21 November 2019

2019- n° 298

In November 2019, the business climate is pratically stable in the manufacturing industry Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - November 2019

According to the business managers surveyed in November 2019, the business climate in industry is pratically stable compared to October. The composite indicator stands at 100, its long term average level.

In November 2019, the industrialists balance of opinion on overall order books has recovered very slightly and thus stays above its long-term average. The balance of opinion on foreign order books has bounced back more vigorously, after having fallen back sharply in October. It has almost reached its long-term average.

The balance of opinion on past production has declined sligthly in November, as well as the balance on personal production prospects, that has reached its lowest since August 2014. Both indicators stand below their long-term average. The balance on general production prospects has worsened again.

The balance opinion regarding finished-good inventories has recovered in November, after a marked decline in October. It has returned slightly above its long-term average.

Considering employment, the balance of opinion on the past variation is steady and the one on prospects has improved very slightly. Both indicators stay above their long-term average.

The turning point indicator has moved down to the area indicating an unfavourable economic outlook.

The business climate in the agrofood industry has deteriorated for the third month consecutively: it has lost four points in November and has thus fallen to its lowest level since August 2016. At 102, it stands however above its long-term average. This deterioration is mainly explained by the decline in the balance on past production. Nevertheless, the balance of opinion on foreign order books has improved.

In the manufacture of equipment goods, the business climate has recovered in November, after the deterioration of October. At 99, it stands however just below its long-term average.

The improvement of the indicator is shared by all subsectors. The manufacture of electrical equipments shows the most pronounced increase: the indicator has gained four points (97), and has returned to its September level. Moreover, the business climate continues to be favourable in the manufacture of computer, electronic and opitcal products: after a slight decline in October, the indicator has gained three points in November and stands at 112, significantly above its long-term average. In the manufacture of machinery and equipments, the business climate has slightly improved (93), albeit staying well below its long-term average.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has gained one point in November and has returned to its September level (101), slightly above its long-term average.

The business climate has slightly improved in the automotive industry. At 96, it is getting gradually closer to its long-term average, due to the rise in the balance of opinion on foreign order books. However, the balance on personal production prospects has continued to decline and has fallen to its lowest level since January 2013.

In the manufacture of other transport equipments, the business climate has very sligthly dipped and has stayed above its long-term average (104), the decline in the balance on foreign order books weighing slightly on the business climate in November.

In the overall « other manufacturing » industry, the busines climate has recovered by two points to stand to its average long-term level (100).

The business climate has improved mainly in clothing-textiles and wood-paper-printing, where it has gained respectively four and three points. Those rises are mainly explained by the improvement of the balances of opinion on the overall order books in the two branches. The increase of the synthetic indicator is less pronounced in chemicals (two points). The business climate has deteriorated again in rubber and plastic industry and, at 98, has deviated further from its long-term average. Finally, the business climate is steady in basics metals (92), and in « other manufacturing industries » (107).