Informations rapides
23 April 2020
2020- n° 100
In April 2020, the business climate in the manufacturing industry has fallen dramatically Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - April 2020

According to the business managers surveyed in April 2020, the business climate in industry has heavily fallen. The composite indicator has lost 16 points, a drop not seen since the beginning of the indicator in 1975, in relation with the health crisis. At 82, it has dropped well below its long term average (100). In particular, the balances of opinion related to production prospects have reached historically low levels.

Informations rapides
No 100
Paru le :Paru le23/04/2020
Prochaine parution le : 25/04/2025 at 08:45 - April 2025
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Warning

Given the context of the fight against the spread of COVID-19, the statistics published in this issue of Informations Rapides may be less accurate than usual.

Companies’ responses were collected between 25 March and 17 April 2020, during general lockdown, solely online and without any reminder. Consequently, the response rate is lower this month than usual. Given the usual non-response completion design, relying on past answers for non-responding firms, it is possible that some indicators are overestimated in this publication.

According to the business managers surveyed in April 2020, the business climate in industry has heavily fallen. The composite indicator has lost 16 points, a drop not seen since the beginning of the indicator in 1975, in relation with the health crisis. At 82, it has dropped well below its long term average (100). In particular, the balances of opinion related to production prospects have reached historically low levels.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
1998-01 112.7
1998-02 113.3
1998-03 117.2
1998-04 115.3
1998-05 115.0
1998-06 115.3
1998-07 114.0
1998-08 113.0
1998-09 112.1
1998-10 106.9
1998-11 104.0
1998-12 102.2
1999-01 101.6
1999-02 102.0
1999-03 96.8
1999-04 98.3
1999-05 100.7
1999-06 99.5
1999-07 105.9
1999-08 109.1
1999-09 112.0
1999-10 113.4
1999-11 116.6
1999-12 114.5
2000-01 115.8
2000-02 117.8
2000-03 120.0
2000-04 120.0
2000-05 121.4
2000-06 124.4
2000-07 121.5
2000-08 121.6
2000-09 121.3
2000-10 120.1
2000-11 118.2
2000-12 114.3
2001-01 113.0
2001-02 113.1
2001-03 111.7
2001-04 107.4
2001-05 105.7
2001-06 104.1
2001-07 101.6
2001-08 98.6
2001-09 95.4
2001-10 94.9
2001-11 90.9
2001-12 92.3
2002-01 93.3
2002-02 95.0
2002-03 96.9
2002-04 98.4
2002-05 102.1
2002-06 100.4
2002-07 97.3
2002-08 98.0
2002-09 98.9
2002-10 95.7
2002-11 96.4
2002-12 100.9
2003-01 97.7
2003-02 97.3
2003-03 92.8
2003-04 91.7
2003-05 91.5
2003-06 89.8
2003-07 92.5
2003-08 92.3
2003-09 92.6
2003-10 95.5
2003-11 99.9
2003-12 100.5
2004-01 100.2
2004-02 100.4
2004-03 103.6
2004-04 103.3
2004-05 104.7
2004-06 105.3
2004-07 105.1
2004-08 105.2
2004-09 105.2
2004-10 105.0
2004-11 103.1
2004-12 103.3
2005-01 103.3
2005-02 103.1
2005-03 99.6
2005-04 96.5
2005-05 97.0
2005-06 99.0
2005-07 100.1
2005-08 99.6
2005-09 98.9
2005-10 101.1
2005-11 101.0
2005-12 104.1
2006-01 103.0
2006-02 106.6
2006-03 106.4
2006-04 107.9
2006-05 108.9
2006-06 108.7
2006-07 108.9
2006-08 108.5
2006-09 108.1
2006-10 107.2
2006-11 109.7
2006-12 109.3
2007-01 108.3
2007-02 111.8
2007-03 111.4
2007-04 112.1
2007-05 110.1
2007-06 111.2
2007-07 111.6
2007-08 111.0
2007-09 110.6
2007-10 110.0
2007-11 112.3
2007-12 112.6
2008-01 110.6
2008-02 110.4
2008-03 110.0
2008-04 107.5
2008-05 104.1
2008-06 103.5
2008-07 98.7
2008-08 98.0
2008-09 91.5
2008-10 86.9
2008-11 79.5
2008-12 73.0
2009-01 72.1
2009-02 68.0
2009-03 66.1
2009-04 70.1
2009-05 71.9
2009-06 74.6
2009-07 76.0
2009-08 80.6
2009-09 83.7
2009-10 84.9
2009-11 87.4
2009-12 87.3
2010-01 90.0
2010-02 88.5
2010-03 90.9
2010-04 95.0
2010-05 96.5
2010-06 95.7
2010-07 97.2
2010-08 100.4
2010-09 102.9
2010-10 104.1
2010-11 101.7
2010-12 104.2
2011-01 108.8
2011-02 106.9
2011-03 110.2
2011-04 110.1
2011-05 107.2
2011-06 110.0
2011-07 104.8
2011-08 101.2
2011-09 99.2
2011-10 97.3
2011-11 97.5
2011-12 94.6
2012-01 94.9
2012-02 94.8
2012-03 96.4
2012-04 95.5
2012-05 94.7
2012-06 93.0
2012-07 91.0
2012-08 92.8
2012-09 92.6
2012-10 86.9
2012-11 91.6
2012-12 90.7
2013-01 89.6
2013-02 90.4
2013-03 90.4
2013-04 87.5
2013-05 92.0
2013-06 92.6
2013-07 94.6
2013-08 98.5
2013-09 95.8
2013-10 97.8
2013-11 98.1
2013-12 99.2
2014-01 99.5
2014-02 98.3
2014-03 100.8
2014-04 100.2
2014-05 98.3
2014-06 96.5
2014-07 96.2
2014-08 96.6
2014-09 96.8
2014-10 97.4
2014-11 98.8
2014-12 98.6
2015-01 98.7
2015-02 98.4
2015-03 98.9
2015-04 101.5
2015-05 101.8
2015-06 100.2
2015-07 101.5
2015-08 103.7
2015-09 104.7
2015-10 103.1
2015-11 102.3
2015-12 102.4
2016-01 102.6
2016-02 103.0
2016-03 102.5
2016-04 104.8
2016-05 104.4
2016-06 101.4
2016-07 101.6
2016-08 101.7
2016-09 103.4
2016-10 102.1
2016-11 102.0
2016-12 105.5
2017-01 105.9
2017-02 106.8
2017-03 105.6
2017-04 108.7
2017-05 108.9
2017-06 108.9
2017-07 108.1
2017-08 110.3
2017-09 110.9
2017-10 111.0
2017-11 111.5
2017-12 111.5
2018-01 113.5
2018-02 112.5
2018-03 110.7
2018-04 110.7
2018-05 110.0
2018-06 109.6
2018-07 108.6
2018-08 109.1
2018-09 107.1
2018-10 104.1
2018-11 105.0
2018-12 102.9
2019-01 103.1
2019-02 103.3
2019-03 103.6
2019-04 101.6
2019-05 103.9
2019-06 101.8
2019-07 101.4
2019-08 102.6
2019-09 101.7
2019-10 99.4
2019-11 101.6
2019-12 98.5
2020-01 101.9
2020-02 100.6
2020-03 97.7
2020-04 81.9

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Ave.* Jan. 19 Feb. 20 Mar. 20 Apr. 20
Manufacturing industry
Composite indicator 100 102 101 98 82
Past activity 5 -3 -5 7 -14
Finished-goods inventory 12 7 3 3 6
Overall order books -18 -10 -11 -16 -33
Export order books -14 -8 -17 -19 -36
Past workforce size -9 -3 -2 -3 -8
Expected workforce size -11 -2 -2 -5 -19
Personal production expectations 5 8 7 -7 -35
General production expectations -8 -5 0 -33 -78
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Tumbling production prospects

In April 2020, the industrialists’ balance of opinion on personal production prospects has collapsed below its former lowest level since the serie has existed, that was reached in 2009. The balance of opinion on the general production prospects for the sector has plunged again (-78% in April) and has also moved below its historically low values of 2009.

The balances of opinion on past activity and order books, total and foreign, have significantly declined, back to the low values of 2013. The balance regarding stocks has sligtly risen.

Considering employment, the balance of opinion on recent variation has dipped and the one on expected variation has slumped.

Sharp deterioration in all sub-sectors

The business climate indicators have deteriorated in all sub-sectors. The results are especially fragile in sub-sectors where the drops in the response rates are the sharpest, especially in the manufacture of transport equipment.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2011-01 109.3 105.1 105.1 105.1
2011-02 107.5 103.2 99.4 108.3
2011-03 106.6 107.5 106.0 109.7
2011-04 108.8 105.5 105.7 109.9
2011-05 109.4 104.1 105.0 107.5
2011-06 108.5 105.2 109.3 108.8
2011-07 111.0 103.2 103.7 104.8
2011-08 103.4 101.1 101.6 100.2
2011-09 101.8 100.0 98.6 97.9
2011-10 104.2 98.6 100.0 96.2
2011-11 102.1 96.3 102.0 94.0
2011-12 98.0 96.6 99.9 94.3
2012-01 99.7 96.5 94.7 93.9
2012-02 100.3 96.4 93.4 95.7
2012-03 102.0 97.0 102.7 97.0
2012-04 99.0 96.5 93.7 97.7
2012-05 93.5 95.1 94.6 95.7
2012-06 94.7 91.3 95.4 93.5
2012-07 94.7 91.1 94.8 92.1
2012-08 93.6 90.6 94.9 93.3
2012-09 96.5 91.3 96.8 93.5
2012-10 91.0 86.1 95.4 89.2
2012-11 98.2 87.5 92.5 92.1
2012-12 98.7 87.9 92.0 91.7
2013-01 97.6 88.0 92.1 91.0
2013-02 98.0 89.0 94.0 90.0
2013-03 94.0 89.2 93.5 91.0
2013-04 91.8 90.0 92.6 89.1
2013-05 91.6 90.0 94.6 91.6
2013-06 92.5 89.5 94.5 93.1
2013-07 92.1 90.0 98.6 94.8
2013-08 95.3 92.1 101.2 97.0
2013-09 94.9 90.5 97.4 97.0
2013-10 95.4 90.8 103.5 97.6
2013-11 98.1 93.1 101.8 98.5
2013-12 98.6 92.2 99.8 99.0
2014-01 99.5 91.7 102.3 98.5
2014-02 99.1 94.3 97.8 98.2
2014-03 99.7 93.2 100.5 102.2
2014-04 95.7 92.9 102.7 100.0
2014-05 97.9 94.2 98.1 99.3
2014-06 95.9 92.2 97.9 98.4
2014-07 97.0 89.7 99.1 98.8
2014-08 95.2 93.8 97.6 100.4
2014-09 94.3 92.6 100.6 97.0
2014-10 95.6 92.9 97.1 98.3
2014-11 96.2 92.6 99.9 99.6
2014-12 99.0 92.6 99.6 100.0
2015-01 103.1 93.9 101.5 99.5
2015-02 99.3 95.6 100.9 100.0
2015-03 100.7 94.5 105.1 99.9
2015-04 104.4 97.1 106.9 100.4
2015-05 102.2 97.6 104.8 101.3
2015-06 105.1 97.7 105.0 100.8
2015-07 108.7 98.8 104.7 102.7
2015-08 103.4 98.0 107.8 101.4
2015-09 105.4 96.6 108.9 102.4
2015-10 104.2 98.7 107.7 99.7
2015-11 102.1 100.1 107.7 99.3
2015-12 99.7 98.6 107.7 101.5
2016-01 101.7 101.2 108.0 99.1
2016-02 100.1 101.1 108.9 99.7
2016-03 101.6 99.7 105.8 100.9
2016-04 105.5 100.7 109.1 101.0
2016-05 103.4 98.0 105.9 103.7
2016-06 103.1 97.8 105.8 101.4
2016-07 104.5 98.2 105.1 101.6
2016-08 99.3 98.7 103.8 101.4
2016-09 108.4 99.0 105.0 100.3
2016-10 106.5 97.9 105.6 101.0
2016-11 107.6 100.2 102.2 101.1
2016-12 108.2 104.1 104.4 104.5
2017-01 104.0 103.0 106.6 105.1
2017-02 105.5 104.4 106.3 106.2
2017-03 104.5 105.4 105.4 104.7
2017-04 103.7 107.8 106.0 107.8
2017-05 106.0 109.4 105.4 107.2
2017-06 111.7 109.0 105.0 108.4
2017-07 108.7 109.6 108.2 106.8
2017-08 109.0 107.3 108.5 108.4
2017-09 106.8 107.8 109.3 108.4
2017-10 111.1 110.0 108.5 110.1
2017-11 112.1 110.2 109.2 110.9
2017-12 110.6 111.7 110.2 110.3
2018-01 111.2 113.2 112.1 110.7
2018-02 110.2 111.3 112.2 110.0
2018-03 109.5 110.7 111.5 109.3
2018-04 109.6 110.8 112.7 107.7
2018-05 108.1 111.7 108.1 107.8
2018-06 109.9 108.4 109.8 105.7
2018-07 108.0 108.8 105.9 106.6
2018-08 108.1 108.5 106.5 105.9
2018-09 106.7 107.8 105.0 104.8
2018-10 102.4 107.3 103.6 102.4
2018-11 108.6 102.3 103.9 102.5
2018-12 107.2 102.5 102.0 101.9
2019-01 107.5 103.9 102.2 101.7
2019-02 108.6 105.1 100.4 101.2
2019-03 107.5 101.2 102.7 101.4
2019-04 107.1 101.8 101.1 100.9
2019-05 111.9 104.3 102.3 102.3
2019-06 108.0 99.2 100.4 100.8
2019-07 104.3 103.4 99.0 100.6
2019-08 108.7 100.1 101.3 101.9
2019-09 107.9 99.9 101.0 101.4
2019-10 105.5 96.7 100.4 98.5
2019-11 102.7 98.1 105.4 100.5
2019-12 107.4 97.5 98.8 97.4
2020-01 107.2 101.3 105.3 98.9
2020-02 108.0 99.6 99.7 100.2
2020-03 108.8 98.5 95.7 97.2
2020-04 93.3 84.7 90.1 84.0

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Weights** (%) Feb. 19 Mar. 20 Apr. 20
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 21 108 109 93
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 100 98 85
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 104 102 88
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 99 99 82
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 98 96 88
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 18 100 96 90
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 8 103 96 90
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 96 96 91
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 100 97 84
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 103 104 82
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 106 102 95
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 95 89 77
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 99 98 85
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 96 96 86
[CM] Other manufacturing industries 10 108 99 85
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

For further information

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue: 26 May 2020 at 8:45

Documentation

Methodology (pdf,133 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue: 26 May 2020 at 8:45

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