Informations rapides
27 March 2020
2020- n° 82
In early March 2020, households’ fears about the future economic situation increased sharply Monthly consumer confidence survey - March 2020

In early March, households’ confidence in the economic situation decreased slightly: the synthetic index lost one point, now standing at 103.

Informations rapides
No 82
Paru le :Paru le27/03/2020
Prochaine parution le : 26/04/2024 at 08:45 - April 2024
Warning:

The survey was conducted from February, 26th to March, 17th 2020, essentially before the containment of the population began, on March, 16th, in the context of the fight against the spread of the Covid-19 virus. The collection of responses was shortened by one day compared to the dates initially planned. Therefore, this publication mainly reflects households’ views on the economic situation in early March.

In early March, households’ confidence in the economic situation decreased slightly: the synthetic index lost one point, now standing at 103.

Consumer confidence synthetic index

Consumer confidence synthetic index
Consumer confidence synthetic index
2000-01 119
2000-02 118
2000-03 119
2000-04 122
2000-05 122
2000-06 123
2000-07 124
2000-08 121
2000-09 118
2000-10 120
2000-11 119
2000-12 123
2001-01 126
2001-02 124
2001-03 122
2001-04 121
2001-05 116
2001-06 115
2001-07 114
2001-08 113
2001-09 111
2001-10 111
2001-11 112
2001-12 112
2002-01 112
2002-02 111
2002-03 112
2002-04 109
2002-05 113
2002-06 111
2002-07 109
2002-08 108
2002-09 106
2002-10 108
2002-11 108
2002-12 108
2003-01 104
2003-02 102
2003-03 98
2003-04 99
2003-05 101
2003-06 101
2003-07 100
2003-08 100
2003-09 99
2003-10 98
2003-11 98
2003-12 98
2004-01 99
2004-02 98
2004-03 99
2004-04 101
2004-05 100
2004-06 99
2004-07 99
2004-08 100
2004-09 102
2004-10 101
2004-11 100
2004-12 99
2005-01 97
2005-02 99
2005-03 97
2005-04 97
2005-05 95
2005-06 94
2005-07 94
2005-08 93
2005-09 92
2005-10 91
2005-11 92
2005-12 95
2006-01 97
2006-02 98
2006-03 97
2006-04 96
2006-05 95
2006-06 96
2006-07 98
2006-08 98
2006-09 99
2006-10 99
2006-11 99
2006-12 98
2007-01 99
2007-02 99
2007-03 101
2007-04 101
2007-05 108
2007-06 108
2007-07 107
2007-08 104
2007-09 101
2007-10 100
2007-11 94
2007-12 94
2008-01 90
2008-02 90
2008-03 88
2008-04 88
2008-05 85
2008-06 81
2008-07 81
2008-08 82
2008-09 83
2008-10 81
2008-11 83
2008-12 83
2009-01 84
2009-02 83
2009-03 84
2009-04 86
2009-05 86
2009-06 89
2009-07 89
2009-08 89
2009-09 90
2009-10 90
2009-11 93
2009-12 94
2010-01 94
2010-02 91
2010-03 91
2010-04 89
2010-05 88
2010-06 87
2010-07 87
2010-08 89
2010-09 90
2010-10 91
2010-11 93
2010-12 90
2011-01 89
2011-02 89
2011-03 87
2011-04 86
2011-05 87
2011-06 86
2011-07 89
2011-08 85
2011-09 84
2011-10 86
2011-11 84
2011-12 83
2012-01 84
2012-02 85
2012-03 89
2012-04 90
2012-05 92
2012-06 91
2012-07 88
2012-08 86
2012-09 85
2012-10 84
2012-11 84
2012-12 86
2013-01 85
2013-02 86
2013-03 83
2013-04 84
2013-05 80
2013-06 79
2013-07 83
2013-08 85
2013-09 86
2013-10 86
2013-11 84
2013-12 85
2014-01 86
2014-02 85
2014-03 88
2014-04 85
2014-05 85
2014-06 85
2014-07 86
2014-08 86
2014-09 86
2014-10 86
2014-11 87
2014-12 90
2015-01 89
2015-02 92
2015-03 94
2015-04 95
2015-05 93
2015-06 93
2015-07 93
2015-08 93
2015-09 97
2015-10 96
2015-11 96
2015-12 96
2016-01 97
2016-02 96
2016-03 95
2016-04 94
2016-05 98
2016-06 96
2016-07 95
2016-08 96
2016-09 97
2016-10 98
2016-11 99
2016-12 100
2017-01 100
2017-02 101
2017-03 101
2017-04 100
2017-05 102
2017-06 108
2017-07 104
2017-08 103
2017-09 101
2017-10 100
2017-11 103
2017-12 106
2018-01 105
2018-02 100
2018-03 100
2018-04 101
2018-05 99
2018-06 96
2018-07 96
2018-08 96
2018-09 94
2018-10 94
2018-11 91
2018-12 88
2019-01 92
2019-02 95
2019-03 96
2019-04 97
2019-05 99
2019-06 101
2019-07 102
2019-08 103
2019-09 104
2019-10 104
2019-11 105
2019-12 102
2020-01 104
2020-02 104
2020-03 103

Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE.

Personal situation

Suitable time to make major purchases: sharp decrease

In early March, the share of households considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases decreased markedly compared to the previous month. The corresponding balance lost seven points and tumbled below its long term average.

Households' opinion balance on their future financial situation lost another two points and thus fell slightly below its long-term average. The balance related to their past financial situation gained two points and remains above its long-term average.

Saving capacity: slight increase

In early March, households’ opinion balance on their expected saving capacity increased again, by two points this month and remains above its long-term average. Households’ opinion balance related to their current saving capacity gained one point and also stays above its long-term average.

The share of households considering it is a suitable time to save increased compared to February. The corresponding balance gained two points but remains below its long-term average.

Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France
Standard of living, future Standard of living, past Financial situation, future Financial situation, past
2010-01 -32 -62 -9 -24
2010-02 -34 -67 -12 -27
2010-03 -40 -69 -13 -26
2010-04 -46 -69 -16 -27
2010-05 -52 -69 -19 -27
2010-06 -55 -71 -19 -27
2010-07 -49 -71 -19 -30
2010-08 -43 -66 -18 -29
2010-09 -42 -64 -18 -28
2010-10 -40 -64 -15 -28
2010-11 -38 -64 -11 -23
2010-12 -42 -68 -16 -26
2011-01 -44 -70 -18 -26
2011-02 -46 -67 -18 -27
2011-03 -51 -69 -23 -29
2011-04 -56 -71 -21 -31
2011-05 -49 -68 -20 -31
2011-06 -48 -68 -21 -33
2011-07 -42 -67 -18 -31
2011-08 -56 -71 -23 -30
2011-09 -55 -75 -24 -32
2011-10 -51 -73 -21 -29
2011-11 -59 -74 -25 -30
2011-12 -57 -74 -30 -32
2012-01 -54 -73 -27 -32
2012-02 -49 -73 -26 -32
2012-03 -40 -68 -19 -29
2012-04 -38 -66 -16 -29
2012-05 -30 -65 -16 -26
2012-06 -30 -68 -16 -27
2012-07 -43 -69 -19 -27
2012-08 -51 -72 -19 -29
2012-09 -57 -75 -21 -29
2012-10 -60 -73 -25 -29
2012-11 -55 -73 -25 -31
2012-12 -54 -69 -23 -29
2013-01 -58 -69 -25 -28
2013-02 -56 -71 -24 -27
2013-03 -61 -75 -26 -29
2013-04 -62 -76 -25 -28
2013-05 -63 -79 -26 -37
2013-06 -66 -80 -27 -35
2013-07 -57 -77 -24 -34
2013-08 -50 -73 -22 -33
2013-09 -46 -72 -20 -33
2013-10 -45 -69 -18 -35
2013-11 -53 -75 -19 -34
2013-12 -50 -72 -22 -34
2014-01 -48 -71 -19 -35
2014-02 -52 -72 -20 -34
2014-03 -47 -69 -19 -29
2014-04 -45 -70 -27 -32
2014-05 -50 -70 -23 -33
2014-06 -48 -69 -20 -36
2014-07 -49 -70 -17 -32
2014-08 -47 -70 -20 -33
2014-09 -51 -71 -20 -30
2014-10 -50 -74 -20 -31
2014-11 -48 -68 -17 -33
2014-12 -43 -66 -16 -27
2015-01 -42 -66 -17 -29
2015-02 -37 -61 -15 -27
2015-03 -34 -59 -13 -27
2015-04 -35 -58 -12 -24
2015-05 -34 -58 -14 -27
2015-06 -35 -58 -12 -27
2015-07 -36 -59 -12 -29
2015-08 -33 -57 -12 -29
2015-09 -28 -52 -6 -26
2015-10 -30 -54 -10 -24
2015-11 -31 -54 -10 -24
2015-12 -31 -54 -7 -26
2016-01 -27 -55 -9 -24
2016-02 -32 -56 -10 -24
2016-03 -35 -57 -12 -24
2016-04 -36 -57 -13 -25
2016-05 -28 -48 -10 -25
2016-06 -33 -54 -10 -23
2016-07 -33 -53 -10 -28
2016-08 -34 -54 -10 -22
2016-09 -29 -54 -9 -23
2016-10 -29 -53 -7 -23
2016-11 -26 -49 -8 -24
2016-12 -23 -51 -7 -22
2017-01 -27 -47 -5 -22
2017-02 -23 -48 -6 -22
2017-03 -22 -48 -7 -20
2017-04 -21 -51 -10 -19
2017-05 -17 -45 -6 -19
2017-06 1 -40 -4 -14
2017-07 -11 -40 -11 -17
2017-08 -20 -40 -9 -17
2017-09 -21 -42 -11 -21
2017-10 -24 -40 -15 -21
2017-11 -19 -39 -10 -19
2017-12 -13 -30 -9 -17
2018-01 -19 -29 -12 -16
2018-02 -24 -35 -18 -23
2018-03 -24 -40 -12 -24
2018-04 -21 -36 -11 -26
2018-05 -28 -39 -14 -25
2018-06 -32 -47 -14 -27
2018-07 -32 -48 -12 -28
2018-08 -30 -47 -12 -30
2018-09 -36 -50 -17 -30
2018-10 -32 -52 -16 -29
2018-11 -45 -57 -18 -28
2018-12 -38 -65 -21 -33
2019-01 -32 -61 -14 -28
2019-02 -30 -56 -12 -25
2019-03 -28 -54 -10 -26
2019-04 -27 -54 -8 -25
2019-05 -25 -51 -5 -23
2019-06 -23 -44 -6 -22
2019-07 -23 -42 -5 -20
2019-08 -22 -44 -4 -18
2019-09 -22 -40 -2 -18
2019-10 -24 -38 -4 -18
2019-11 -22 -35 -2 -17
2019-12 -29 -38 -6 -20
2020-01 -30 -37 -3 -16
2020-02 -26 -37 -5 -15
2020-03 -36 -33 -7 -13

Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE.

CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances (Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted )
Avg. (1) Dec 19 Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20
Synthetic index (2) 100 102 104 104 103
Financial sit., past 12 m. -21 -20 -16 -15 -13
Financial sit., next 12 m. -6 -6 -3 -5 -7
Current saving capacity 9 14 13 14 15
Expected saving capacity -9 -6 -1 0 2
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 17 10 7 7 9
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. -14 -8 -8 -9 -16
Standard of living, past 12 m. -45 -38 -37 -37 -33
Standard of living, next 12 m. -25 -29 -30 -26 -36
Unemployment, next 12 m. 33 9 9 -6 16
Consumer prices, past 12 m. -17 -34 -35 -36 -39
Consumer prices, next 12 m. -33 -23 -24 -24 -13
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2019
  • (2) The indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987–2019).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Economic situation in France

Future standard of living in France: sharp decrease

Households’ opinion balance about the future standard of living in France decreased sharply in early March: it lost ten points and tumbled below its long-term average.

On the contrary, the share of households considering that the past standard of living in France has improved during the past twelve months increased. The corresponding balance gained four points and remains above its long-term average.

Unemployment: rising fears

Households' fears about the unemployment trend increased sharply in early March (even before the announcement of the containment period). The corresponding balance increased by twenty-two points but remains below its long term average.

Households' unemployment expectations

Balance, SA
Households' unemployment expectations (Balance, SA)
Households' unemployment expectations
2010-01 55
2010-02 49
2010-03 58
2010-04 57
2010-05 58
2010-06 65
2010-07 59
2010-08 46
2010-09 31
2010-10 35
2010-11 35
2010-12 34
2011-01 37
2011-02 41
2011-03 33
2011-04 35
2011-05 27
2011-06 29
2011-07 37
2011-08 51
2011-09 57
2011-10 49
2011-11 61
2011-12 59
2012-01 57
2012-02 56
2012-03 52
2012-04 55
2012-05 43
2012-06 53
2012-07 65
2012-08 73
2012-09 73
2012-10 73
2012-11 70
2012-12 74
2013-01 72
2013-02 73
2013-03 77
2013-04 74
2013-05 78
2013-06 78
2013-07 61
2013-08 56
2013-09 51
2013-10 38
2013-11 62
2013-12 48
2014-01 55
2014-02 55
2014-03 55
2014-04 57
2014-05 61
2014-06 67
2014-07 67
2014-08 62
2014-09 67
2014-10 52
2014-11 66
2014-12 65
2015-01 66
2015-02 58
2015-03 43
2015-04 61
2015-05 61
2015-06 60
2015-07 58
2015-08 50
2015-09 45
2015-10 47
2015-11 36
2015-12 45
2016-01 36
2016-02 45
2016-03 39
2016-04 51
2016-05 24
2016-06 26
2016-07 28
2016-08 33
2016-09 29
2016-10 30
2016-11 29
2016-12 19
2017-01 18
2017-02 20
2017-03 20
2017-04 15
2017-05 21
2017-06 5
2017-07 9
2017-08 -2
2017-09 16
2017-10 13
2017-11 6
2017-12 6
2018-01 1
2018-02 6
2018-03 3
2018-04 3
2018-05 3
2018-06 16
2018-07 14
2018-08 23
2018-09 22
2018-10 7
2018-11 30
2018-12 30
2019-01 32
2019-02 14
2019-03 19
2019-04 25
2019-05 13
2019-06 14
2019-07 12
2019-08 7
2019-09 2
2019-10 3
2019-11 2
2019-12 9
2020-01 9
2020-02 -6
2020-03 16

Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE.

Expected inflation: marked increase

In early March, households considering that prices will be on the rise during the next twelve months were clearly more numerous than the previous month: the corresponding balance gained eleven points and still remains well above its long term average.

On the contrary, households’ considering that prices were on rise during the past twelve months were slightly less numerous than the previous month: the corresponding balance lost three points and stands well below its long term average.

Households' perception of prices

Balance, SA
Households' perception of prices (Balance, SA)
Past prices Future prices
2010-01 -14 -41
2010-02 -19 -41
2010-03 -19 -39
2010-04 -10 -34
2010-05 -11 -28
2010-06 -10 -29
2010-07 -6 -27
2010-08 -4 -24
2010-09 -2 -29
2010-10 0 -25
2010-11 3 -25
2010-12 9 -22
2011-01 18 -19
2011-02 25 -9
2011-03 30 6
2011-04 46 0
2011-05 40 -13
2011-06 33 -14
2011-07 32 -18
2011-08 27 -18
2011-09 25 -20
2011-10 22 -23
2011-11 20 -15
2011-12 19 -16
2012-01 21 -17
2012-02 23 -11
2012-03 22 -21
2012-04 27 -20
2012-05 12 -32
2012-06 12 -34
2012-07 -2 -25
2012-08 -1 -16
2012-09 3 -13
2012-10 -1 -15
2012-11 -4 -14
2012-12 -7 -19
2013-01 -8 -19
2013-02 -10 -22
2013-03 -10 -14
2013-04 -13 -20
2013-05 -16 -17
2013-06 -11 -19
2013-07 -8 -17
2013-08 -3 -21
2013-09 4 -24
2013-10 -8 -21
2013-11 -8 -23
2013-12 -8 -17
2014-01 -15 -16
2014-02 -19 -22
2014-03 -23 -28
2014-04 -24 -29
2014-05 -23 -26
2014-06 -28 -31
2014-07 -31 -31
2014-08 -35 -36
2014-09 -40 -33
2014-10 -38 -28
2014-11 -38 -37
2014-12 -46 -43
2015-01 -50 -45
2015-02 -51 -45
2015-03 -53 -48
2015-04 -51 -43
2015-05 -56 -40
2015-06 -54 -38
2015-07 -52 -37
2015-08 -50 -36
2015-09 -53 -41
2015-10 -50 -41
2015-11 -50 -41
2015-12 -51 -39
2016-01 -52 -41
2016-02 -56 -39
2016-03 -58 -37
2016-04 -57 -37
2016-05 -53 -38
2016-06 -53 -36
2016-07 -51 -37
2016-08 -51 -35
2016-09 -45 -34
2016-10 -52 -38
2016-11 -52 -39
2016-12 -48 -28
2017-01 -44 -24
2017-02 -46 -31
2017-03 -46 -25
2017-04 -50 -27
2017-05 -56 -34
2017-06 -56 -40
2017-07 -53 -31
2017-08 -54 -32
2017-09 -54 -30
2017-10 -50 -24
2017-11 -45 -28
2017-12 -46 -34
2018-01 -41 -15
2018-02 -35 -19
2018-03 -38 -23
2018-04 -39 -26
2018-05 -30 -18
2018-06 -26 -20
2018-07 -25 -20
2018-08 -25 -22
2018-09 -15 -16
2018-10 -15 -15
2018-11 -10 -13
2018-12 -9 -23
2019-01 -33 -40
2019-02 -28 -17
2019-03 -18 -23
2019-04 -19 -22
2019-05 -19 -22
2019-06 -19 -22
2019-07 -26 -23
2019-08 -26 -21
2019-09 -28 -25
2019-10 -27 -23
2019-11 -32 -25
2019-12 -34 -23
2020-01 -35 -24
2020-02 -36 -24
2020-03 -39 -13

Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE.

For more information

Definition – The synthetic households’ confidence index summarizes households’ opinion on the economic situation: the higher its value, the more favorable households’ judgment of the economic situation is. It is calculated using a factor analysis technique, which enables to summarize concomitant movements of highly correlated variables. The index describes here the common factor of 8 balances of opinion: past and future general economic situation in France, past and future personal financial situation, unemployment, major purchases intentions, current savings capacity and expected savings capacity.

Calculation method – Around 2,000 households are surveyed by telephone, during the first three weeks of each month. Answers to this survey were collected between February 28 and March 17 2020. For each question, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentages of positive and negative answers. Since the level of these balances is not open to direct interpretation, comments are based on their changes and their distance to their long–term average. Seasonal coefficients are calculated again every month, hence the slight revision of the seasonal adjusted balances history at each publication.

Next publication: 28 April 2020 at 8:45 am

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