26 March 2020
2020- n° 77In March 2020, the business climate has dramatically fallen in services Monthly survey of services - March 2020
According to business managers surveyed in March 2020, the business climate has dramatically fallen in services. The business climate composite indicator has lost fourteen points, a fall never seen since the beginning of the indicator in 1989, linked to the health crisis. At 92, it stands henceforth sharply below its long-term average (100).
Otherwise, the indicator of February 2020 has been revised downwards by one point because of late businesses’ answers that have been taken into account.
Given the context of the fight against the spread of COVID-19, the statistics published in this issue of Informations Rapides may be less accurate than usual.
Companies’ responses were collected between 26 February and 23 March 2020. However, as of 14 March, only the responses received via the internet could be processed. In addition, many companies may have encountered difficulties in responding to the survey. Most responses were collected before 16 March 2020, the date from which schools have been closed.
According to business managers surveyed in March 2020, the business climate has dramatically fallen in services. The business climate composite indicator has lost fourteen points, a fall never seen since the beginning of the indicator in 1989, linked to the health crisis. At 92, it stands henceforth sharply below its long-term average (100).
Otherwise, the indicator of February 2020 has been revised downwards by one point because of late businesses’ answers that have been taken into account.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-01 | 104.4 |
| 1998-02 | 105.6 |
| 1998-03 | 106.8 |
| 1998-04 | 108.0 |
| 1998-05 | 107.7 |
| 1998-06 | 107.3 |
| 1998-07 | 106.9 |
| 1998-08 | 106.0 |
| 1998-09 | 105.2 |
| 1998-10 | 104.3 |
| 1998-11 | 102.5 |
| 1998-12 | 100.6 |
| 1999-01 | 98.7 |
| 1999-02 | 99.6 |
| 1999-03 | 100.5 |
| 1999-04 | 101.4 |
| 1999-05 | 102.9 |
| 1999-06 | 104.4 |
| 1999-07 | 106.0 |
| 1999-08 | 108.7 |
| 1999-09 | 111.5 |
| 1999-10 | 114.2 |
| 1999-11 | 112.7 |
| 1999-12 | 111.2 |
| 2000-01 | 109.6 |
| 2000-02 | 109.0 |
| 2000-03 | 108.5 |
| 2000-04 | 107.9 |
| 2000-05 | 111.3 |
| 2000-06 | 114.7 |
| 2000-07 | 113.1 |
| 2000-08 | 115.4 |
| 2000-09 | 116.9 |
| 2000-10 | 116.2 |
| 2000-11 | 115.1 |
| 2000-12 | 115.7 |
| 2001-01 | 114.7 |
| 2001-02 | 113.4 |
| 2001-03 | 113.7 |
| 2001-04 | 109.0 |
| 2001-05 | 106.0 |
| 2001-06 | 105.9 |
| 2001-07 | 103.4 |
| 2001-08 | 102.6 |
| 2001-09 | 101.1 |
| 2001-10 | 95.8 |
| 2001-11 | 95.1 |
| 2001-12 | 95.5 |
| 2002-01 | 96.5 |
| 2002-02 | 97.9 |
| 2002-03 | 102.1 |
| 2002-04 | 104.5 |
| 2002-05 | 105.4 |
| 2002-06 | 102.5 |
| 2002-07 | 100.7 |
| 2002-08 | 99.2 |
| 2002-09 | 97.1 |
| 2002-10 | 97.8 |
| 2002-11 | 99.4 |
| 2002-12 | 100.5 |
| 2003-01 | 96.7 |
| 2003-02 | 95.2 |
| 2003-03 | 89.9 |
| 2003-04 | 86.9 |
| 2003-05 | 91.4 |
| 2003-06 | 93.0 |
| 2003-07 | 96.5 |
| 2003-08 | 98.1 |
| 2003-09 | 99.1 |
| 2003-10 | 100.0 |
| 2003-11 | 101.6 |
| 2003-12 | 104.2 |
| 2004-01 | 106.6 |
| 2004-02 | 106.6 |
| 2004-03 | 106.3 |
| 2004-04 | 106.1 |
| 2004-05 | 106.7 |
| 2004-06 | 105.5 |
| 2004-07 | 106.8 |
| 2004-08 | 106.3 |
| 2004-09 | 105.5 |
| 2004-10 | 106.9 |
| 2004-11 | 106.3 |
| 2004-12 | 109.5 |
| 2005-01 | 106.9 |
| 2005-02 | 106.5 |
| 2005-03 | 108.8 |
| 2005-04 | 108.5 |
| 2005-05 | 106.4 |
| 2005-06 | 109.0 |
| 2005-07 | 108.3 |
| 2005-08 | 107.9 |
| 2005-09 | 107.5 |
| 2005-10 | 109.1 |
| 2005-11 | 106.8 |
| 2005-12 | 107.1 |
| 2006-01 | 109.3 |
| 2006-02 | 106.7 |
| 2006-03 | 108.1 |
| 2006-04 | 108.5 |
| 2006-05 | 111.4 |
| 2006-06 | 109.9 |
| 2006-07 | 111.2 |
| 2006-08 | 111.3 |
| 2006-09 | 111.5 |
| 2006-10 | 111.8 |
| 2006-11 | 114.3 |
| 2006-12 | 112.5 |
| 2007-01 | 111.8 |
| 2007-02 | 113.3 |
| 2007-03 | 114.5 |
| 2007-04 | 114.2 |
| 2007-05 | 114.1 |
| 2007-06 | 113.7 |
| 2007-07 | 114.3 |
| 2007-08 | 113.3 |
| 2007-09 | 112.5 |
| 2007-10 | 111.0 |
| 2007-11 | 111.1 |
| 2007-12 | 109.9 |
| 2008-01 | 111.4 |
| 2008-02 | 109.4 |
| 2008-03 | 109.5 |
| 2008-04 | 107.7 |
| 2008-05 | 105.0 |
| 2008-06 | 101.4 |
| 2008-07 | 96.6 |
| 2008-08 | 94.9 |
| 2008-09 | 92.6 |
| 2008-10 | 83.0 |
| 2008-11 | 78.6 |
| 2008-12 | 75.0 |
| 2009-01 | 72.1 |
| 2009-02 | 70.7 |
| 2009-03 | 64.9 |
| 2009-04 | 65.0 |
| 2009-05 | 69.5 |
| 2009-06 | 74.7 |
| 2009-07 | 78.9 |
| 2009-08 | 81.9 |
| 2009-09 | 85.5 |
| 2009-10 | 89.0 |
| 2009-11 | 90.5 |
| 2009-12 | 91.1 |
| 2010-01 | 92.8 |
| 2010-02 | 93.0 |
| 2010-03 | 93.3 |
| 2010-04 | 96.8 |
| 2010-05 | 98.7 |
| 2010-06 | 97.7 |
| 2010-07 | 98.7 |
| 2010-08 | 100.4 |
| 2010-09 | 101.4 |
| 2010-10 | 102.9 |
| 2010-11 | 105.0 |
| 2010-12 | 107.3 |
| 2011-01 | 107.6 |
| 2011-02 | 110.0 |
| 2011-03 | 111.3 |
| 2011-04 | 109.9 |
| 2011-05 | 108.3 |
| 2011-06 | 107.8 |
| 2011-07 | 105.5 |
| 2011-08 | 100.5 |
| 2011-09 | 98.1 |
| 2011-10 | 96.8 |
| 2011-11 | 94.4 |
| 2011-12 | 94.0 |
| 2012-01 | 91.9 |
| 2012-02 | 91.2 |
| 2012-03 | 92.7 |
| 2012-04 | 94.9 |
| 2012-05 | 90.8 |
| 2012-06 | 88.6 |
| 2012-07 | 88.0 |
| 2012-08 | 85.8 |
| 2012-09 | 85.4 |
| 2012-10 | 84.2 |
| 2012-11 | 83.5 |
| 2012-12 | 85.3 |
| 2013-01 | 86.5 |
| 2013-02 | 85.1 |
| 2013-03 | 81.9 |
| 2013-04 | 80.9 |
| 2013-05 | 82.5 |
| 2013-06 | 84.0 |
| 2013-07 | 84.5 |
| 2013-08 | 86.7 |
| 2013-09 | 90.8 |
| 2013-10 | 90.2 |
| 2013-11 | 91.0 |
| 2013-12 | 89.4 |
| 2014-01 | 90.9 |
| 2014-02 | 90.7 |
| 2014-03 | 91.7 |
| 2014-04 | 92.1 |
| 2014-05 | 90.9 |
| 2014-06 | 90.9 |
| 2014-07 | 91.2 |
| 2014-08 | 90.1 |
| 2014-09 | 89.5 |
| 2014-10 | 89.8 |
| 2014-11 | 89.7 |
| 2014-12 | 89.8 |
| 2015-01 | 89.6 |
| 2015-02 | 89.9 |
| 2015-03 | 90.9 |
| 2015-04 | 92.6 |
| 2015-05 | 94.4 |
| 2015-06 | 95.9 |
| 2015-07 | 96.7 |
| 2015-08 | 98.0 |
| 2015-09 | 96.8 |
| 2015-10 | 99.1 |
| 2015-11 | 98.8 |
| 2015-12 | 96.3 |
| 2016-01 | 99.6 |
| 2016-02 | 99.4 |
| 2016-03 | 99.0 |
| 2016-04 | 97.7 |
| 2016-05 | 100.4 |
| 2016-06 | 98.6 |
| 2016-07 | 99.9 |
| 2016-08 | 99.6 |
| 2016-09 | 100.4 |
| 2016-10 | 100.4 |
| 2016-11 | 100.5 |
| 2016-12 | 103.6 |
| 2017-01 | 101.4 |
| 2017-02 | 102.6 |
| 2017-03 | 103.3 |
| 2017-04 | 103.1 |
| 2017-05 | 102.6 |
| 2017-06 | 103.5 |
| 2017-07 | 103.8 |
| 2017-08 | 106.1 |
| 2017-09 | 107.0 |
| 2017-10 | 107.2 |
| 2017-11 | 107.9 |
| 2017-12 | 109.4 |
| 2018-01 | 108.2 |
| 2018-02 | 106.8 |
| 2018-03 | 107.1 |
| 2018-04 | 106.0 |
| 2018-05 | 104.3 |
| 2018-06 | 104.9 |
| 2018-07 | 104.4 |
| 2018-08 | 103.6 |
| 2018-09 | 104.5 |
| 2018-10 | 103.1 |
| 2018-11 | 103.7 |
| 2018-12 | 101.8 |
| 2019-01 | 103.4 |
| 2019-02 | 103.3 |
| 2019-03 | 104.7 |
| 2019-04 | 105.6 |
| 2019-05 | 106.0 |
| 2019-06 | 106.5 |
| 2019-07 | 105.1 |
| 2019-08 | 104.7 |
| 2019-09 | 105.9 |
| 2019-10 | 105.8 |
| 2019-11 | 106.4 |
| 2019-12 | 106.8 |
| 2020-01 | 106.3 |
| 2020-02 | 106.1 |
| 2020-03 | 92.1 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE.
Drastic fall in the balances on expectations of business managers
The balances of opinion on expected activity, on expected demand and on general outlook have very strongly fallen, a decrease unprecedented since the start of the survey in 1988. They have fallen below their average. The balance on past activity has fallen back but stands above its long-term average.
Concerning employment, the balances on past and on expected employment have strongly deteriorated and moved below their average.
The balance on past investments has slightly increased again and remains above its average whereas that on expected investments has declined below its.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Dec. 2019 | Jan. 2020 | Feb. 2020 | Mar. 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 107 | 106 | 106 | 92 |
| General outlook | -7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -15 |
| Past activity | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 7 |
| Expected activity | 2 | 9 | 8 | 5 | -9 |
| Expected demand | 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | -10 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 |
| Past employment | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -4 |
| except temporary work agencies | 1 | 7 | 6 | 2 | -2 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -5 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -3 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Expected investments | 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 | -2 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate indicator has fallen below its long-term average in all sub-sectors. In most sub-sectors, the magnitude in this fall has not been seen since the beginning of the survey. The largest fall has been in accommodation and food service activities (-22 points).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Dec. 2019 | Jan. 2020 | Feb. 2020 | Mar. 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 104 | 105 | 93 |
| Past activity | -5 | -4 | -5 | 0 | -4 |
| Expected activity | -6 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -19 |
| Expected demand | -9 | 0 | -3 | 2 | -28 |
| Past employment | -5 | -1 | 2 | 7 | -3 |
| Expected employment | -7 | 5 | -3 | -9 | -10 |
| General outlook | -18 | -12 | -10 | -6 | -30 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 108 | 108 | 86 |
| Past activity | -6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -3 | 2 | -1 | -18 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -2 | 3 | -1 | -24 |
| Past employment | -4 | 6 | -1 | -9 | -10 |
| Expected employment | -5 | -7 | -9 | -8 | -10 |
| General outlook | -13 | -9 | -8 | -2 | -32 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 103 | 103 | 98 |
| Past activity | 8 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 22 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 1 |
| Expected demand | 10 | 9 | 14 | 2 | 3 |
| Past employment | 6 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -9 |
| Expected employment | 11 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 8 |
| General outlook | 0 | 11 | 8 | 4 | -3 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 102 | 101 | 90 |
| Past activity | 7 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| Expected activity | 7 | 8 | 8 | 5 | -4 |
| Expected demand | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -9 |
| Past employment | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | -5 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 8 | -1 | 8 | -3 |
| General outlook | -3 | -2 | -3 | -7 | -12 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 111 | 109 | 108 | 96 |
| Past activity | -1 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 1 |
| Expected activity | -2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | -10 |
| Expected demand | -5 | 6 | -1 | 4 | -9 |
| Past employment | 1 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 3 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 6 |
| General outlook | -8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | -14 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 104 | 105 | 85 |
| Past activity | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 6 | 11 | 8 | -16 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | -16 |
| Past employment | 9 | -3 | 3 | 13 | -2 |
| Expected employment | 8 | 8 | 13 | 17 | -10 |
| General outlook | -3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -15 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 22 April 2020 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 22 April 2020 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
