Informations rapides
29 January 2020
2020- n° 22
In January 2020, households’ confidence has rebounded Monthly consumer confidence survey - January 2020

In January 2020, households’ confidence in the economic situation has rebounded. The synthetic index has gained two points, after losing three in December. At 104, it stays above its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 22
Paru le :Paru le29/01/2020
Prochaine parution le : 29/05/2024 at 08:45 - May 2024

In January 2020, households’ confidence in the economic situation has rebounded. The synthetic index has gained two points, after losing three in December. At 104, it stays above its long-term average (100).

Consumer confidence synthetic index

Consumer confidence synthetic index
Consumer confidence synthetic index
2000-01 119
2000-02 118
2000-03 119
2000-04 122
2000-05 122
2000-06 123
2000-07 124
2000-08 121
2000-09 118
2000-10 120
2000-11 119
2000-12 123
2001-01 126
2001-02 124
2001-03 122
2001-04 121
2001-05 116
2001-06 115
2001-07 114
2001-08 113
2001-09 111
2001-10 111
2001-11 112
2001-12 112
2002-01 112
2002-02 111
2002-03 112
2002-04 109
2002-05 113
2002-06 111
2002-07 109
2002-08 108
2002-09 106
2002-10 108
2002-11 108
2002-12 108
2003-01 104
2003-02 102
2003-03 98
2003-04 99
2003-05 101
2003-06 101
2003-07 100
2003-08 100
2003-09 99
2003-10 98
2003-11 98
2003-12 98
2004-01 99
2004-02 98
2004-03 99
2004-04 101
2004-05 100
2004-06 99
2004-07 99
2004-08 100
2004-09 102
2004-10 101
2004-11 100
2004-12 99
2005-01 97
2005-02 99
2005-03 97
2005-04 97
2005-05 95
2005-06 94
2005-07 94
2005-08 93
2005-09 92
2005-10 91
2005-11 92
2005-12 95
2006-01 97
2006-02 98
2006-03 97
2006-04 96
2006-05 95
2006-06 96
2006-07 98
2006-08 98
2006-09 99
2006-10 99
2006-11 99
2006-12 98
2007-01 99
2007-02 99
2007-03 101
2007-04 101
2007-05 108
2007-06 108
2007-07 107
2007-08 104
2007-09 101
2007-10 100
2007-11 94
2007-12 94
2008-01 90
2008-02 90
2008-03 88
2008-04 88
2008-05 85
2008-06 81
2008-07 81
2008-08 82
2008-09 83
2008-10 81
2008-11 83
2008-12 83
2009-01 84
2009-02 83
2009-03 84
2009-04 86
2009-05 86
2009-06 89
2009-07 89
2009-08 89
2009-09 90
2009-10 90
2009-11 93
2009-12 94
2010-01 94
2010-02 91
2010-03 91
2010-04 89
2010-05 88
2010-06 87
2010-07 87
2010-08 89
2010-09 90
2010-10 91
2010-11 93
2010-12 90
2011-01 89
2011-02 89
2011-03 87
2011-04 86
2011-05 87
2011-06 86
2011-07 89
2011-08 85
2011-09 84
2011-10 86
2011-11 84
2011-12 83
2012-01 84
2012-02 85
2012-03 89
2012-04 90
2012-05 92
2012-06 91
2012-07 88
2012-08 86
2012-09 85
2012-10 84
2012-11 84
2012-12 86
2013-01 85
2013-02 86
2013-03 83
2013-04 84
2013-05 80
2013-06 79
2013-07 83
2013-08 85
2013-09 86
2013-10 86
2013-11 84
2013-12 85
2014-01 86
2014-02 85
2014-03 88
2014-04 85
2014-05 85
2014-06 85
2014-07 86
2014-08 86
2014-09 86
2014-10 86
2014-11 87
2014-12 90
2015-01 89
2015-02 92
2015-03 94
2015-04 95
2015-05 93
2015-06 93
2015-07 93
2015-08 93
2015-09 97
2015-10 96
2015-11 96
2015-12 96
2016-01 97
2016-02 96
2016-03 95
2016-04 94
2016-05 98
2016-06 96
2016-07 95
2016-08 96
2016-09 97
2016-10 98
2016-11 99
2016-12 100
2017-01 100
2017-02 101
2017-03 101
2017-04 100
2017-05 102
2017-06 108
2017-07 104
2017-08 103
2017-09 101
2017-10 100
2017-11 103
2017-12 106
2018-01 105
2018-02 100
2018-03 100
2018-04 101
2018-05 99
2018-06 96
2018-07 96
2018-08 96
2018-09 94
2018-10 95
2018-11 91
2018-12 88
2019-01 92
2019-02 95
2019-03 96
2019-04 97
2019-05 99
2019-06 101
2019-07 102
2019-08 103
2019-09 104
2019-10 104
2019-11 105
2019-12 102
2020-01 104

Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE.

Personal situation

Past and future financial situation: rebound

In January, households' opinion balance on their future financial situation has gained four points after losing five in December. This brings it back above its long-term average. The opinion balance related to their past financial situation has gained three points after losing two last month. It remains above its average.

Furthermore, the share of households considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases has slightly increased compared to the previous month: the corresponding balance has gained one point and remains above its long-term average.

Expected saving capacity: increase

In January, households’ opinion balance on their expected saving capacity has increased by two points and remains above its long-term average.

Households’ opinion on their current saving capacity has been stable for the fourth consecutive month.

The share of households considering it is a suitable time to save has declined again: the corresponding balance has fallen by two points and remains below its long-term average.

Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France
Standard of living, future Standard of living, past Financial situation, future Financial situation, past
2010-01 -32 -62 -9 -24
2010-02 -34 -67 -12 -27
2010-03 -40 -69 -13 -26
2010-04 -46 -69 -16 -27
2010-05 -52 -69 -19 -27
2010-06 -55 -71 -19 -27
2010-07 -49 -71 -19 -30
2010-08 -43 -66 -18 -29
2010-09 -42 -64 -18 -28
2010-10 -40 -64 -15 -28
2010-11 -38 -64 -11 -23
2010-12 -42 -68 -16 -26
2011-01 -44 -70 -18 -26
2011-02 -46 -67 -18 -27
2011-03 -51 -69 -23 -29
2011-04 -56 -71 -21 -31
2011-05 -49 -68 -20 -31
2011-06 -48 -68 -21 -33
2011-07 -42 -67 -18 -31
2011-08 -56 -71 -23 -30
2011-09 -55 -75 -24 -32
2011-10 -51 -73 -21 -29
2011-11 -59 -74 -25 -30
2011-12 -57 -74 -30 -32
2012-01 -54 -73 -27 -32
2012-02 -49 -73 -26 -32
2012-03 -40 -68 -19 -29
2012-04 -38 -66 -16 -29
2012-05 -30 -65 -16 -26
2012-06 -30 -68 -16 -27
2012-07 -43 -69 -19 -27
2012-08 -51 -72 -19 -29
2012-09 -57 -75 -21 -29
2012-10 -60 -73 -25 -29
2012-11 -55 -73 -25 -31
2012-12 -54 -69 -23 -29
2013-01 -58 -69 -25 -28
2013-02 -56 -71 -24 -27
2013-03 -61 -75 -26 -29
2013-04 -62 -76 -25 -28
2013-05 -63 -79 -26 -37
2013-06 -66 -80 -27 -35
2013-07 -57 -77 -24 -34
2013-08 -50 -73 -22 -33
2013-09 -46 -72 -20 -33
2013-10 -45 -69 -18 -35
2013-11 -53 -75 -19 -34
2013-12 -50 -73 -22 -34
2014-01 -48 -71 -19 -35
2014-02 -52 -72 -20 -34
2014-03 -47 -69 -19 -29
2014-04 -45 -70 -27 -32
2014-05 -50 -70 -22 -33
2014-06 -48 -69 -20 -36
2014-07 -49 -70 -17 -32
2014-08 -47 -70 -20 -33
2014-09 -51 -71 -20 -31
2014-10 -50 -74 -20 -31
2014-11 -48 -68 -17 -33
2014-12 -43 -66 -16 -27
2015-01 -42 -66 -17 -29
2015-02 -37 -61 -15 -27
2015-03 -34 -59 -13 -27
2015-04 -35 -57 -12 -24
2015-05 -34 -58 -13 -27
2015-06 -35 -58 -12 -27
2015-07 -36 -59 -12 -29
2015-08 -33 -57 -12 -29
2015-09 -28 -52 -6 -26
2015-10 -30 -54 -10 -24
2015-11 -31 -54 -10 -24
2015-12 -30 -54 -7 -25
2016-01 -27 -55 -9 -24
2016-02 -32 -56 -10 -24
2016-03 -35 -57 -12 -24
2016-04 -37 -57 -13 -25
2016-05 -28 -48 -10 -25
2016-06 -33 -54 -10 -23
2016-07 -33 -53 -10 -29
2016-08 -34 -54 -10 -22
2016-09 -29 -54 -9 -23
2016-10 -28 -53 -7 -23
2016-11 -25 -49 -7 -24
2016-12 -22 -51 -8 -21
2017-01 -26 -47 -5 -22
2017-02 -23 -48 -5 -22
2017-03 -23 -48 -7 -20
2017-04 -22 -50 -9 -19
2017-05 -17 -45 -6 -19
2017-06 1 -40 -4 -14
2017-07 -11 -40 -11 -18
2017-08 -20 -40 -9 -17
2017-09 -21 -42 -11 -21
2017-10 -24 -40 -15 -21
2017-11 -18 -39 -10 -19
2017-12 -12 -31 -10 -16
2018-01 -18 -30 -12 -16
2018-02 -24 -35 -18 -23
2018-03 -24 -40 -12 -24
2018-04 -22 -35 -11 -26
2018-05 -28 -39 -14 -25
2018-06 -33 -46 -14 -27
2018-07 -32 -47 -12 -28
2018-08 -30 -47 -12 -30
2018-09 -36 -50 -17 -30
2018-10 -32 -53 -15 -29
2018-11 -44 -58 -18 -28
2018-12 -38 -65 -22 -32
2019-01 -31 -62 -14 -29
2019-02 -29 -56 -12 -26
2019-03 -29 -53 -10 -26
2019-04 -29 -53 -8 -25
2019-05 -25 -51 -5 -23
2019-06 -23 -43 -6 -22
2019-07 -24 -41 -5 -21
2019-08 -22 -43 -5 -18
2019-09 -22 -40 -2 -18
2019-10 -23 -38 -4 -18
2019-11 -21 -35 -2 -17
2019-12 -28 -39 -7 -19
2020-01 -29 -39 -3 -16

Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE.

CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances (Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted )
Avg. (1) Oct 19 Nov 19 Dec 19 Jan 20
Synthetic index (2) 100 104 105 102 104
Financial sit., past 12 m. -21 -18 -17 -19 -16
Financial sit., next 12 m. -6 -4 -2 -7 -3
Current saving capacity 9 13 13 13 13
Expected saving capacity -9 -1 0 -3 -1
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 17 11 10 9 7
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. -14 -6 -4 -7 -6
Standard of living, past 12 m. -45 -38 -35 -39 -39
Standard of living, next 12 m. -25 -23 -21 -28 -29
Unemployment, next 12 m. 33 3 2 8 8
Consumer prices, past 12 m. -17 -27 -32 -34 -34
Consumer prices, next 12 m. -33 -23 -25 -25 -26
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2019
  • (2) The indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987–2019).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Economic situation in France

Future standard of living in France: slight decline

In January, households’ opinion balance about the future standard of living in France has lost one point: it stands below its long-term average.

The share of households considering that the past standard of living in France has improved during the last twelve months has been stable. The corresponding balance stands above its average.

Unemployment: fears have stabilized

Households' fears about the unemployment trend have been stable in January, after rising in December (+6  points). The corresponding balance remains well below its long-term average.

Households' unemployment expectations

Balance, SA
Households' unemployment expectations (Balance, SA)
Households' unemployment expectations
2010-01 55
2010-02 49
2010-03 58
2010-04 57
2010-05 58
2010-06 65
2010-07 59
2010-08 46
2010-09 31
2010-10 35
2010-11 35
2010-12 34
2011-01 37
2011-02 41
2011-03 33
2011-04 35
2011-05 27
2011-06 29
2011-07 37
2011-08 51
2011-09 57
2011-10 49
2011-11 61
2011-12 59
2012-01 57
2012-02 56
2012-03 52
2012-04 55
2012-05 43
2012-06 53
2012-07 65
2012-08 73
2012-09 73
2012-10 73
2012-11 70
2012-12 74
2013-01 72
2013-02 73
2013-03 77
2013-04 74
2013-05 78
2013-06 78
2013-07 61
2013-08 56
2013-09 51
2013-10 38
2013-11 62
2013-12 48
2014-01 55
2014-02 55
2014-03 55
2014-04 57
2014-05 61
2014-06 67
2014-07 67
2014-08 62
2014-09 67
2014-10 52
2014-11 66
2014-12 65
2015-01 66
2015-02 58
2015-03 43
2015-04 61
2015-05 62
2015-06 60
2015-07 58
2015-08 50
2015-09 45
2015-10 47
2015-11 36
2015-12 45
2016-01 36
2016-02 44
2016-03 39
2016-04 51
2016-05 25
2016-06 26
2016-07 28
2016-08 33
2016-09 29
2016-10 30
2016-11 28
2016-12 18
2017-01 18
2017-02 19
2017-03 20
2017-04 15
2017-05 22
2017-06 6
2017-07 9
2017-08 -1
2017-09 16
2017-10 12
2017-11 5
2017-12 6
2018-01 0
2018-02 5
2018-03 4
2018-04 4
2018-05 4
2018-06 16
2018-07 14
2018-08 24
2018-09 23
2018-10 7
2018-11 30
2018-12 29
2019-01 31
2019-02 12
2019-03 21
2019-04 25
2019-05 14
2019-06 14
2019-07 12
2019-08 7
2019-09 2
2019-10 3
2019-11 2
2019-12 8
2020-01 8

Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE.

Perceived and expected inflation: virtual stability

In January, households’ opinion balance on past prices has been stable and remains below its long-term average.

Households considering that prices will be on the rise during the next twelve months have been slightly less numerous than the previous month: the corresponding balance has lost one point but remains above its average.

Households' perception of prices

Balance, SA
Households' perception of prices (Balance, SA)
Past prices Future prices
2010-01 -14 -41
2010-02 -19 -41
2010-03 -19 -39
2010-04 -10 -34
2010-05 -11 -28
2010-06 -10 -29
2010-07 -6 -27
2010-08 -4 -24
2010-09 -2 -29
2010-10 0 -25
2010-11 3 -25
2010-12 9 -22
2011-01 18 -19
2011-02 25 -9
2011-03 30 6
2011-04 46 0
2011-05 40 -13
2011-06 33 -14
2011-07 32 -18
2011-08 27 -18
2011-09 25 -20
2011-10 22 -23
2011-11 20 -15
2011-12 19 -16
2012-01 21 -17
2012-02 23 -11
2012-03 22 -21
2012-04 27 -20
2012-05 12 -32
2012-06 12 -34
2012-07 -2 -25
2012-08 -1 -16
2012-09 3 -13
2012-10 -1 -15
2012-11 -4 -14
2012-12 -7 -19
2013-01 -8 -19
2013-02 -10 -22
2013-03 -10 -14
2013-04 -13 -20
2013-05 -16 -17
2013-06 -11 -19
2013-07 -8 -17
2013-08 -3 -21
2013-09 4 -24
2013-10 -8 -21
2013-11 -8 -23
2013-12 -8 -17
2014-01 -14 -16
2014-02 -19 -22
2014-03 -23 -28
2014-04 -24 -29
2014-05 -23 -26
2014-06 -28 -31
2014-07 -31 -31
2014-08 -35 -36
2014-09 -40 -33
2014-10 -38 -28
2014-11 -38 -37
2014-12 -46 -43
2015-01 -50 -46
2015-02 -51 -45
2015-03 -53 -47
2015-04 -51 -43
2015-05 -56 -40
2015-06 -54 -38
2015-07 -52 -37
2015-08 -50 -36
2015-09 -53 -41
2015-10 -50 -41
2015-11 -50 -41
2015-12 -51 -39
2016-01 -52 -42
2016-02 -56 -39
2016-03 -58 -37
2016-04 -58 -37
2016-05 -53 -38
2016-06 -53 -35
2016-07 -51 -36
2016-08 -51 -35
2016-09 -46 -34
2016-10 -52 -38
2016-11 -52 -39
2016-12 -47 -29
2017-01 -43 -24
2017-02 -46 -31
2017-03 -47 -25
2017-04 -51 -27
2017-05 -56 -33
2017-06 -56 -40
2017-07 -53 -31
2017-08 -54 -32
2017-09 -54 -30
2017-10 -50 -24
2017-11 -45 -28
2017-12 -46 -35
2018-01 -40 -16
2018-02 -34 -20
2018-03 -39 -23
2018-04 -40 -25
2018-05 -31 -17
2018-06 -27 -19
2018-07 -25 -20
2018-08 -25 -21
2018-09 -15 -16
2018-10 -14 -16
2018-11 -9 -13
2018-12 -9 -24
2019-01 -31 -41
2019-02 -27 -18
2019-03 -20 -22
2019-04 -20 -21
2019-05 -20 -21
2019-06 -20 -21
2019-07 -26 -22
2019-08 -26 -21
2019-09 -27 -25
2019-10 -27 -23
2019-11 -32 -25
2019-12 -34 -25
2020-01 -34 -26

Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE.

For more information

Definition – The synthetic households’ confidence index summarizes households’ opinion on the economic situation: the higher its value, the more favorable households’ judgment of the economic situation is. It is calculated using a factor analysis technique, which enables to summarize concomitant movements of highly correlated variables. The index describes here the common factor of 8 balances of opinion: past and future general economic situation in France, past and future personal financial situation, unemployment, major purchases intentions, current savings capacity and expected savings capacity.

Calculation method – Around 2,000 households are surveyed by telephone, during the first three weeks of each month. Answers to this survey were collected between 2 and January 20 2020. For each question, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentages of positive and negative answers. Since the level of these balances is not open to direct interpretation, comments are based on their changes and their distance to their long–term average. Seasonal coefficients are calculated again every month, hence the slight revision of the seasonal adjusted balances history at each publication.

Next publication: February 26 2020 at 8:45 am

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