23 April 2020
2020- n° 100In April 2020, the business climate in the manufacturing industry has fallen dramatically Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - April 2020
According to the business managers surveyed in April 2020, the business climate in industry has heavily fallen. The composite indicator has lost 16 points, a drop not seen since the beginning of the indicator in 1975, in relation with the health crisis. At 82, it has dropped well below its long term average (100). In particular, the balances of opinion related to production prospects have reached historically low levels.
Given the context of the fight against the spread of COVID-19, the statistics published in this issue of Informations Rapides may be less accurate than usual.
Companies’ responses were collected between 25 March and 17 April 2020, during general lockdown, solely online and without any reminder. Consequently, the response rate is lower this month than usual. Given the usual non-response completion design, relying on past answers for non-responding firms, it is possible that some indicators are overestimated in this publication.
According to the business managers surveyed in April 2020, the business climate in industry has heavily fallen. The composite indicator has lost 16 points, a drop not seen since the beginning of the indicator in 1975, in relation with the health crisis. At 82, it has dropped well below its long term average (100). In particular, the balances of opinion related to production prospects have reached historically low levels.
tableauBusiness climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator | |
---|---|
1998-01 | 112.7 |
1998-02 | 113.3 |
1998-03 | 117.2 |
1998-04 | 115.3 |
1998-05 | 115.0 |
1998-06 | 115.3 |
1998-07 | 114.0 |
1998-08 | 113.0 |
1998-09 | 112.1 |
1998-10 | 106.9 |
1998-11 | 104.0 |
1998-12 | 102.2 |
1999-01 | 101.6 |
1999-02 | 102.0 |
1999-03 | 96.8 |
1999-04 | 98.3 |
1999-05 | 100.7 |
1999-06 | 99.5 |
1999-07 | 105.9 |
1999-08 | 109.1 |
1999-09 | 112.0 |
1999-10 | 113.4 |
1999-11 | 116.6 |
1999-12 | 114.5 |
2000-01 | 115.8 |
2000-02 | 117.8 |
2000-03 | 120.0 |
2000-04 | 120.0 |
2000-05 | 121.4 |
2000-06 | 124.4 |
2000-07 | 121.5 |
2000-08 | 121.6 |
2000-09 | 121.3 |
2000-10 | 120.1 |
2000-11 | 118.2 |
2000-12 | 114.3 |
2001-01 | 113.0 |
2001-02 | 113.1 |
2001-03 | 111.7 |
2001-04 | 107.4 |
2001-05 | 105.7 |
2001-06 | 104.1 |
2001-07 | 101.6 |
2001-08 | 98.6 |
2001-09 | 95.4 |
2001-10 | 94.9 |
2001-11 | 90.9 |
2001-12 | 92.3 |
2002-01 | 93.3 |
2002-02 | 95.0 |
2002-03 | 96.9 |
2002-04 | 98.4 |
2002-05 | 102.1 |
2002-06 | 100.4 |
2002-07 | 97.3 |
2002-08 | 98.0 |
2002-09 | 98.9 |
2002-10 | 95.7 |
2002-11 | 96.4 |
2002-12 | 100.9 |
2003-01 | 97.7 |
2003-02 | 97.3 |
2003-03 | 92.8 |
2003-04 | 91.7 |
2003-05 | 91.5 |
2003-06 | 89.8 |
2003-07 | 92.5 |
2003-08 | 92.3 |
2003-09 | 92.6 |
2003-10 | 95.5 |
2003-11 | 99.9 |
2003-12 | 100.5 |
2004-01 | 100.2 |
2004-02 | 100.4 |
2004-03 | 103.6 |
2004-04 | 103.3 |
2004-05 | 104.7 |
2004-06 | 105.3 |
2004-07 | 105.1 |
2004-08 | 105.2 |
2004-09 | 105.2 |
2004-10 | 105.0 |
2004-11 | 103.1 |
2004-12 | 103.3 |
2005-01 | 103.3 |
2005-02 | 103.1 |
2005-03 | 99.6 |
2005-04 | 96.5 |
2005-05 | 97.0 |
2005-06 | 99.0 |
2005-07 | 100.1 |
2005-08 | 99.6 |
2005-09 | 98.9 |
2005-10 | 101.1 |
2005-11 | 101.0 |
2005-12 | 104.1 |
2006-01 | 103.0 |
2006-02 | 106.6 |
2006-03 | 106.4 |
2006-04 | 107.9 |
2006-05 | 108.9 |
2006-06 | 108.7 |
2006-07 | 108.9 |
2006-08 | 108.5 |
2006-09 | 108.1 |
2006-10 | 107.2 |
2006-11 | 109.7 |
2006-12 | 109.3 |
2007-01 | 108.3 |
2007-02 | 111.8 |
2007-03 | 111.4 |
2007-04 | 112.1 |
2007-05 | 110.1 |
2007-06 | 111.2 |
2007-07 | 111.6 |
2007-08 | 111.0 |
2007-09 | 110.6 |
2007-10 | 110.0 |
2007-11 | 112.3 |
2007-12 | 112.6 |
2008-01 | 110.6 |
2008-02 | 110.4 |
2008-03 | 110.0 |
2008-04 | 107.5 |
2008-05 | 104.1 |
2008-06 | 103.5 |
2008-07 | 98.7 |
2008-08 | 98.0 |
2008-09 | 91.5 |
2008-10 | 86.9 |
2008-11 | 79.5 |
2008-12 | 73.0 |
2009-01 | 72.1 |
2009-02 | 68.0 |
2009-03 | 66.1 |
2009-04 | 70.1 |
2009-05 | 71.9 |
2009-06 | 74.6 |
2009-07 | 76.0 |
2009-08 | 80.6 |
2009-09 | 83.7 |
2009-10 | 84.9 |
2009-11 | 87.4 |
2009-12 | 87.3 |
2010-01 | 90.0 |
2010-02 | 88.5 |
2010-03 | 90.9 |
2010-04 | 95.0 |
2010-05 | 96.5 |
2010-06 | 95.7 |
2010-07 | 97.2 |
2010-08 | 100.4 |
2010-09 | 102.9 |
2010-10 | 104.1 |
2010-11 | 101.7 |
2010-12 | 104.2 |
2011-01 | 108.8 |
2011-02 | 106.9 |
2011-03 | 110.2 |
2011-04 | 110.1 |
2011-05 | 107.2 |
2011-06 | 110.0 |
2011-07 | 104.8 |
2011-08 | 101.2 |
2011-09 | 99.2 |
2011-10 | 97.3 |
2011-11 | 97.5 |
2011-12 | 94.6 |
2012-01 | 94.9 |
2012-02 | 94.8 |
2012-03 | 96.4 |
2012-04 | 95.5 |
2012-05 | 94.7 |
2012-06 | 93.0 |
2012-07 | 91.0 |
2012-08 | 92.8 |
2012-09 | 92.6 |
2012-10 | 86.9 |
2012-11 | 91.6 |
2012-12 | 90.7 |
2013-01 | 89.6 |
2013-02 | 90.4 |
2013-03 | 90.4 |
2013-04 | 87.5 |
2013-05 | 92.0 |
2013-06 | 92.6 |
2013-07 | 94.6 |
2013-08 | 98.5 |
2013-09 | 95.8 |
2013-10 | 97.8 |
2013-11 | 98.1 |
2013-12 | 99.2 |
2014-01 | 99.5 |
2014-02 | 98.3 |
2014-03 | 100.8 |
2014-04 | 100.2 |
2014-05 | 98.3 |
2014-06 | 96.5 |
2014-07 | 96.2 |
2014-08 | 96.6 |
2014-09 | 96.8 |
2014-10 | 97.4 |
2014-11 | 98.8 |
2014-12 | 98.6 |
2015-01 | 98.7 |
2015-02 | 98.4 |
2015-03 | 98.9 |
2015-04 | 101.5 |
2015-05 | 101.8 |
2015-06 | 100.2 |
2015-07 | 101.5 |
2015-08 | 103.7 |
2015-09 | 104.7 |
2015-10 | 103.1 |
2015-11 | 102.3 |
2015-12 | 102.4 |
2016-01 | 102.6 |
2016-02 | 103.0 |
2016-03 | 102.5 |
2016-04 | 104.8 |
2016-05 | 104.4 |
2016-06 | 101.4 |
2016-07 | 101.6 |
2016-08 | 101.7 |
2016-09 | 103.4 |
2016-10 | 102.1 |
2016-11 | 102.0 |
2016-12 | 105.5 |
2017-01 | 105.9 |
2017-02 | 106.8 |
2017-03 | 105.6 |
2017-04 | 108.7 |
2017-05 | 108.9 |
2017-06 | 108.9 |
2017-07 | 108.1 |
2017-08 | 110.3 |
2017-09 | 110.9 |
2017-10 | 111.0 |
2017-11 | 111.5 |
2017-12 | 111.5 |
2018-01 | 113.5 |
2018-02 | 112.5 |
2018-03 | 110.7 |
2018-04 | 110.7 |
2018-05 | 110.0 |
2018-06 | 109.6 |
2018-07 | 108.6 |
2018-08 | 109.1 |
2018-09 | 107.1 |
2018-10 | 104.1 |
2018-11 | 105.0 |
2018-12 | 102.9 |
2019-01 | 103.1 |
2019-02 | 103.3 |
2019-03 | 103.6 |
2019-04 | 101.6 |
2019-05 | 103.9 |
2019-06 | 101.8 |
2019-07 | 101.4 |
2019-08 | 102.6 |
2019-09 | 101.7 |
2019-10 | 99.4 |
2019-11 | 101.6 |
2019-12 | 98.5 |
2020-01 | 101.9 |
2020-02 | 100.6 |
2020-03 | 97.7 |
2020-04 | 81.9 |
graphiqueBusiness climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

- Source: INSEE.
tableauIndustrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity
Ave.* | Jan. 19 | Feb. 20 | Mar. 20 | Apr. 20 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing industry | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 101 | 98 | 82 |
Past activity | 5 | -3 | -5 | 7 | -14 |
Finished-goods inventory | 12 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Overall order books | -18 | -10 | -11 | -16 | -33 |
Export order books | -14 | -8 | -17 | -19 | -36 |
Past workforce size | -9 | -3 | -2 | -3 | -8 |
Expected workforce size | -11 | -2 | -2 | -5 | -19 |
Personal production expectations | 5 | 8 | 7 | -7 | -35 |
General production expectations | -8 | -5 | 0 | -33 | -78 |
- * Long-term average since 1976.
- Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry
Tumbling production prospects
In April 2020, the industrialists’ balance of opinion on personal production prospects has collapsed below its former lowest level since the serie has existed, that was reached in 2009. The balance of opinion on the general production prospects for the sector has plunged again (-78% in April) and has also moved below its historically low values of 2009.
The balances of opinion on past activity and order books, total and foreign, have significantly declined, back to the low values of 2013. The balance regarding stocks has sligtly risen.
Considering employment, the balance of opinion on recent variation has dipped and the one on expected variation has slumped.
Sharp deterioration in all sub-sectors
The business climate indicators have deteriorated in all sub-sectors. The results are especially fragile in sub-sectors where the drops in the response rates are the sharpest, especially in the manufacture of transport equipment.
tableauBusiness climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) | (C3) | (C4) | (C5) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2011-01 | 109.3 | 105.1 | 105.1 | 105.1 |
2011-02 | 107.5 | 103.2 | 99.4 | 108.3 |
2011-03 | 106.6 | 107.5 | 106.0 | 109.7 |
2011-04 | 108.8 | 105.5 | 105.7 | 109.9 |
2011-05 | 109.4 | 104.1 | 105.0 | 107.5 |
2011-06 | 108.5 | 105.2 | 109.3 | 108.8 |
2011-07 | 111.0 | 103.2 | 103.7 | 104.8 |
2011-08 | 103.4 | 101.1 | 101.6 | 100.2 |
2011-09 | 101.8 | 100.0 | 98.6 | 97.9 |
2011-10 | 104.2 | 98.6 | 100.0 | 96.2 |
2011-11 | 102.1 | 96.3 | 102.0 | 94.0 |
2011-12 | 98.0 | 96.6 | 99.9 | 94.3 |
2012-01 | 99.7 | 96.5 | 94.7 | 93.9 |
2012-02 | 100.3 | 96.4 | 93.4 | 95.7 |
2012-03 | 102.0 | 97.0 | 102.7 | 97.0 |
2012-04 | 99.0 | 96.5 | 93.7 | 97.7 |
2012-05 | 93.5 | 95.1 | 94.6 | 95.7 |
2012-06 | 94.7 | 91.3 | 95.4 | 93.5 |
2012-07 | 94.7 | 91.1 | 94.8 | 92.1 |
2012-08 | 93.6 | 90.6 | 94.9 | 93.3 |
2012-09 | 96.5 | 91.3 | 96.8 | 93.5 |
2012-10 | 91.0 | 86.1 | 95.4 | 89.2 |
2012-11 | 98.2 | 87.5 | 92.5 | 92.1 |
2012-12 | 98.7 | 87.9 | 92.0 | 91.7 |
2013-01 | 97.6 | 88.0 | 92.1 | 91.0 |
2013-02 | 98.0 | 89.0 | 94.0 | 90.0 |
2013-03 | 94.0 | 89.2 | 93.5 | 91.0 |
2013-04 | 91.8 | 90.0 | 92.6 | 89.1 |
2013-05 | 91.6 | 90.0 | 94.6 | 91.6 |
2013-06 | 92.5 | 89.5 | 94.5 | 93.1 |
2013-07 | 92.1 | 90.0 | 98.6 | 94.8 |
2013-08 | 95.3 | 92.1 | 101.2 | 97.0 |
2013-09 | 94.9 | 90.5 | 97.4 | 97.0 |
2013-10 | 95.4 | 90.8 | 103.5 | 97.6 |
2013-11 | 98.1 | 93.1 | 101.8 | 98.5 |
2013-12 | 98.6 | 92.2 | 99.8 | 99.0 |
2014-01 | 99.5 | 91.7 | 102.3 | 98.5 |
2014-02 | 99.1 | 94.3 | 97.8 | 98.2 |
2014-03 | 99.7 | 93.2 | 100.5 | 102.2 |
2014-04 | 95.7 | 92.9 | 102.7 | 100.0 |
2014-05 | 97.9 | 94.2 | 98.1 | 99.3 |
2014-06 | 95.9 | 92.2 | 97.9 | 98.4 |
2014-07 | 97.0 | 89.7 | 99.1 | 98.8 |
2014-08 | 95.2 | 93.8 | 97.6 | 100.4 |
2014-09 | 94.3 | 92.6 | 100.6 | 97.0 |
2014-10 | 95.6 | 92.9 | 97.1 | 98.3 |
2014-11 | 96.2 | 92.6 | 99.9 | 99.6 |
2014-12 | 99.0 | 92.6 | 99.6 | 100.0 |
2015-01 | 103.1 | 93.9 | 101.5 | 99.5 |
2015-02 | 99.3 | 95.6 | 100.9 | 100.0 |
2015-03 | 100.7 | 94.5 | 105.1 | 99.9 |
2015-04 | 104.4 | 97.1 | 106.9 | 100.4 |
2015-05 | 102.2 | 97.6 | 104.8 | 101.3 |
2015-06 | 105.1 | 97.7 | 105.0 | 100.8 |
2015-07 | 108.7 | 98.8 | 104.7 | 102.7 |
2015-08 | 103.4 | 98.0 | 107.8 | 101.4 |
2015-09 | 105.4 | 96.6 | 108.9 | 102.4 |
2015-10 | 104.2 | 98.7 | 107.7 | 99.7 |
2015-11 | 102.1 | 100.1 | 107.7 | 99.3 |
2015-12 | 99.7 | 98.6 | 107.7 | 101.5 |
2016-01 | 101.7 | 101.2 | 108.0 | 99.1 |
2016-02 | 100.1 | 101.1 | 108.9 | 99.7 |
2016-03 | 101.6 | 99.7 | 105.8 | 100.9 |
2016-04 | 105.5 | 100.7 | 109.1 | 101.0 |
2016-05 | 103.4 | 98.0 | 105.9 | 103.7 |
2016-06 | 103.1 | 97.8 | 105.8 | 101.4 |
2016-07 | 104.5 | 98.2 | 105.1 | 101.6 |
2016-08 | 99.3 | 98.7 | 103.8 | 101.4 |
2016-09 | 108.4 | 99.0 | 105.0 | 100.3 |
2016-10 | 106.5 | 97.9 | 105.6 | 101.0 |
2016-11 | 107.6 | 100.2 | 102.2 | 101.1 |
2016-12 | 108.2 | 104.1 | 104.4 | 104.5 |
2017-01 | 104.0 | 103.0 | 106.6 | 105.1 |
2017-02 | 105.5 | 104.4 | 106.3 | 106.2 |
2017-03 | 104.5 | 105.4 | 105.4 | 104.7 |
2017-04 | 103.7 | 107.8 | 106.0 | 107.8 |
2017-05 | 106.0 | 109.4 | 105.4 | 107.2 |
2017-06 | 111.7 | 109.0 | 105.0 | 108.4 |
2017-07 | 108.7 | 109.6 | 108.2 | 106.8 |
2017-08 | 109.0 | 107.3 | 108.5 | 108.4 |
2017-09 | 106.8 | 107.8 | 109.3 | 108.4 |
2017-10 | 111.1 | 110.0 | 108.5 | 110.1 |
2017-11 | 112.1 | 110.2 | 109.2 | 110.9 |
2017-12 | 110.6 | 111.7 | 110.2 | 110.3 |
2018-01 | 111.2 | 113.2 | 112.1 | 110.7 |
2018-02 | 110.2 | 111.3 | 112.2 | 110.0 |
2018-03 | 109.5 | 110.7 | 111.5 | 109.3 |
2018-04 | 109.6 | 110.8 | 112.7 | 107.7 |
2018-05 | 108.1 | 111.7 | 108.1 | 107.8 |
2018-06 | 109.9 | 108.4 | 109.8 | 105.7 |
2018-07 | 108.0 | 108.8 | 105.9 | 106.6 |
2018-08 | 108.1 | 108.5 | 106.5 | 105.9 |
2018-09 | 106.7 | 107.8 | 105.0 | 104.8 |
2018-10 | 102.4 | 107.3 | 103.6 | 102.4 |
2018-11 | 108.6 | 102.3 | 103.9 | 102.5 |
2018-12 | 107.2 | 102.5 | 102.0 | 101.9 |
2019-01 | 107.5 | 103.9 | 102.2 | 101.7 |
2019-02 | 108.6 | 105.1 | 100.4 | 101.2 |
2019-03 | 107.5 | 101.2 | 102.7 | 101.4 |
2019-04 | 107.1 | 101.8 | 101.1 | 100.9 |
2019-05 | 111.9 | 104.3 | 102.3 | 102.3 |
2019-06 | 108.0 | 99.2 | 100.4 | 100.8 |
2019-07 | 104.3 | 103.4 | 99.0 | 100.6 |
2019-08 | 108.7 | 100.1 | 101.3 | 101.9 |
2019-09 | 107.9 | 99.9 | 101.0 | 101.4 |
2019-10 | 105.5 | 96.7 | 100.4 | 98.5 |
2019-11 | 102.7 | 98.1 | 105.4 | 100.5 |
2019-12 | 107.4 | 97.5 | 98.8 | 97.4 |
2020-01 | 107.2 | 101.3 | 105.3 | 98.9 |
2020-02 | 108.0 | 99.6 | 99.7 | 100.2 |
2020-03 | 108.8 | 98.5 | 95.7 | 97.2 |
2020-04 | 93.3 | 84.7 | 90.1 | 84.0 |
graphiqueBusiness climates in a sector-based approach

- Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
- Source: INSEE
tableauBusiness climates in a sector-based approach
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] | Weights** (%) | Feb. 19 | Mar. 20 | Apr. 20 |
---|---|---|---|---|
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages | 21 | 108 | 109 | 93 |
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods | 11 | 100 | 98 | 85 |
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products | 3 | 104 | 102 | 88 |
[CJ] Electrical equipment | 3 | 99 | 99 | 82 |
[CK] Machinery and equipment | 5 | 98 | 96 | 88 |
(C4) Man. of transport equipment | 18 | 100 | 96 | 90 |
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers | 8 | 103 | 96 | 90 |
[CL2] Other transport equipment | 10 | 96 | 96 | 91 |
(C5) Other manufacturing | 46 | 100 | 97 | 84 |
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry | 2 | 103 | 104 | 82 |
[CC] Wood, paper, printing | 5 | 106 | 102 | 95 |
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products | 8 | 95 | 89 | 77 |
[CG] Rubber and plastic products | 7 | 99 | 98 | 85 |
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products | 11 | 96 | 96 | 86 |
[CM] Other manufacturing industries | 10 | 108 | 99 | 85 |
- * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
- ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
- Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.
Next issue: 26 May 2020 at 8:45
Documentation
Methodology (pdf,133 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.
Next issue: 26 May 2020 at 8:45
Time series : Industry - Activity and demand