11.7 12.2
2005-01 11.6 11.1
2005-02 9.0 11.6
2005-03 13.2 8.3
2005-04 13.6 9.7
2005-05 12.6 9.2
2005-06 16.4 12.7
2005-07 14.8 15.4
2005-08 13.9 14.6
2005-09 12.9 15.3
2005-10 18.4 18.0
2005-11 22.9 19.3
2005-12 19.7 20.2
2006-01 20.2 20.5
2006-02 20.1 13.5
2006-03 16.5 17.5
2006-04 16.2 20.1
2006-05 17.5 21.0
2006-06 14.2 21.4
2006-07 16.7 21.2
2006-08 17.0 20.6
2006-09 18.3 22.6
2006-10 21.1 22.9
2006-11 23.3 20.6
2006-12 20.3 22.1
2007-01 21.4 20.2
2007-02 18.9 19.8
2007-03 18.2 22.5
2007-04 21.0 24.1
2007-05 21.1 22.4
2007-06 21.0 25.0
2007-07 18.9 25.0
2007-08 17.7 20.7
2007-09 18.8 20.6
2007-10 15.9 19.6
2007-11 13.5 21.5
2007-12 16.7 19.2
2008-01 7.7 18.7
2008-02 15.3 18.0
2008-03 17.9 15.6
2008-04 10.0 16.3
2008-05 10.8 9.6
2008-06 -4.3 5.0
2008-07 -6.2 -0.3
2008-08 -5.4 0.3
2008-09 -10.0 -0.9
2008-10 -33.4 -10.6
2008-11 -36.3 -11.4
2008-12 -30.7 -21.0
2009-01 -34.8 -19.6
2009-02 -46.6 -25.8
2009-03 -36.5 -24.3
2009-04 -35.8 -30.0
2009-05 -33.3 -29.2
2009-06 -33.7 -33.1
2009-07 -32.5 -33.3
2009-08 -27.3 -31.2
2009-09 -25.0 -28.3
2009-10 -21.4 -25.0
2009-11 -20.4 -26.2
2009-12 -20.0 -26.5
2010-01 -19.7 -26.6
2010-02 -18.2 -23.7
2010-03 -17.8 -26.1
2010-04 -17.4 -25.4
2010-05 -16.9 -20.7
2010-06 -15.2 -17.6
2010-07 -12.4 -14.0
2010-08 -10.8 -12.6
2010-09 -13.0 -13.1
2010-10 -4.4 -13.1
2010-11 -0.6 -12.9
2010-12 -0.8 -7.9
2011-01 -0.8 -8.4
2011-02 3.3 -3.7
2011-03 3.0 1.7
2011-04 5.3 8.3
2011-05 2.4 6.0
2011-06 4.4 6.2
2011-07 4.3 8.3
2011-08 0.6 1.6
2011-09 -4.4 -0.6
2011-10 -4.9 -2.2
2011-11 -9.8 -4.4
2011-12 -11.5 -4.5
2012-01 -10.5 -1.6
2012-02 -12.3 -3.6
2012-03 -10.5 -5.5
2012-04 -11.9 -8.7
2012-05 -14.7 -13.5
2012-06 -14.0 -13.6
2012-07 -17.2 -15.0
2012-08 -19.3 -15.1
2012-09 -20.3 -15.0
2012-10 -26.0 -18.3
2012-11 -24.5 -21.3
2012-12 -21.9 -20.6
2013-01 -24.3 -21.6
2013-02 -22.0 -23.1
2013-03 -24.3 -23.8
2013-04 -24.6 -28.2
2013-05 -21.3 -26.8
2013-06 -24.0 -26.6
2013-07 -22.6 -22.2
2013-08 -19.7 -16.6
2013-09 -12.3 -13.2
2013-10 -15.6 -13.3
2013-11 -16.5 -13.0
2013-12 -18.6 -20.2
2014-01 -15.6 -20.7
2014-02 -20.6 -17.2
2014-03 -18.6 -17.2
2014-04 -22.4 -17.5
2014-05 -19.5 -19.0
2014-06 -17.6 -18.3
2014-07 -28.1 -18.2
2014-08 -27.3 -25.3
2014-09 -29.9 -29.8
2014-10 -29.9 -31.7
2014-11 -24.9 -25.2
2014-12 -28.0 -23.1
2015-01 -32.8 -23.1
2015-02 -23.7 -30.1
2015-03 -24.4 -27.5
2015-04 -23.9 -20.8
2015-05 -26.4 -21.6
2015-06 -20.4 -20.0
2015-07 -16.4 -22.1
2015-08 -8.6 -18.6
2015-09 -13.2 -16.9
2015-10 -15.2 -14.3
2015-11 -20.9 -15.2
2015-12 -8.1 -11.6
2016-01 -8.3 -14.7
2016-02 -16.1 -15.0
2016-03 -9.3 -14.0
2016-04 -5.0 -13.4
2016-05 -2.0 -8.1
2016-06 -2.5 -8.9
2016-07 -0.3 -9.6
2016-08 -3.2 -7.5
2016-09 0.6 -5.9
2016-10 3.7 0.0
2016-11 1.2 0.8
2016-12 -1.1 -5.6
2017-01 -2.8 5.4
2017-02 -0.4 -1.3
2017-03 2.8 -1.7
2017-04 5.9 -6.6
2017-05 2.0 4.4
2017-06 3.6 10.7
2017-07 11.1 5.4
2017-08 13.4 1.3
2017-09 9.1 9.5
2017-10 8.5 5.8
2017-11 14.0 9.7
2017-12 14.3 13.2
2018-01 13.3 14.2
2018-02 11.2 13.9
2018-03 11.8 13.2
2018-04 13.2 10.6
2018-05 12.9 5.8
2018-06 12.7 4.5
2018-07 6.4 8.8
2018-08 4.2 8.3
2018-09 9.7 3.8
2018-10 10.5 4.6
2018-11 10.3 3.8
2018-12 11.8 6.5
2019-01 15.2 6.4
2019-02 15.6 10.1
2019-03 14.5 11.8
2019-04 11.9 11.4
2019-05 13.1 5.6
2019-06 15.2 9.0
2019-07 9.3 14.1
2019-08 10.3 9.2
2019-09 12.8 14.1
2019-10 17.2 14.0
2019-11 8.5 11.5
2019-12 10.2 8.4
2020-01 10.3 7.9
2020-02 15.9 11.7
2020-03 7.5 18.4
2020-04 -85.5 -21.6
2020-05 -47.0 -79.3
2020-06 4.0 -79.5
2020-07 16.0 -58.1
2020-08 12.1 -21.7
2020-09 3.8 -2.4

Activity tendency in building construction

  • Source: INSEE

The business managers remain rather upbeat on the upcoming trend in employment

In September 2020, the business managers remain relatively confident on the employment prospects for the next three months. The corresponding balance of opinion has slightly risen and then stays above its long-term average.

Moreover, more business managers have reported that they had increased their staff size in the last three months: the corresponding balance of opinion has continued to recover, albeit remaining below its long-term average.

Workforce size tendency in building construction

Workforce size tendency in building construction
Expected workforce size Past workforce size
1998-01 -14.3 -15.6
1998-02 -16.3 -14.7
1998-03 -10.2 -13.3
1998-04 -10.4 -11.4
1998-05 -8.4 -6.7
1998-06 -9.3 -5.4
1998-07 -4.2 -2.4
1998-08 -3.9 -0.9
1998-09 -3.9 1.0
1998-10 -7.3 -2.0
1998-11 -8.2 -0.6
1998-12 -7.5 -0.2
1999-01 -7.9 -1.8
1999-02 -2.3 1.1
1999-03 -3.7 3.3
1999-04 -2.2 2.1
1999-05 6.8 0.0
1999-06 8.8 -0.6
1999-07 12.5 7.9
1999-08 12.9 12.0
1999-09 13.0 16.4
1999-10 15.6 16.7
1999-11 18.3 14.6
1999-12 19.6 20.6
2000-01 22.7 19.2
2000-02 19.5 19.2
2000-03 22.9 16.3
2000-04 21.9 28.9
2000-05 14.2 23.7
2000-06 23.8 24.0
2000-07 23.2 28.1
2000-08 26.4 27.0
2000-09 29.5 26.3
2000-10 35.3 28.7
2000-11 27.7 29.0
2000-12 25.1 26.2
2001-01 20.6 21.3
2001-02 17.4 24.1
2001-03 12.8 19.3
2001-04 12.4 12.2
2001-05 13.0 14.5
2001-06 11.2 13.1
2001-07 11.9 7.6
2001-08 9.1 6.5
2001-09 6.2 5.6
2001-10 5.5 2.1
2001-11 6.5 4.2
2001-12 7.4 1.5
2002-01 8.6 3.3
2002-02 9.4 1.8
2002-03 9.4 2.8
2002-04 6.3 -0.9
2002-05 5.3 -0.6
2002-06 5.6 -1.3
2002-07 0.6 -1.2
2002-08 -1.3 -2.5
2002-09 -3.2 -3.6
2002-10 10.0 -3.0
2002-11 -5.7 -2.7
2002-12 -4.9 -2.6
2003-01 -1.3 0.3
2003-02 -2.2 1.7
2003-03 -3.7 -2.5
2003-04 -1.5 4.5
2003-05 -2.6 -0.6
2003-06 -1.0 -0.8
2003-07 0.9 0.0
2003-08 2.7 1.2
2003-09 4.5 2.3
2003-10 5.0 -0.7
2003-11 8.4 6.2
2003-12 12.4 6.6
2004-01 12.5 6.8
2004-02 2.3 2.3
2004-03 3.3 2.1
2004-04 8.2 7.8
2004-05 6.9 3.4
2004-06 5.0 0.0
2004-07 5.2 1.6
2004-08 6.7 0.4
2004-09 8.4 -1.0
2004-10 7.4 -0.4
2004-11 10.9 -0.4
2004-12 11.7 1.4
2005-01 9.2 0.7
2005-02 9.5 0.1
2005-03 12.5 5.5
2005-04 15.2 6.9
2005-05 14.2 6.7
2005-06 14.0 8.1
2005-07 16.9 3.9
2005-08 15.2 6.0
2005-09 13.7 7.9
2005-10 15.9 9.7
2005-11 19.6 11.5
2005-12 17.0 12.7
2006-01 18.4 18.9
2006-02 20.2 19.9
2006-03 19.3 13.3
2006-04 18.2 16.0
2006-05 20.5 18.2
2006-06 21.8 17.9
2006-07 20.3 20.4
2006-08 22.2 21.1
2006-09 24.4 21.7
2006-10 26.1 21.6
2006-11 23.8 19.8
2006-12 26.3 18.5
2007-01 27.0 19.2
2007-02 25.3 21.4
2007-03 24.6 20.5
2007-04 22.9 20.6
2007-05 25.5 20.2
2007-06 28.6 23.4
2007-07 25.4 21.6
2007-08 24.6 21.8
2007-09 24.2 22.1
2007-10 23.1 16.6
2007-11 26.7 21.7
2007-12 21.5 21.0
2008-01 19.9 22.6
2008-02 15.9 21.4
2008-03 22.3 23.0
2008-04 23.0 21.1
2008-05 15.5 13.0
2008-06 13.8 13.6
2008-07 11.9 13.4
2008-08 9.5 9.3
2008-09 4.8 5.9
2008-10 -1.4 5.8
2008-11 -8.7 -0.9
2008-12 -12.5 -2.3
2009-01 -16.9 -8.7
2009-02 -17.9 -8.2
2009-03 -22.4 -12.8
2009-04 -20.9 -18.4
2009-05 -20.2 -17.9
2009-06 -20.1 -17.9
2009-07 -20.3 -20.7
2009-08 -19.0 -19.2
2009-09 -17.0 -19.1
2009-10 -15.9 -19.3
2009-11 -15.3 -18.9
2009-12 -14.5 -18.8
2010-01 -12.8 -18.3
2010-02 -15.8 -17.2
2010-03 -13.1 -16.8
2010-04 -14.0 -16.5
2010-05 -14.6 -13.9
2010-06 -15.4 -15.8
2010-07 -13.4 -10.7
2010-08 -11.3 -12.0
2010-09 -7.7 -10.9
2010-10 -7.7 -12.1
2010-11 -3.8 -7.6
2010-12 -1.7 -4.4
2011-01 -1.3 -4.2
2011-02 3.1 -5.1
2011-03 3.6 -3.1
2011-04 4.9 0.3
2011-05 7.3 -0.3
2011-06 6.8 3.2
2011-07 7.7 3.4
2011-08 3.4 3.8
2011-09 -0.8 2.8
2011-10 -6.2 -2.4
2011-11 -7.4 -8.8
2011-12 -5.3 -6.4
2012-01 -3.7 -4.2
2012-02 -3.9 -5.6
2012-03 -9.0 -6.8
2012-04 -9.2 -8.4
2012-05 -12.6 -9.1
2012-06 -11.3 -7.7
2012-07 -15.3 -11.8
2012-08 -14.7 -11.1
2012-09 -16.7 -15.7
2012-10 -14.7 -10.3
2012-11 -14.9 -10.9
2012-12 -16.2 -13.3
2013-01 -15.6 -14.4
2013-02 -15.8 -17.2
2013-03 -18.0 -17.8
2013-04 -13.5 -13.7
2013-05 -19.0 -16.3
2013-06 -18.2 -18.6
2013-07 -17.9 -18.1
2013-08 -16.0 -19.7
2013-09 -14.8 -18.3
2013-10 -10.5 -13.7
2013-11 -16.6 -18.3
2013-12 -17.7 -16.6
2014-01 -19.5 -18.9
2014-02 -21.1 -19.9
2014-03 -18.4 -18.6
2014-04 -19.3 -22.2
2014-05 -19.2 -15.6
2014-06 -23.3 -26.6
2014-07 -22.1 -25.4
2014-08 -26.9 -26.5
2014-09 -28.2 -28.6
2014-10 -26.1 -28.8
2014-11 -22.5 -25.0
2014-12 -24.4 -25.8
2015-01 -29.5 -29.2
2015-02 -24.3 -25.1
2015-03 -25.2 -26.5
2015-04 -27.3 -34.0
2015-05 -27.2 -30.1
2015-06 -19.9 -26.5
2015-07 -24.7 -28.6
2015-08 -23.2 -24.9
2015-09 -22.1 -24.8
2015-10 -23.5 -26.7
2015-11 -21.3 -28.8
2015-12 -23.4 -27.6
2016-01 -20.3 -24.3
2016-02 -20.4 -26.0
2016-03 -20.2 -26.9
2016-04 -17.7 -23.1
2016-05 -15.8 -24.0
2016-06 -16.6 -23.9
2016-07 -17.5 -21.0
2016-08 -13.5 -20.7
2016-09 -10.5 -18.5
2016-10 -8.8 -17.4
2016-11 -11.1 -15.5
2016-12 -8.6 -15.7
2017-01 -7.1 -13.5
2017-02 -7.4 -13.2
2017-03 -6.2 -10.9
2017-04 -4.9 -15.2
2017-05 -0.9 -7.7
2017-06 2.1 -6.6
2017-07 3.7 -2.6
2017-08 1.6 -7.4
2017-09 1.9 -7.0
2017-10 3.5 -5.1
2017-11 1.9 -6.6
2017-12 11.7 6.4
2018-01 9.1 -0.3
2018-02 6.6 -4.4
2018-03 13.4 1.2
2018-04 11.8 3.9
2018-05 10.0 7.4
2018-06 9.8 3.8
2018-07 13.7 4.1
2018-08 14.1 3.8
2018-09 14.7 4.3
2018-10 8.8 5.0
2018-11 14.2 8.3
2018-12 13.8 4.5
2019-01 6.6 3.2
2019-02 18.0 6.3
2019-03 12.8 6.1
2019-04 13.7 4.0
2019-05 13.6 6.8
2019-06 9.0 4.1
2019-07 5.6 3.9
2019-08 9.7 6.2
2019-09 13.0 4.3
2019-10 10.6 5.9
2019-11 16.5 4.0
2019-12 13.2 4.4
2020-01 15.2 8.3
2020-02 19.8 8.7
2020-03 12.2 7.2
2020-04 -17.3 0.4
2020-05 -17.3 -16.7
2020-06 -4.4 -23.8
2020-07 0.1 -17.9
2020-08 0.3 -13.1
2020-09 2.2 -7.7

Workforce size tendency in building construction

  • Source : INSEE

The opinion on the order books has slightly deteriorated

In September 2020, fewer business managers than in August have considered that the level of their order books is higher than normal: the corresponding balance of opinion has fallen back and has returned to its long-term average. The business managers consider that, given their present staff size, their order books provide 8.0 months of work, only sightly less than in the previous month and significantly more than the long-term average (5.7 months).

Pressure on productive capacities are stronger

In September 2020, the production capacity utilisation rate has increased again slightly. At 90.0%, it stands above its long-term average (88.7%). At the same time, the production bottlenecks have increased: they concern 40% of the business managers, a share slightly higher than in August and much superior to its average (33%). The share of business managers reporting to be hampered from increasing their production due to workforce shortage is stable, above its long-term average.

The balance of opinion about future price development is at its average level

In September 2020, the balance of opinion of business managers about the future change in their prices is virtually stable and stands at its long-term average level.

For further information

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.

Since the definitives data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

All balances of opinion from the survey are published in this Informations Rapides and in the complementary chronological series available online. However, during the health crisis, it appeared that the composite business climate indicator, usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion, tended to smooth the fluctuations in the economic activity measured in building construction. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 22 October 2020 at 8:45 am

Pour en savoir plus

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.

Since the definitives data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

All balances of opinion from the survey are published in this Informations Rapides and in the complementary chronological series available online. However, during the health crisis, it appeared that the composite business climate indicator, usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion, tended to smooth the fluctuations in the economic activity measured in building construction. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 22 October 2020 at 8:45 am

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr
: