On the 4^th of June 2021, 278,891 deaths were recorded in France from the 1^st of January 2021 to the 24^th of May 2021 which is 8% more than in 2019 (+21,265). However, this number is provisional and will be revised upwards in the coming weeks.

Thus, from the 1^st of January 2021 to the 10^th of May 2021, the number of deaths which was 255,519 two weeks earlier is revised upwards to 257,155 on the 4^th of June (+0.6%). The increase compared to the same period in 2019 was firstly estimated at +8.6% and was thus revised to +9.3%.

To study the evolution of the number of deaths in 2021, INSEE chose the year 2019 as a reference to establish comparisons as it was before the Covid-19 pandemic. Indeed, this choice implies comparing the winter period (from January to February) of 2021 to the winter period of 2019 when France was struck by a more virulent seasonal flu pandemic than the one in January-February 2020. Santé Publique France estimated that from January to February 2019 the excess mortality reached 13,100 and that 8,120 deaths were due to the flu. On the contrary, according to the estimations of Santé Publique France, the 2019-2020’s flu caused 50% less deaths than the 2018-2019’s one (3,680 on the 15^th of March 2020). From the 1^st of January 2021 to the 10^th of May 2021, the number of deaths is almost the same as the one observed in 2020 (+1%) but is superior to the one observed in 2019. Compared to 2019, the number of deaths in 2021 is superior both in the January-February period (+7,619, +7%), and from the 1^st of March to the 24^th of May (+13,646, +10%). Compared to 2020, the number of deaths in 2021 is largely superior in the January-February period (+15,113 and even +16,926 when taking into account the fact that the year 2020 was bissextile, thus +16%) as the pandemic was not spread out yet in France in this period in 2020. However, from the 1^st of March to the 24^th of May, the number of deaths decreases compared to the year before during the same period (-13,559, -8%) due to the first wave of the pandemic.

The average recorded number of daily deaths slightly increased in January 2021, then decreased until mid-march and stabilized at the beginning of May 2021. It continued to decrease during May. During January, the recorded number of daily deaths was 2,150 compared to 2,035 during the second half of December. In February, the average number of daily deaths decreased and reached 2,040 with a decrease between the first fortnight and the second one. It kept on decreasing during the first fortnight of March (1,880 deaths) and then stabilized until the beginning of May. From the 1^st to the 24^th of May, the average number of daily deaths decreased and reached 1,730 according to provisional estimations established on the 4^th of June.

In all the metropolitan regions of France the recorded number of deaths between the 1^st of January 2021 and the 24^th of May 2021 was superior compared to the number of deaths registered during the same period in 2019.

In Metropolitan France, the deaths surplus is larger in Provence Alpes Côte d’Azur (+15%), in Hauts de France (+13%) and in Ile de France (+12%). It is smaller in Corse, Bretagne, Nouvelle-Aquitaine and Occitanie (between +2% and +5%).

According to provisional estimations established on the 4^th of June 2021, between the second fortnight of April and the first one of May, the average number of daily deaths decreases in all regions. The most important decreases were recorded in Corse (-18%), in Provence Alpes Côte d’Azur (-14%), and in Ile de France (-16%). Between the first and the second fortnight of April 2021, the average number of daily deaths was still increasing in almost all regions (except in Bourgogne-Franche Compté, Grand Est and Hauts de France) and particularly in Corse (+11%), in Pays de la Loire and Bretagne (+7%).

Looking at departments in Metropolitan France, 9 departments out of 10 recorded a superior number of daily deaths between the 1^st of January 2021 and the 24^th of May 2021 compared to the same period in 2019. For three of them the increase reached or was above 19%: in Seine et Marne (+21%), in Var (+20%) and in the Vosges (+19%).

The most important decreases were recorded in the Lot (-9%), and in the Charente, in Aveyron, in Territoire de Belfort, in Gers and in Creuse (-2%).

For the least populated departments, these shifts must be interpreted with caution as the number of deaths can fluctuate more within the years.

The situation is heterogeneous in overseas territories. From the 1^st of January 2021 to the 24^th of May 2021 the number of deaths largely increased in Mayotte compared to 2019 at the same period (+59%). An increase was also observed in the Reunion (+10%). It decreased in Guadeloupe and Guyane (-1%) and in Martinique (-4%). These shifts must be interpreted with caution as well.

The number of deaths in France was superior to 8% from the 1^st of January to the 24^th of May compared to the same period in 2019. However, the increase concerns only people aged above 65. Indeed, the recorded number of deaths between the 1^st of January and the 24^th of May 2021 is inferior compared the one recorded in 2019 for young people (-12.5% for people aged less than 25), and -6% for the ones aged between 25 to 49. It is almost stable for people aged between 50 to 64 (+1%).

However, compared with 2019, there are more deaths for people aged between 65 and 74 (+13%), and the ones aged between 75 and 84 (+13%). The increase of mortality is now less pronounced for those aged 85 and more (+8%).

During the last month: between the 25^th of April and the 24^th of May, the increase of mortality for people aged above 85 compared to 2019 is six times less than for people aged between 65 and 74 (+3% for people aged above 85 and + 18% for the one aged between 65 and 74). The increase in the number of deaths of people aged between 75 and 84 is in between and reaches +8%. These shifts are different to the ones observed during the Covid-19 first and second wave in 2020 mainly due to the effect of vaccination and the harvesting effect (pandemics mostly affect the weaker part of the population and can anticipate their deaths and thus it decreases mortality).

For all ages, the deaths surplus was more important for male (+10%) than female (+6%) from the 1^st of January to the 24^th of May 2021 compared to the same period in 2019. From the age of 75 years, the surpluses for each age group are higher for men than for women. For people aged between 65 and 74 the increase is equivalent for both sexes. On the contrary, for people below 50 the decrease between 2019 and 2021 during the same period was higher for female rather than for male which was the contrary in 2020.

Similarly, to previous Covid-19 waves, the increase in the number of deaths was higher in retirement homes than in hospitals (+15% against +10%) from the 1^st of January to the 24^th of May 2021 compared to the same period in 2019. Also, we observed an increase of 17% in deaths at home. However, during the last month, from the 25^th of April to the 24^th of May the deaths surplus between 2019 and 2021 in retirement homes largely decreased and almost reached the one observed in hospitals (respectively +9% and +11%).

Note that the information regarding the location of deaths reported by municipalities is declarative. Its quality depends on the degree of knowledge of the declarant and his capacity and the one of the civil servants to choose the right form concerning the death (see the methodological note).