22 January 2020
N° 2020-11

In January 2020, the business climate in the manufacturing industry has returned to its long-term averageMonthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - January 2020

According to the business managers surveyed in January 2020, the business climate in industry has gained two points, up to 100, its long term average.

Informations rapides
No 11
Paru le : Paru le 22/01/2020
Prochaine parution le : 27/08/2020 at 08:45 - August 2020
Informations rapides  No 11 - January 2020

According to the business managers surveyed in January 2020, the business climate in industry has gained two points, up to 100, its long term average.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
1998-01 112.7
1998-02 113.3
1998-03 117.2
1998-04 115.2
1998-05 114.9
1998-06 115.2
1998-07 113.9
1998-08 112.9
1998-09 112.0
1998-10 106.8
1998-11 104.0
1998-12 102.2
1999-01 101.6
1999-02 101.9
1999-03 96.7
1999-04 98.2
1999-05 100.6
1999-06 99.5
1999-07 105.9
1999-08 109.1
1999-09 111.9
1999-10 113.4
1999-11 116.6
1999-12 114.4
2000-01 115.7
2000-02 117.7
2000-03 120.0
2000-04 119.9
2000-05 121.4
2000-06 124.3
2000-07 121.4
2000-08 121.5
2000-09 121.3
2000-10 120.1
2000-11 118.2
2000-12 114.2
2001-01 113.0
2001-02 113.1
2001-03 111.6
2001-04 107.3
2001-05 105.7
2001-06 104.1
2001-07 101.5
2001-08 98.6
2001-09 95.3
2001-10 94.8
2001-11 90.8
2001-12 92.2
2002-01 93.3
2002-02 95.0
2002-03 96.9
2002-04 98.4
2002-05 102.1
2002-06 100.3
2002-07 97.3
2002-08 97.9
2002-09 98.8
2002-10 95.6
2002-11 96.3
2002-12 100.9
2003-01 97.6
2003-02 97.3
2003-03 92.7
2003-04 91.7
2003-05 91.4
2003-06 89.8
2003-07 92.5
2003-08 92.3
2003-09 92.6
2003-10 95.5
2003-11 99.9
2003-12 100.5
2004-01 100.2
2004-02 100.3
2004-03 103.6
2004-04 103.3
2004-05 104.7
2004-06 105.3
2004-07 105.1
2004-08 105.2
2004-09 105.2
2004-10 105.0
2004-11 103.1
2004-12 103.2
2005-01 103.2
2005-02 103.0
2005-03 99.6
2005-04 96.4
2005-05 96.9
2005-06 98.9
2005-07 100.1
2005-08 99.5
2005-09 98.9
2005-10 101.0
2005-11 100.9
2005-12 104.0
2006-01 103.0
2006-02 106.6
2006-03 106.4
2006-04 107.9
2006-05 108.8
2006-06 108.6
2006-07 108.9
2006-08 108.5
2006-09 108.0
2006-10 107.2
2006-11 109.7
2006-12 109.3
2007-01 108.2
2007-02 111.8
2007-03 111.3
2007-04 112.0
2007-05 110.1
2007-06 111.2
2007-07 111.5
2007-08 111.0
2007-09 110.6
2007-10 110.0
2007-11 112.3
2007-12 112.5
2008-01 110.5
2008-02 110.4
2008-03 110.0
2008-04 107.4
2008-05 104.1
2008-06 103.4
2008-07 98.7
2008-08 97.9
2008-09 91.4
2008-10 86.8
2008-11 79.5
2008-12 72.9
2009-01 72.1
2009-02 68.0
2009-03 66.0
2009-04 70.1
2009-05 71.8
2009-06 74.5
2009-07 76.0
2009-08 80.6
2009-09 83.7
2009-10 84.9
2009-11 87.4
2009-12 87.3
2010-01 90.0
2010-02 88.5
2010-03 90.9
2010-04 95.0
2010-05 96.5
2010-06 95.6
2010-07 97.1
2010-08 100.4
2010-09 102.9
2010-10 104.1
2010-11 101.7
2010-12 104.2
2011-01 108.8
2011-02 106.9
2011-03 110.2
2011-04 110.1
2011-05 107.2
2011-06 110.0
2011-07 104.8
2011-08 101.2
2011-09 99.1
2011-10 97.3
2011-11 97.4
2011-12 94.5
2012-01 94.8
2012-02 94.8
2012-03 96.3
2012-04 95.5
2012-05 94.7
2012-06 92.9
2012-07 90.9
2012-08 92.8
2012-09 92.5
2012-10 86.9
2012-11 91.5
2012-12 90.7
2013-01 89.6
2013-02 90.3
2013-03 90.4
2013-04 87.5
2013-05 91.9
2013-06 92.6
2013-07 94.6
2013-08 98.5
2013-09 95.8
2013-10 97.8
2013-11 98.0
2013-12 99.2
2014-01 99.5
2014-02 98.2
2014-03 100.8
2014-04 100.2
2014-05 98.2
2014-06 96.5
2014-07 96.2
2014-08 96.6
2014-09 96.8
2014-10 97.4
2014-11 98.8
2014-12 98.6
2015-01 98.7
2015-02 98.4
2015-03 98.9
2015-04 101.5
2015-05 101.8
2015-06 100.2
2015-07 101.5
2015-08 103.6
2015-09 104.7
2015-10 103.1
2015-11 102.2
2015-12 102.4
2016-01 102.6
2016-02 103.0
2016-03 102.5
2016-04 104.7
2016-05 104.4
2016-06 101.4
2016-07 101.6
2016-08 101.6
2016-09 103.3
2016-10 102.0
2016-11 102.0
2016-12 105.5
2017-01 105.8
2017-02 106.7
2017-03 105.6
2017-04 108.7
2017-05 108.9
2017-06 108.9
2017-07 108.1
2017-08 110.3
2017-09 110.8
2017-10 111.0
2017-11 111.5
2017-12 111.5
2018-01 113.5
2018-02 112.5
2018-03 110.6
2018-04 110.7
2018-05 110.0
2018-06 109.6
2018-07 108.6
2018-08 109.1
2018-09 107.1
2018-10 104.1
2018-11 104.9
2018-12 102.9
2019-01 103.0
2019-02 103.3
2019-03 103.6
2019-04 101.6
2019-05 103.9
2019-06 101.7
2019-07 101.4
2019-08 102.6
2019-09 101.7
2019-10 99.4
2019-11 101.5
2019-12 98.4
2020-01 100.0

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Ave.* Oct. 19 Nov. 19 Dec. 19 Jan. 20
Manufacturing industry
Composite indicator 100 99 102 98 100
Past activity 5 3 6 -1 0
Finished-goods inventory 13 10 18 15 7
Overall order books -18 -15 -9 -18 -16
Export order books -14 -19 -14 -16 -15
Past workforce size -9 -1 -1 -2 -1
Expected workforce size -11 -2 -1 0 0
Personal production expectations 5 2 3 4 6
General production expectations -8 -1 -2 -5 -5
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Industrialists’ opinion on their order books has improved

In January 2020, the industrialists’ balance of opinion on their overall and foreign order books has recovered slightly, after their deterioration in December. The balance of opinion on the overall order books has exceeded its long term average, whereas the one on foreign order books has stayed slightly below.

The balance of opinion on past production is practically stable, largely below its long-term average. The balance of opinion on personal production prospects has incresaed again a little and has moved just above its average. The one on general production prospects is stable above its long-term average.

The balance of opinion regarding finished-good inventories has declined again, much more markedly than in December. It has approached its lower point since September 2018, well below its long-term average.

Considering employment, the balance of opinion on past variation has increased very slightly and the one on expected variation is stable. Both indicators stand above their long-term average.

The turning point indicator has moved to the area indicating a favourable economic outlook.

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.2
2010-02 -0.53
2010-03 -0.05
2010-04 0.25
2010-05 0.23
2010-06 0.1
2010-07 0.13
2010-08 0.58
2010-09 0.87
2010-10 0.92
2010-11 -0.39
2010-12 0.72
2011-01 0.96
2011-02 0.75
2011-03 0.82
2011-04 0.68
2011-05 0.44
2011-06 0.61
2011-07 -0.62
2011-08 -0.97
2011-09 -0.97
2011-10 -0.84
2011-11 -0.62
2011-12 -0.86
2012-01 -0.91
2012-02 -0.68
2012-03 0.07
2012-04 -0.23
2012-05 -0.24
2012-06 -0.9
2012-07 -0.88
2012-08 0.35
2012-09 0.26
2012-10 -0.77
2012-11 0.51
2012-12 0.13
2013-01 0.03
2013-02 -0.03
2013-03 -0.23
2013-04 -0.91
2013-05 0.0
2013-06 0.56
2013-07 0.87
2013-08 0.95
2013-09 0.83
2013-10 0.79
2013-11 0.26
2013-12 0.88
2014-01 0.95
2014-02 0.74
2014-03 0.95
2014-04 0.78
2014-05 0.62
2014-06 0.37
2014-07 0.46
2014-08 0.43
2014-09 0.58
2014-10 0.41
2014-11 0.78
2014-12 0.66
2015-01 0.6
2015-02 0.52
2015-03 0.81
2015-04 0.79
2015-05 0.6
2015-06 0.57
2015-07 0.84
2015-08 0.94
2015-09 0.82
2015-10 0.09
2015-11 0.03
2015-12 0.2
2016-01 0.7
2016-02 0.6
2016-03 0.56
2016-04 0.61
2016-05 0.43
2016-06 -0.09
2016-07 -0.03
2016-08 0.0
2016-09 0.28
2016-10 0.26
2016-11 0.34
2016-12 0.76
2017-01 0.65
2017-02 0.72
2017-03 -0.54
2017-04 0.23
2017-05 0.36
2017-06 0.36
2017-07 0.47
2017-08 0.53
2017-09 0.84
2017-10 0.81
2017-11 0.71
2017-12 0.83
2018-01 0.97
2018-02 0.79
2018-03 0.05
2018-04 0.42
2018-05 -0.17
2018-06 -0.01
2018-07 -0.11
2018-08 0.13
2018-09 0.14
2018-10 0.06
2018-11 0.27
2018-12 -0.3
2019-01 0.37
2019-02 0.48
2019-03 0.5
2019-04 -0.1
2019-05 0.79
2019-06 0.14
2019-07 0.27
2019-08 0.73
2019-09 0.65
2019-10 -0.14
2019-11 0.59
2019-12 0.28
2020-01 0.75

Turning-point indicator

  • How to read it: close to 1, the indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (-1 is unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between −0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

The business climate has weakened slightly in the agrofood industry

The business climate in the agrofood industry has slightly worsened (–1 point), after the rebound in the previous month. At 106, it stays well above its long-term average. This slight deterioration is mainly explained by the decline in the balance of opinion on overall order books and on personal production prospects.

The business climate has improved in the equipment goods industry

In the manufacture of equipment goods, the business climate has gained two points in December, principaly because of the increase of the balance on foreign order books. Up to 99, the composite indicator has moved closer to its long-term average.

In Januray, the composite indicator has gained two points in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, after three consecutive months of decline. At 107, it stands well above its long-term average. The business indcator has improved slightly in the manufacture of electrical equipments (97) and more markedly in the manufacture of machinery and equipments (96). In both subsectors, the composite indicator stays below its long-term average.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has recovered slightly

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has gained one point in January. At 100, it has reached its long-term average.

In the automotive industry, the business climate has gained three points (93). This rebound is explained principaly by the decrease in the balance on finished-good inventories, and the increases of the balances on past production and on personal production prospects. The composite indicator stays nevertheless significantly below its long-term average.

In the manufacture of other transport equipments, the business climate has worsened slightly, due to the balance of opinion on foreign order books. At 105, it stands nevertheless sharply above its long-term average.

The business climate has slightly improved in « other manufacturing»

In the overall « other manufacturing » industry, the business climate has recovered slightly. At 98, the indicator stays below its long-term average.

The business climate has improved in almost all activities. The increase first concerns the « other manufacturing industries » where the indicator has gained five points, to 106. This rebound is principaly explained by the increase in the balance on overall order books. The climates in the clothing-textiles industry and the rubber and plastic industry have increased both by two points to respectively 108 and 96. The business climate is virtually stable in chemicals and chemical products (97) and stays unchanged well below its long-term average in the manufacture of basics metals and metal products (93). Finally, the business climate has deteriorated in the wood-paper-printing industry where it has reached its lower point since July 2019.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2011-01 109.3 105.1 105.0 105.1
2011-02 107.5 103.1 99.4 108.2
2011-03 106.6 107.5 106.0 109.6
2011-04 108.8 105.5 105.6 109.8
2011-05 109.5 104.1 105.0 107.5
2011-06 108.6 105.2 109.3 108.7
2011-07 111.0 103.2 103.7 104.8
2011-08 103.4 101.1 101.6 100.2
2011-09 101.8 100.0 98.6 97.9
2011-10 104.2 98.6 100.0 96.1
2011-11 102.2 96.2 102.0 93.9
2011-12 98.0 96.6 99.9 94.3
2012-01 99.7 96.4 94.7 93.9
2012-02 100.3 96.3 93.4 95.7
2012-03 102.0 96.9 102.7 97.0
2012-04 99.0 96.4 93.7 97.7
2012-05 93.5 95.0 94.6 95.7
2012-06 94.7 91.3 95.4 93.4
2012-07 94.7 91.0 94.8 92.1
2012-08 93.6 90.5 94.9 93.3
2012-09 96.6 91.3 96.8 93.4
2012-10 91.1 86.1 95.3 89.1
2012-11 98.3 87.4 92.5 92.0
2012-12 98.8 87.9 92.0 91.6
2013-01 97.6 87.9 92.1 91.0
2013-02 98.0 88.9 94.0 90.0
2013-03 94.0 89.2 93.5 91.0
2013-04 91.8 90.0 92.6 89.0
2013-05 91.6 89.9 94.6 91.6
2013-06 92.6 89.4 94.5 93.0
2013-07 92.2 90.0 98.5 94.8
2013-08 95.3 92.1 101.2 97.0
2013-09 94.9 90.4 97.3 97.0
2013-10 95.4 90.8 103.5 97.6
2013-11 98.1 93.1 101.8 98.5
2013-12 98.6 92.2 99.8 99.0
2014-01 99.5 91.7 102.3 98.4
2014-02 99.1 94.3 97.8 98.1
2014-03 99.8 93.1 100.5 102.2
2014-04 95.7 92.8 102.6 99.9
2014-05 97.9 94.1 98.1 99.2
2014-06 95.9 92.2 97.9 98.4
2014-07 97.0 89.7 99.0 98.8
2014-08 95.2 93.8 97.6 100.4
2014-09 94.3 92.5 100.6 96.9
2014-10 95.6 92.9 97.0 98.3
2014-11 96.2 92.5 99.9 99.6
2014-12 99.0 92.5 99.5 99.9
2015-01 103.1 93.9 101.5 99.4
2015-02 99.4 95.5 100.9 100.0
2015-03 100.7 94.5 105.1 99.8
2015-04 104.4 97.0 106.9 100.4
2015-05 102.2 97.6 104.8 101.3
2015-06 105.1 97.6 105.0 100.7
2015-07 108.7 98.8 104.7 102.7
2015-08 103.4 97.9 107.7 101.4
2015-09 105.4 96.6 108.9 102.4
2015-10 104.2 98.7 107.7 99.6
2015-11 102.2 100.1 107.6 99.2
2015-12 99.7 98.5 107.6 101.4
2016-01 101.7 101.1 107.9 99.1
2016-02 100.1 101.1 108.9 99.7
2016-03 101.7 99.7 105.8 100.8
2016-04 105.5 100.7 109.1 101.0
2016-05 103.4 98.0 105.9 103.7
2016-06 103.2 97.7 105.7 101.3
2016-07 104.5 98.2 105.0 101.5
2016-08 99.4 98.6 103.8 101.3
2016-09 108.5 98.9 105.0 100.3
2016-10 106.5 97.9 105.6 100.9
2016-11 107.6 100.2 102.2 101.1
2016-12 108.2 104.0 104.3 104.4
2017-01 104.0 103.0 106.6 105.1
2017-02 105.5 104.4 106.3 106.1
2017-03 104.5 105.4 105.4 104.6
2017-04 103.7 107.7 105.9 107.7
2017-05 106.1 109.4 105.4 107.2
2017-06 111.8 108.9 105.0 108.4
2017-07 108.8 109.5 108.2 106.7
2017-08 109.0 107.2 108.5 108.4
2017-09 106.8 107.8 109.2 108.4
2017-10 111.1 110.0 108.4 110.1
2017-11 112.1 110.1 109.1 110.9
2017-12 110.7 111.6 110.1 110.2
2018-01 111.2 113.2 112.0 110.6
2018-02 110.2 111.3 112.1 110.0
2018-03 109.5 110.6 111.4 109.2
2018-04 109.6 110.7 112.6 107.7
2018-05 108.1 111.6 108.1 107.8
2018-06 110.0 108.4 109.8 105.6
2018-07 108.0 108.7 105.9 106.6
2018-08 108.1 108.5 106.5 105.8
2018-09 106.7 107.7 104.9 104.7
2018-10 102.4 107.2 103.5 102.4
2018-11 108.6 102.2 103.9 102.4
2018-12 107.3 102.5 102.0 101.8
2019-01 107.5 103.8 102.2 101.6
2019-02 108.7 105.1 100.4 101.1
2019-03 107.6 101.2 102.6 101.4
2019-04 107.1 101.8 101.0 100.9
2019-05 111.9 104.3 102.3 102.3
2019-06 108.1 99.2 100.4 100.7
2019-07 104.4 103.4 98.9 100.6
2019-08 108.7 100.1 101.3 101.8
2019-09 107.9 99.8 100.9 101.4
2019-10 105.5 96.7 100.4 98.5
2019-11 102.7 98.0 105.4 100.4
2019-12 107.4 97.5 98.8 97.3
2020-01 105.9 99.2 99.8 98.3

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Weights** (%) Nov. 19 Dec. 19 Jan. 20
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 21 103 107 106
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 98 97 99
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 109 105 107
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 96 96 97
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 93 94 96
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 18 105 99 100
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 8 96 90 93
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 110 106 105
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 100 97 98
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 112 106 108
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 105 102 101
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 98 96 97
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 99 94 96
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 93 93 93
[CM] Other manufacturing industries 10 107 101 106
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Revisions

The business climate of December 2019 has been revised downward by four points. This revision, more important than usual, concerns particularly to the manufacture of transport equipment. It is explained by the late responses of some companies and by the entries and exits from the sample because of occasional non-response of some other companies.

For further information

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue: 25 February 2020 at 8:45

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue: 25 February 2020 at 8:45


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