Informations rapides
21 November 2019
2019- n° 298
In November 2019, the business climate is pratically stable in the manufacturing industry Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - November 2019

According to the business managers surveyed in November 2019, the business climate in industry is pratically stable compared to October. The composite indicator stands at 100, its long term average level.

Informations rapides
No 298
Paru le :Paru le21/11/2019
Prochaine parution le : 25/04/2025 at 08:45 - April 2025
Warnings

In November, the platform on which companies answer business surveys has been unavailable for a few days. Therefore, the results for November might be revised than usually for the December publication, which will take into account the answers delivered late.

ERRATUM: in the section ‘The balances of opinion on foreign order books have improved’, the text in the second paragraph was amended on 22/11 at 10:30 am.

According to the business managers surveyed in November 2019, the business climate in industry is pratically stable compared to October. The composite indicator stands at 100, its long term average level.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
1998-01 112.6
1998-02 113.3
1998-03 117.1
1998-04 115.2
1998-05 114.9
1998-06 115.2
1998-07 113.9
1998-08 112.9
1998-09 112.0
1998-10 106.8
1998-11 104.0
1998-12 102.2
1999-01 101.6
1999-02 101.9
1999-03 96.7
1999-04 98.3
1999-05 100.6
1999-06 99.5
1999-07 105.9
1999-08 109.0
1999-09 111.9
1999-10 113.3
1999-11 116.6
1999-12 114.4
2000-01 115.7
2000-02 117.7
2000-03 119.9
2000-04 119.9
2000-05 121.4
2000-06 124.3
2000-07 121.4
2000-08 121.5
2000-09 121.2
2000-10 120.0
2000-11 118.1
2000-12 114.2
2001-01 113.0
2001-02 113.0
2001-03 111.6
2001-04 107.3
2001-05 105.7
2001-06 104.1
2001-07 101.5
2001-08 98.6
2001-09 95.3
2001-10 94.9
2001-11 90.8
2001-12 92.3
2002-01 93.3
2002-02 95.0
2002-03 96.9
2002-04 98.4
2002-05 102.1
2002-06 100.3
2002-07 97.3
2002-08 98.0
2002-09 98.8
2002-10 95.6
2002-11 96.3
2002-12 100.9
2003-01 97.6
2003-02 97.3
2003-03 92.7
2003-04 91.7
2003-05 91.5
2003-06 89.8
2003-07 92.5
2003-08 92.3
2003-09 92.6
2003-10 95.5
2003-11 99.9
2003-12 100.5
2004-01 100.2
2004-02 100.3
2004-03 103.5
2004-04 103.3
2004-05 104.6
2004-06 105.3
2004-07 105.1
2004-08 105.2
2004-09 105.2
2004-10 105.0
2004-11 103.1
2004-12 103.2
2005-01 103.2
2005-02 103.0
2005-03 99.6
2005-04 96.4
2005-05 97.0
2005-06 98.9
2005-07 100.1
2005-08 99.5
2005-09 98.9
2005-10 101.0
2005-11 100.9
2005-12 104.0
2006-01 103.0
2006-02 106.5
2006-03 106.4
2006-04 107.9
2006-05 108.8
2006-06 108.6
2006-07 108.9
2006-08 108.5
2006-09 108.0
2006-10 107.2
2006-11 109.7
2006-12 109.2
2007-01 108.2
2007-02 111.8
2007-03 111.3
2007-04 112.0
2007-05 110.0
2007-06 111.2
2007-07 111.5
2007-08 110.9
2007-09 110.6
2007-10 109.9
2007-11 112.3
2007-12 112.5
2008-01 110.5
2008-02 110.3
2008-03 109.9
2008-04 107.4
2008-05 104.1
2008-06 103.4
2008-07 98.7
2008-08 97.9
2008-09 91.4
2008-10 86.9
2008-11 79.5
2008-12 73.0
2009-01 72.1
2009-02 68.0
2009-03 66.1
2009-04 70.1
2009-05 71.9
2009-06 74.6
2009-07 76.0
2009-08 80.6
2009-09 83.7
2009-10 84.9
2009-11 87.4
2009-12 87.3
2010-01 90.0
2010-02 88.5
2010-03 90.9
2010-04 95.0
2010-05 96.5
2010-06 95.6
2010-07 97.1
2010-08 100.4
2010-09 102.9
2010-10 104.1
2010-11 101.7
2010-12 104.2
2011-01 108.8
2011-02 106.9
2011-03 110.2
2011-04 110.1
2011-05 107.2
2011-06 109.9
2011-07 104.8
2011-08 101.2
2011-09 99.1
2011-10 97.3
2011-11 97.4
2011-12 94.5
2012-01 94.8
2012-02 94.8
2012-03 96.3
2012-04 95.5
2012-05 94.7
2012-06 92.9
2012-07 90.9
2012-08 92.8
2012-09 92.5
2012-10 86.9
2012-11 91.5
2012-12 90.7
2013-01 89.6
2013-02 90.4
2013-03 90.4
2013-04 87.5
2013-05 91.9
2013-06 92.6
2013-07 94.6
2013-08 98.5
2013-09 95.8
2013-10 97.8
2013-11 98.0
2013-12 99.2
2014-01 99.5
2014-02 98.2
2014-03 100.8
2014-04 100.2
2014-05 98.3
2014-06 96.5
2014-07 96.2
2014-08 96.6
2014-09 96.8
2014-10 97.4
2014-11 98.8
2014-12 98.6
2015-01 98.7
2015-02 98.4
2015-03 98.9
2015-04 101.5
2015-05 101.8
2015-06 100.2
2015-07 101.5
2015-08 103.6
2015-09 104.7
2015-10 103.1
2015-11 102.2
2015-12 102.4
2016-01 102.6
2016-02 103.0
2016-03 102.5
2016-04 104.7
2016-05 104.4
2016-06 101.4
2016-07 101.6
2016-08 101.6
2016-09 103.3
2016-10 102.0
2016-11 102.0
2016-12 105.5
2017-01 105.8
2017-02 106.7
2017-03 105.6
2017-04 108.7
2017-05 108.9
2017-06 108.9
2017-07 108.1
2017-08 110.3
2017-09 110.8
2017-10 111.0
2017-11 111.4
2017-12 111.4
2018-01 113.5
2018-02 112.5
2018-03 110.6
2018-04 110.7
2018-05 110.0
2018-06 109.6
2018-07 108.6
2018-08 109.1
2018-09 107.1
2018-10 104.1
2018-11 104.9
2018-12 102.9
2019-01 103.0
2019-02 103.3
2019-03 103.6
2019-04 101.6
2019-05 103.9
2019-06 101.7
2019-07 101.4
2019-08 102.6
2019-09 101.7
2019-10 99.4
2019-11 99.7

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Ave.* Aug. 19 sept.-19 oct.-19 nov.-19
Manufacturing industry
Composite indicator 100 103 102 99 100
Past activity 5 5 3 3 2
Finished-goods inventory 12 13 16 10 13
Overall order books -18 -13 -11 -15 -14
Export order books -14 -10 -10 -19 -15
Past workforce size -9 0 3 -1 -1
Expected workforce size -11 -1 2 -2 -1
Personal production expectations 5 9 4 2 1
General production expectations -8 2 3 -1 -3
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

The balances of opinion on foreign order books have improved

In November 2019, the industrialists balance of opinion on overall order books has recovered very slightly and thus stays above its long-term average. The balance of opinion on foreign order books has bounced back more vigorously, after having fallen back sharply in October. It has almost reached its long-term average.

The balance of opinion on past production has declined sligthly in November, as well as the balance on personal production prospects, that has reached its lowest since August 2014. Both indicators stand below their long-term average. The balance on general production prospects has worsened again.

The balance opinion regarding finished-good inventories has recovered in November, after a marked decline in October. It has returned slightly above its long-term average.

Considering employment, the balance of opinion on the past variation is steady and the one on prospects has improved very slightly. Both indicators stay above their long-term average.

The turning point indicator has moved down to the area indicating an unfavourable economic outlook.

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.2
2010-02 -0.53
2010-03 -0.05
2010-04 0.25
2010-05 0.23
2010-06 0.1
2010-07 0.13
2010-08 0.58
2010-09 0.87
2010-10 0.92
2010-11 -0.39
2010-12 0.72
2011-01 0.96
2011-02 0.75
2011-03 0.82
2011-04 0.68
2011-05 0.44
2011-06 0.61
2011-07 -0.62
2011-08 -0.97
2011-09 -0.97
2011-10 -0.84
2011-11 -0.62
2011-12 -0.86
2012-01 -0.91
2012-02 -0.68
2012-03 0.07
2012-04 -0.23
2012-05 -0.24
2012-06 -0.9
2012-07 -0.88
2012-08 0.35
2012-09 0.26
2012-10 -0.77
2012-11 0.51
2012-12 0.13
2013-01 0.03
2013-02 -0.03
2013-03 -0.23
2013-04 -0.91
2013-05 0.0
2013-06 0.56
2013-07 0.87
2013-08 0.95
2013-09 0.83
2013-10 0.79
2013-11 0.26
2013-12 0.88
2014-01 0.95
2014-02 0.74
2014-03 0.95
2014-04 0.78
2014-05 0.62
2014-06 0.37
2014-07 0.46
2014-08 0.43
2014-09 0.58
2014-10 0.58
2014-11 0.85
2014-12 0.72
2015-01 0.65
2015-02 0.55
2015-03 0.83
2015-04 0.8
2015-05 0.61
2015-06 0.57
2015-07 0.84
2015-08 0.94
2015-09 0.82
2015-10 0.09
2015-11 0.03
2015-12 0.2
2016-01 0.7
2016-02 0.6
2016-03 0.56
2016-04 0.61
2016-05 0.43
2016-06 -0.09
2016-07 -0.03
2016-08 0.0
2016-09 0.28
2016-10 0.26
2016-11 0.34
2016-12 0.76
2017-01 0.65
2017-02 0.72
2017-03 -0.54
2017-04 0.23
2017-05 0.36
2017-06 0.36
2017-07 0.47
2017-08 0.53
2017-09 0.84
2017-10 0.81
2017-11 0.71
2017-12 0.83
2018-01 0.97
2018-02 0.79
2018-03 0.05
2018-04 0.42
2018-05 -0.17
2018-06 -0.01
2018-07 -0.11
2018-08 0.13
2018-09 0.14
2018-10 0.06
2018-11 0.27
2018-12 -0.3
2019-01 0.37
2019-02 0.48
2019-03 0.5
2019-04 -0.1
2019-05 0.79
2019-06 0.14
2019-07 0.27
2019-08 0.73
2019-09 0.65
2019-10 -0.14
2019-11 -0.63

Turning-point indicator

  • How to read it: close to 1, the indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (-1 is unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between −0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

The business climate has deteriorated again in the agrofood industry

The business climate in the agrofood industry has deteriorated for the third month consecutively: it has lost four points in November and has thus fallen to its lowest level since August 2016. At 102, it stands however above its long-term average. This deterioration is mainly explained by the decline in the balance on past production. Nevertheless, the balance of opinion on foreign order books has improved.

The business climate has slightly improved in the equipment goods industry

In the manufacture of equipment goods, the business climate has recovered in November, after the deterioration of October. At 99, it stands however just below its long-term average.

The improvement of the indicator is shared by all subsectors. The manufacture of electrical equipments shows the most pronounced increase: the indicator has gained four points (97), and has returned to its September level. Moreover, the business climate continues to be favourable in the manufacture of computer, electronic and opitcal products: after a slight decline in October, the indicator has gained three points in November and stands at 112, significantly above its long-term average. In the manufacture of machinery and equipments, the business climate has slightly improved (93), albeit staying well below its long-term average.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has slightly recovered

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has gained one point in November and has returned to its September level (101), slightly above its long-term average.

The business climate has slightly improved in the automotive industry. At 96, it is getting gradually closer to its long-term average, due to the rise in the balance of opinion on foreign order books. However, the balance on personal production prospects has continued to decline and has fallen to its lowest level since January 2013.

In the manufacture of other transport equipments, the business climate has very sligthly dipped and has stayed above its long-term average (104), the decline in the balance on foreign order books weighing slightly on the business climate in November.

The business climate has recovered to its average level in « other industries »

In the overall « other manufacturing » industry, the busines climate has recovered by two points to stand to its average long-term level (100).

The business climate has improved mainly in clothing-textiles and wood-paper-printing, where it has gained respectively four and three points. Those rises are mainly explained by the improvement of the balances of opinion on the overall order books in the two branches. The increase of the synthetic indicator is less pronounced in chemicals (two points). The business climate has deteriorated again in rubber and plastic industry and, at 98, has deviated further from its long-term average. Finally, the business climate is steady in basics metals (92), and in « other manufacturing industries » (107).

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2011-01 109.3 105.1 105.0 105.1
2011-02 107.5 103.1 99.4 108.2
2011-03 106.6 107.4 106.0 109.6
2011-04 108.8 105.5 105.6 109.8
2011-05 109.5 104.0 105.0 107.5
2011-06 108.6 105.2 109.3 108.7
2011-07 111.0 103.2 103.7 104.7
2011-08 103.5 101.1 101.6 100.2
2011-09 101.9 100.0 98.6 97.9
2011-10 104.3 98.6 100.0 96.1
2011-11 102.2 96.2 102.0 93.9
2011-12 98.1 96.6 99.9 94.3
2012-01 99.8 96.4 94.7 93.9
2012-02 100.4 96.3 93.4 95.7
2012-03 102.1 96.9 102.7 97.0
2012-04 99.0 96.4 93.7 97.7
2012-05 93.6 95.0 94.6 95.7
2012-06 94.8 91.3 95.4 93.4
2012-07 94.8 91.0 94.8 92.1
2012-08 93.7 90.6 94.9 93.3
2012-09 96.6 91.3 96.8 93.4
2012-10 91.1 86.1 95.4 89.1
2012-11 98.3 87.4 92.5 92.1
2012-12 98.8 87.9 92.0 91.6
2013-01 97.7 88.0 92.1 91.0
2013-02 98.1 89.0 94.0 90.0
2013-03 94.1 89.2 93.5 91.0
2013-04 91.8 90.0 92.6 89.0
2013-05 91.7 89.9 94.6 91.6
2013-06 92.6 89.4 94.5 93.1
2013-07 92.2 90.0 98.5 94.8
2013-08 95.3 92.1 101.2 97.0
2013-09 94.9 90.5 97.4 97.0
2013-10 95.5 90.8 103.5 97.6
2013-11 98.2 93.1 101.8 98.5
2013-12 98.6 92.2 99.8 99.0
2014-01 99.5 91.7 102.3 98.4
2014-02 99.2 94.3 97.8 98.1
2014-03 99.8 93.1 100.5 102.2
2014-04 95.8 92.8 102.6 99.9
2014-05 97.9 94.1 98.1 99.2
2014-06 96.0 92.2 97.9 98.4
2014-07 97.0 89.7 99.1 98.8
2014-08 95.3 93.8 97.6 100.3
2014-09 94.4 92.5 100.6 96.9
2014-10 95.7 92.9 97.1 98.3
2014-11 96.3 92.5 99.9 99.6
2014-12 99.1 92.5 99.5 99.9
2015-01 103.2 93.9 101.5 99.4
2015-02 99.4 95.5 100.9 100.0
2015-03 100.8 94.5 105.1 99.8
2015-04 104.5 97.0 106.9 100.4
2015-05 102.3 97.5 104.8 101.3
2015-06 105.2 97.6 105.0 100.7
2015-07 108.7 98.8 104.7 102.6
2015-08 103.4 97.9 107.7 101.4
2015-09 105.4 96.6 108.9 102.4
2015-10 104.3 98.7 107.6 99.6
2015-11 102.2 100.1 107.6 99.2
2015-12 99.8 98.5 107.6 101.4
2016-01 101.7 101.1 107.9 99.1
2016-02 100.2 101.1 108.8 99.7
2016-03 101.7 99.7 105.7 100.8
2016-04 105.5 100.7 109.1 101.0
2016-05 103.5 98.0 105.9 103.7
2016-06 103.2 97.7 105.7 101.3
2016-07 104.5 98.2 105.0 101.5
2016-08 99.4 98.6 103.8 101.3
2016-09 108.5 98.9 105.0 100.3
2016-10 106.5 97.9 105.6 100.9
2016-11 107.6 100.2 102.2 101.1
2016-12 108.2 104.0 104.3 104.4
2017-01 104.0 103.0 106.5 105.0
2017-02 105.6 104.4 106.2 106.1
2017-03 104.6 105.3 105.4 104.6
2017-04 103.7 107.7 105.9 107.7
2017-05 106.1 109.3 105.4 107.1
2017-06 111.8 108.9 105.0 108.4
2017-07 108.8 109.5 108.2 106.7
2017-08 109.0 107.2 108.5 108.3
2017-09 106.8 107.7 109.2 108.4
2017-10 111.1 110.0 108.4 110.0
2017-11 112.2 110.1 109.1 110.8
2017-12 110.7 111.6 110.1 110.2
2018-01 111.2 113.2 112.0 110.6
2018-02 110.2 111.2 112.1 110.0
2018-03 109.5 110.6 111.4 109.2
2018-04 109.6 110.7 112.6 107.7
2018-05 108.1 111.6 108.1 107.7
2018-06 110.0 108.4 109.7 105.6
2018-07 108.0 108.7 105.9 106.6
2018-08 108.2 108.4 106.5 105.8
2018-09 106.8 107.7 104.9 104.7
2018-10 102.4 107.2 103.5 102.4
2018-11 108.7 102.2 103.9 102.4
2018-12 107.3 102.5 102.0 101.8
2019-01 107.5 103.8 102.2 101.6
2019-02 108.7 105.0 100.4 101.1
2019-03 107.6 101.1 102.6 101.3
2019-04 107.1 101.7 101.0 100.8
2019-05 111.9 104.3 102.3 102.2
2019-06 108.1 99.2 100.4 100.7
2019-07 104.4 103.4 98.9 100.6
2019-08 108.7 100.1 101.3 101.8
2019-09 107.9 99.8 100.9 101.4
2019-10 105.6 96.7 100.4 98.5
2019-11 101.7 98.8 100.9 99.5

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Weights** (%) sept.-19 oct.-19 nov.-19
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 21 108 106 102
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 100 97 99
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 110 109 112
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 97 94 97
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 96 92 93
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 18 101 100 101
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 8 92 95 96
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 109 105 104
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 101 98 100
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 109 109 113
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 104 102 105
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 100 94 96
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 103 100 98
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 94 92 92
[CM] Other manufacturing industries 10 108 107 107
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

For further information

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue: 19 December 2019 at 8:45

Pour en savoir plus

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue: 19 December 2019 at 8:45

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