27 May 2020
2020- n° 128In May 2020, the business climate has has been recovering but remains very deteriorated
in services Monthly survey of services - May 2020
According to the business managers surveyed in May 2020, the business climate has recovered in services, after reaching in April its lowest level since the indicator was created (1989). The business climate composite indicator has gained 9 points. However, at 50, it stands really deteriorated. The balances of opinion on past developments have continued to deteriorate while those relating to planned developments have recovered.
Due to the context of the fight against the propagation of COVID-19, statistics published in this Informations Rapides issue could be less accurate than usual. Companies’ responses were collected between 28 April and 19 May 2020, to a large extent during general lockdown, and solely online. Consequently, the response rate is lower this month than usual.
In addition, for the data for April and May, the method to correct non-response has been modified compared to the usual method which reproduces past responses from non-responding companies. We have considered that the non-responding units in April or May would have responded as the average of the responding units of the elementary stratum to which they belong. This may cause substantial downward revisions from the April data previously sent last month.
According to the business managers surveyed in May 2020, the business climate has recovered in services, after reaching in April its lowest level since the indicator was created (1989). The business climate composite indicator has gained 9 points. However, at 50, it stands really deteriorated. The balances of opinion on past developments have continued to deteriorate while those relating to planned developments have recovered.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-01 | 104.4 |
| 1998-02 | 105.6 |
| 1998-03 | 106.8 |
| 1998-04 | 108.0 |
| 1998-05 | 107.7 |
| 1998-06 | 107.3 |
| 1998-07 | 106.9 |
| 1998-08 | 106.0 |
| 1998-09 | 105.2 |
| 1998-10 | 104.3 |
| 1998-11 | 102.5 |
| 1998-12 | 100.6 |
| 1999-01 | 98.7 |
| 1999-02 | 99.6 |
| 1999-03 | 100.5 |
| 1999-04 | 101.4 |
| 1999-05 | 102.9 |
| 1999-06 | 104.4 |
| 1999-07 | 106.0 |
| 1999-08 | 108.7 |
| 1999-09 | 111.5 |
| 1999-10 | 114.2 |
| 1999-11 | 112.7 |
| 1999-12 | 111.2 |
| 2000-01 | 109.6 |
| 2000-02 | 109.0 |
| 2000-03 | 108.5 |
| 2000-04 | 107.9 |
| 2000-05 | 110.6 |
| 2000-06 | 113.4 |
| 2000-07 | 112.0 |
| 2000-08 | 113.9 |
| 2000-09 | 115.2 |
| 2000-10 | 114.6 |
| 2000-11 | 113.7 |
| 2000-12 | 114.2 |
| 2001-01 | 113.4 |
| 2001-02 | 112.2 |
| 2001-03 | 112.4 |
| 2001-04 | 108.4 |
| 2001-05 | 105.8 |
| 2001-06 | 105.7 |
| 2001-07 | 103.6 |
| 2001-08 | 102.9 |
| 2001-09 | 101.6 |
| 2001-10 | 96.9 |
| 2001-11 | 96.3 |
| 2001-12 | 96.6 |
| 2002-01 | 97.5 |
| 2002-02 | 98.6 |
| 2002-03 | 102.3 |
| 2002-04 | 104.4 |
| 2002-05 | 105.2 |
| 2002-06 | 102.7 |
| 2002-07 | 101.1 |
| 2002-08 | 99.8 |
| 2002-09 | 98.0 |
| 2002-10 | 98.6 |
| 2002-11 | 100.0 |
| 2002-12 | 100.9 |
| 2003-01 | 97.7 |
| 2003-02 | 96.3 |
| 2003-03 | 91.7 |
| 2003-04 | 89.1 |
| 2003-05 | 93.0 |
| 2003-06 | 94.4 |
| 2003-07 | 97.4 |
| 2003-08 | 98.7 |
| 2003-09 | 99.6 |
| 2003-10 | 100.4 |
| 2003-11 | 101.8 |
| 2003-12 | 104.0 |
| 2004-01 | 106.2 |
| 2004-02 | 106.2 |
| 2004-03 | 105.9 |
| 2004-04 | 105.7 |
| 2004-05 | 106.3 |
| 2004-06 | 105.3 |
| 2004-07 | 106.4 |
| 2004-08 | 106.0 |
| 2004-09 | 105.3 |
| 2004-10 | 106.5 |
| 2004-11 | 106.0 |
| 2004-12 | 108.6 |
| 2005-01 | 106.5 |
| 2005-02 | 106.2 |
| 2005-03 | 108.1 |
| 2005-04 | 107.9 |
| 2005-05 | 105.9 |
| 2005-06 | 108.2 |
| 2005-07 | 107.6 |
| 2005-08 | 107.3 |
| 2005-09 | 106.9 |
| 2005-10 | 108.4 |
| 2005-11 | 106.4 |
| 2005-12 | 106.6 |
| 2006-01 | 108.6 |
| 2006-02 | 106.3 |
| 2006-03 | 107.5 |
| 2006-04 | 107.8 |
| 2006-05 | 110.4 |
| 2006-06 | 109.1 |
| 2006-07 | 110.2 |
| 2006-08 | 110.3 |
| 2006-09 | 110.5 |
| 2006-10 | 110.8 |
| 2006-11 | 112.9 |
| 2006-12 | 111.3 |
| 2007-01 | 110.8 |
| 2007-02 | 112.0 |
| 2007-03 | 113.1 |
| 2007-04 | 112.9 |
| 2007-05 | 112.8 |
| 2007-06 | 112.4 |
| 2007-07 | 112.9 |
| 2007-08 | 112.1 |
| 2007-09 | 111.4 |
| 2007-10 | 110.1 |
| 2007-11 | 110.2 |
| 2007-12 | 109.2 |
| 2008-01 | 110.4 |
| 2008-02 | 108.7 |
| 2008-03 | 108.8 |
| 2008-04 | 107.3 |
| 2008-05 | 104.8 |
| 2008-06 | 101.8 |
| 2008-07 | 97.6 |
| 2008-08 | 96.1 |
| 2008-09 | 94.1 |
| 2008-10 | 85.7 |
| 2008-11 | 81.8 |
| 2008-12 | 78.7 |
| 2009-01 | 76.1 |
| 2009-02 | 75.0 |
| 2009-03 | 69.9 |
| 2009-04 | 69.9 |
| 2009-05 | 73.9 |
| 2009-06 | 78.3 |
| 2009-07 | 81.9 |
| 2009-08 | 84.6 |
| 2009-09 | 87.7 |
| 2009-10 | 90.7 |
| 2009-11 | 92.1 |
| 2009-12 | 92.7 |
| 2010-01 | 94.1 |
| 2010-02 | 94.3 |
| 2010-03 | 94.5 |
| 2010-04 | 97.6 |
| 2010-05 | 99.3 |
| 2010-06 | 98.5 |
| 2010-07 | 99.4 |
| 2010-08 | 100.9 |
| 2010-09 | 101.8 |
| 2010-10 | 103.1 |
| 2010-11 | 104.9 |
| 2010-12 | 106.8 |
| 2011-01 | 107.1 |
| 2011-02 | 109.2 |
| 2011-03 | 110.4 |
| 2011-04 | 109.1 |
| 2011-05 | 107.7 |
| 2011-06 | 107.3 |
| 2011-07 | 105.4 |
| 2011-08 | 101.0 |
| 2011-09 | 98.9 |
| 2011-10 | 97.7 |
| 2011-11 | 95.7 |
| 2011-12 | 95.3 |
| 2012-01 | 93.5 |
| 2012-02 | 92.9 |
| 2012-03 | 94.2 |
| 2012-04 | 96.0 |
| 2012-05 | 92.5 |
| 2012-06 | 90.6 |
| 2012-07 | 90.0 |
| 2012-08 | 88.1 |
| 2012-09 | 87.7 |
| 2012-10 | 86.6 |
| 2012-11 | 86.1 |
| 2012-12 | 87.6 |
| 2013-01 | 88.6 |
| 2013-02 | 87.3 |
| 2013-03 | 84.6 |
| 2013-04 | 83.7 |
| 2013-05 | 85.1 |
| 2013-06 | 86.5 |
| 2013-07 | 86.9 |
| 2013-08 | 88.8 |
| 2013-09 | 92.3 |
| 2013-10 | 91.9 |
| 2013-11 | 92.6 |
| 2013-12 | 91.2 |
| 2014-01 | 92.5 |
| 2014-02 | 92.4 |
| 2014-03 | 93.2 |
| 2014-04 | 93.6 |
| 2014-05 | 92.6 |
| 2014-06 | 92.5 |
| 2014-07 | 92.8 |
| 2014-08 | 91.8 |
| 2014-09 | 91.3 |
| 2014-10 | 91.6 |
| 2014-11 | 91.5 |
| 2014-12 | 91.5 |
| 2015-01 | 91.3 |
| 2015-02 | 91.6 |
| 2015-03 | 92.4 |
| 2015-04 | 94.0 |
| 2015-05 | 95.5 |
| 2015-06 | 96.9 |
| 2015-07 | 97.6 |
| 2015-08 | 98.6 |
| 2015-09 | 97.7 |
| 2015-10 | 99.7 |
| 2015-11 | 99.4 |
| 2015-12 | 97.2 |
| 2016-01 | 100.1 |
| 2016-02 | 99.9 |
| 2016-03 | 99.6 |
| 2016-04 | 98.5 |
| 2016-05 | 100.8 |
| 2016-06 | 99.2 |
| 2016-07 | 100.4 |
| 2016-08 | 100.1 |
| 2016-09 | 100.8 |
| 2016-10 | 100.8 |
| 2016-11 | 100.8 |
| 2016-12 | 103.6 |
| 2017-01 | 101.7 |
| 2017-02 | 102.7 |
| 2017-03 | 103.4 |
| 2017-04 | 103.2 |
| 2017-05 | 102.8 |
| 2017-06 | 103.5 |
| 2017-07 | 103.8 |
| 2017-08 | 105.8 |
| 2017-09 | 106.6 |
| 2017-10 | 106.7 |
| 2017-11 | 107.4 |
| 2017-12 | 108.7 |
| 2018-01 | 107.7 |
| 2018-02 | 106.4 |
| 2018-03 | 106.6 |
| 2018-04 | 105.7 |
| 2018-05 | 104.2 |
| 2018-06 | 104.8 |
| 2018-07 | 104.3 |
| 2018-08 | 103.6 |
| 2018-09 | 104.4 |
| 2018-10 | 103.1 |
| 2018-11 | 103.6 |
| 2018-12 | 102.0 |
| 2019-01 | 103.4 |
| 2019-02 | 103.3 |
| 2019-03 | 104.5 |
| 2019-04 | 105.3 |
| 2019-05 | 105.8 |
| 2019-06 | 106.2 |
| 2019-07 | 105.0 |
| 2019-08 | 104.6 |
| 2019-09 | 105.6 |
| 2019-10 | 105.6 |
| 2019-11 | 106.0 |
| 2019-12 | 106.4 |
| 2020-01 | 106.0 |
| 2020-02 | 105.8 |
| 2020-03 | 92.8 |
| 2020-04 | 41.4 |
| 2020-05 | 50.5 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
The balances on expectations have improved, those on the past have deteriorated
The balances of opinion on the general outlook of the sector’s activity, on own expectations of activity and on expected demand have sharply recovered after a fall to particularly low levels last month. However, the balance on past activity (on the three previous months) have strongly fallen again. These balances stand all far below their long-term average. That on past activity has even reached its lowest level since the start of the survey (1988), its previous lowest level being hit on April 2009.
Concerning employment, the balance on expected employment has sharply bounced back, albeit remaining well below its average, whereas that on past employment has declined again. The latter has reached its lowest level since the beginning of the survey, the previous lowest level dating from last month.
The balance on past investments has continued to deteriorate and reached its lowest level since the beginning of the indicator, in 2005. In contrast, the balance on expected investments has bounced back, however standing significantly below its average level.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Feb. 2020 | Mar. 2020 | Apr. 2020 | May 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 93 | 41 | 50 |
| General outlook | -7 | 0 | -15 | -76 | -62 |
| Past activity | 2 | 11 | 5 | -22 | -50 |
| Expected activity | 2 | 5 | -10 | -71 | -54 |
| Expected demand | -1 | 3 | -12 | -69 | -50 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | 0 | 0 | -8 | -16 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | 1 | -4 | -23 | -23 |
| Past employment | 3 | 6 | -5 | -35 | -44 |
| except temporary work agencies | 1 | 2 | -3 | -29 | -38 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 8 | -6 | -65 | -45 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | 4 | -3 | -59 | -45 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 2 | 6 | 7 | -13 | -32 |
| Expected investments | 1 | 4 | -1 | -47 | -39 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate indicator has recovered in road freight transport, in information-communication, in professional, scientific and technical activities and in administrative and support services.
Nevertheless, the business climate has continued to deteriorate in real estate activities, with a decline less pronounced than that of an exceptional magnitude in the previous month, and in accommodation and food services, where almost all responding firms have reported a decline in the their past and expected activity, their expected demand and the general outlook of their sector (balances of opinion between -98 and -100). In these two sectors, the climate has fallen to its lowest level since the start of the indicator (1989).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Feb. 2020 | Mar. 2020 | Apr. 2020 | May 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 93 | 65 | 77 |
| Past activity | -6 | 0 | -6 | -35 | -59 |
| Expected activity | -7 | 2 | -23 | -81 | -45 |
| Expected demand | -9 | 2 | -30 | -73 | -39 |
| Past employment | -5 | 7 | -3 | -27 | -46 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -9 | -11 | -51 | -43 |
| General outlook | -19 | -6 | -30 | -84 | -62 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 91 | 28 | 26 |
| Past activity | -7 | 2 | 5 | -66 | -98 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -1 | -20 | -100 | -100 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -1 | -21 | -100 | -98 |
| Past employment | -4 | -9 | -10 | -51 | -59 |
| Expected employment | -6 | -8 | -8 | -82 | -78 |
| General outlook | -13 | -2 | -32 | -100 | -100 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 103 | 99 | 63 | 68 |
| Past activity | 8 | 20 | 21 | 5 | -19 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 9 | 2 | -51 | -33 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 2 | 3 | -58 | -29 |
| Past employment | 6 | 7 | -10 | -18 | -14 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 10 | 7 | -33 | -37 |
| General outlook | 0 | 4 | -3 | -63 | -46 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 101 | 92 | 55 | 44 |
| Past activity | 7 | 8 | 10 | -6 | -26 |
| Expected activity | 7 | 5 | -4 | -40 | -41 |
| Expected demand | 1 | 5 | -10 | -31 | -32 |
| Past employment | 3 | 4 | -6 | -3 | -24 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 8 | -3 | -23 | -20 |
| General outlook | -4 | -7 | -12 | -57 | -52 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 108 | 96 | 39 | 47 |
| Past activity | -1 | 9 | -1 | -26 | -51 |
| Expected activity | -2 | 2 | -10 | -78 | -64 |
| Expected demand | -5 | 4 | -12 | -75 | -59 |
| Past employment | 1 | 4 | 3 | -18 | -34 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 10 | 5 | -57 | -41 |
| General outlook | -8 | 1 | -14 | -78 | -66 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 85 | 39 | 51 |
| Past activity | 6 | 11 | -5 | -36 | -69 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 8 | -20 | -78 | -53 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 5 | -21 | -75 | -54 |
| Past employment | 9 | 13 | -6 | -48 | -57 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 17 | -13 | -85 | -40 |
| General outlook | -4 | 8 | -15 | -83 | -63 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
Most of the balances of opinion in April have been revised downwards from their provisional value published in April. The business climate in April has been revised downwards by 14 points. These revisions are mainly explained by the change in methodology to correct non-response.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 24 June 2020 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 24 June 2020 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
