23 October 2019
2019- n° 271In October 2019, pressure on production equipment have again eased a little in the
manufacturing industry Quarterly business survey (goods-producing industries) - October 2019
In October 2019, the balance of industrialists' opinion on recent overall demand trend has picked up slightly, that on recent foreign demand more markedly. The balance on overall demand has come closer to its long-term average and that on foreign demand has reached its average. On the other hand, industrialists are more pessimistic regarding demand over the next three months. The related balances have decreased again and stand below their long term average, especially regarding foreign demand.
The sample of surveyed businesses has been renewed in July 2019. However, to avoid structural effects, the quarterly balances are systematically calculated on the same set of businesses from one quarter to the next: businesses entering the sample are taken into account only as from October to compute the quarterly indicators. As a result, the set of results previously published from this survey is subject to larger revisions than usual.
Demand expectations have lowered again
In October 2019, the balance of industrialists' opinion on recent overall demand trend has picked up slightly, that on recent foreign demand more markedly. The balance on overall demand has come closer to its long-term average and that on foreign demand has reached its average. On the other hand, industrialists are more pessimistic regarding demand over the next three months. The related balances have decreased again and stand below their long term average, especially regarding foreign demand.
tableauOpinion on global demand
| Past change | Expected change | |
|---|---|---|
| 1998-Q1 | 26.6 | 14.4 |
| 1998-Q2 | 18.6 | 12.4 |
| 1998-Q3 | 18.0 | 11.9 |
| 1998-Q4 | 11.9 | 0.3 |
| 1999-Q1 | 4.5 | -1.3 |
| 1999-Q2 | -1.7 | 2.4 |
| 1999-Q3 | 13.2 | 11.9 |
| 1999-Q4 | 23.8 | 21.9 |
| 2000-Q1 | 30.3 | 15.1 |
| 2000-Q2 | 32.7 | 18.1 |
| 2000-Q3 | 28.6 | 20.4 |
| 2000-Q4 | 33.2 | 22.7 |
| 2001-Q1 | 11.9 | 15.3 |
| 2001-Q2 | 9.1 | 2.8 |
| 2001-Q3 | -0.4 | 1.1 |
| 2001-Q4 | -12.1 | -13.3 |
| 2002-Q1 | -23.8 | -4.6 |
| 2002-Q2 | -10.4 | 5.4 |
| 2002-Q3 | -8.0 | -1.8 |
| 2002-Q4 | -19.2 | -6.6 |
| 2003-Q1 | -6.3 | -1.6 |
| 2003-Q2 | -22.0 | -10.8 |
| 2003-Q3 | -19.8 | -7.8 |
| 2003-Q4 | -9.1 | 1.4 |
| 2004-Q1 | 0.1 | 7.5 |
| 2004-Q2 | 10.0 | 9.1 |
| 2004-Q3 | 12.8 | 10.1 |
| 2004-Q4 | 8.5 | 14.4 |
| 2005-Q1 | 16.9 | 6.3 |
| 2005-Q2 | -3.6 | 1.3 |
| 2005-Q3 | 2.0 | 5.5 |
| 2005-Q4 | 2.5 | 10.0 |
| 2006-Q1 | 14.8 | 7.4 |
| 2006-Q2 | 16.4 | 12.9 |
| 2006-Q3 | 13.1 | 9.4 |
| 2006-Q4 | 15.9 | 13.7 |
| 2007-Q1 | 13.2 | 10.6 |
| 2007-Q2 | 17.4 | 10.3 |
| 2007-Q3 | 23.1 | 14.6 |
| 2007-Q4 | 17.7 | 16.0 |
| 2008-Q1 | 16.5 | 13.8 |
| 2008-Q2 | 14.7 | 9.0 |
| 2008-Q3 | -8.3 | -13.1 |
| 2008-Q4 | -21.7 | -24.3 |
| 2009-Q1 | -42.2 | -36.4 |
| 2009-Q2 | -53.1 | -27.7 |
| 2009-Q3 | -23.4 | -11.8 |
| 2009-Q4 | -12.0 | -1.8 |
| 2010-Q1 | 9.4 | -0.1 |
| 2010-Q2 | 6.3 | 2.1 |
| 2010-Q3 | 18.3 | 1.3 |
| 2010-Q4 | 17.3 | 10.9 |
| 2011-Q1 | 25.0 | 10.1 |
| 2011-Q2 | 20.8 | 8.6 |
| 2011-Q3 | 14.5 | 6.3 |
| 2011-Q4 | 0.7 | -4.1 |
| 2012-Q1 | -4.4 | -7.4 |
| 2012-Q2 | -2.7 | 3.4 |
| 2012-Q3 | -16.0 | -9.5 |
| 2012-Q4 | -16.8 | -7.5 |
| 2013-Q1 | -15.5 | -8.2 |
| 2013-Q2 | -24.2 | -4.3 |
| 2013-Q3 | -10.5 | -5.1 |
| 2013-Q4 | -2.1 | 1.6 |
| 2014-Q1 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| 2014-Q2 | 6.2 | 6.4 |
| 2014-Q3 | -5.7 | 3.6 |
| 2014-Q4 | -2.1 | 3.4 |
| 2015-Q1 | -3.8 | 0.7 |
| 2015-Q2 | 4.1 | 6.5 |
| 2015-Q3 | 1.2 | 5.1 |
| 2015-Q4 | 5.4 | 6.8 |
| 2016-Q1 | 2.0 | 3.9 |
| 2016-Q2 | 12.9 | 7.7 |
| 2016-Q3 | 11.7 | 4.8 |
| 2016-Q4 | 4.5 | 7.4 |
| 2017-Q1 | 11.5 | 7.3 |
| 2017-Q2 | 10.4 | 8.9 |
| 2017-Q3 | 16.2 | 11.1 |
| 2017-Q4 | 18.8 | 17.1 |
| 2018-Q1 | 21.1 | 16.2 |
| 2018-Q2 | 17.6 | 13.8 |
| 2018-Q3 | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| 2018-Q4 | -0.8 | 7.0 |
| 2019-Q1 | 1.7 | 11.1 |
| 2019-Q2 | 2.7 | 4.0 |
| 2019-Q3 | -1.6 | 2.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | -1.1 | 0.8 |
graphiqueOpinion on global demand
- Source: INSEE.
Machinery and equipment are used slightly less intensively again
In October 2019, the production capacity utilisation rate has continued its gradual decline that started a year ago. It has lost 0.5 points between July and October and stand at 83.2%, slightly above its long-term average (83.0%).
Slightly less industrialists than in the previous quarter consider that they could not produce more if they received more orders: after a one-time rise in July, production bottlenecks have eased again in October and affect one third of businesses. A quarter of businesses have indicated difficulties of supply exclusively. That share is stable as compared to July and stand above its average. The share of industrialists reporting difficulties of demand exclusively (28%) is also stable this quarter, well below its average.
tableauProduction capacity utilisation rate
| Production capacity utilisation rate | |
|---|---|
| 1998-Q1 | 83.0 |
| 1998-Q2 | 83.3 |
| 1998-Q3 | 84.6 |
| 1998-Q4 | 83.3 |
| 1999-Q1 | 84.0 |
| 1999-Q2 | 83.0 |
| 1999-Q3 | 83.5 |
| 1999-Q4 | 84.3 |
| 2000-Q1 | 83.8 |
| 2000-Q2 | 85.0 |
| 2000-Q3 | 85.5 |
| 2000-Q4 | 86.1 |
| 2001-Q1 | 86.2 |
| 2001-Q2 | 85.8 |
| 2001-Q3 | 84.9 |
| 2001-Q4 | 84.2 |
| 2002-Q1 | 84.1 |
| 2002-Q2 | 85.0 |
| 2002-Q3 | 84.1 |
| 2002-Q4 | 83.3 |
| 2003-Q1 | 83.4 |
| 2003-Q2 | 82.7 |
| 2003-Q3 | 82.6 |
| 2003-Q4 | 82.2 |
| 2004-Q1 | 82.7 |
| 2004-Q2 | 82.6 |
| 2004-Q3 | 82.8 |
| 2004-Q4 | 82.9 |
| 2005-Q1 | 82.7 |
| 2005-Q2 | 82.6 |
| 2005-Q3 | 82.8 |
| 2005-Q4 | 82.4 |
| 2006-Q1 | 83.4 |
| 2006-Q2 | 84.2 |
| 2006-Q3 | 85.1 |
| 2006-Q4 | 85.6 |
| 2007-Q1 | 84.8 |
| 2007-Q2 | 85.9 |
| 2007-Q3 | 85.9 |
| 2007-Q4 | 86.7 |
| 2008-Q1 | 86.4 |
| 2008-Q2 | 85.5 |
| 2008-Q3 | 84.9 |
| 2008-Q4 | 83.2 |
| 2009-Q1 | 75.4 |
| 2009-Q2 | 72.2 |
| 2009-Q3 | 73.3 |
| 2009-Q4 | 75.4 |
| 2010-Q1 | 75.2 |
| 2010-Q2 | 77.5 |
| 2010-Q3 | 77.9 |
| 2010-Q4 | 79.5 |
| 2011-Q1 | 80.7 |
| 2011-Q2 | 82.6 |
| 2011-Q3 | 82.5 |
| 2011-Q4 | 82.6 |
| 2012-Q1 | 81.3 |
| 2012-Q2 | 81.4 |
| 2012-Q3 | 80.5 |
| 2012-Q4 | 80.4 |
| 2013-Q1 | 80.9 |
| 2013-Q2 | 80.4 |
| 2013-Q3 | 80.2 |
| 2013-Q4 | 80.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | 80.7 |
| 2014-Q2 | 80.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | 81.9 |
| 2014-Q4 | 80.8 |
| 2015-Q1 | 80.8 |
| 2015-Q2 | 82.3 |
| 2015-Q3 | 82.0 |
| 2015-Q4 | 82.3 |
| 2016-Q1 | 81.0 |
| 2016-Q2 | 82.3 |
| 2016-Q3 | 83.5 |
| 2016-Q4 | 83.0 |
| 2017-Q1 | 84.0 |
| 2017-Q2 | 83.8 |
| 2017-Q3 | 84.6 |
| 2017-Q4 | 84.6 |
| 2018-Q1 | 85.9 |
| 2018-Q2 | 85.3 |
| 2018-Q3 | 85.4 |
| 2018-Q4 | 85.1 |
| 2019-Q1 | 84.9 |
| 2019-Q2 | 84.6 |
| 2019-Q3 | 83.7 |
| 2019-Q4 | 83.2 |
graphiqueProduction capacity utilisation rate
- Source: INSEE.
tableauIndustrialists’ opinion : demand and production factors
| Manufacturing industry | Mean | Jan. 19 | Apr. 19 | Jul. 19 | Oct. 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall demand | |||||
| Past change | 0 | 2 | 3 | -2 | -1 |
| Expected change | 2 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Foreign demand | |||||
| Past change | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 |
| Expected change | 4 | 12 | 3 | 1 | -1 |
| Production factors | |||||
| Production bottlenecks (in %) | 23 | 34 | 32 | 35 | 33 |
| Assessment of productive capacity | 13 | -1 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| Production capacity utilisation rate (in %) | 83.0 | 84.9 | 84.6 | 83.7 | 83.2 |
| Difficulties of supply and demand (in %) | |||||
| Difficulties of supply and demand | 8 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 8 |
| Difficulties of supply only | 20 | 30 | 27 | 25 | 25 |
| Difficulties of demand only | 43 | 27 | 29 | 28 | 28 |
- * : Long-term average since 1976, expect for supply and demand (since 1991).
- The results of the latest survey are preliminary
- Sources : Insee – Quarterly business survey in industry
Hiring difficulties remain high
In October 2019, slightly more industrialists than in July 2019 have reported an increase in their workforce size rather than a decrease in the last three months, as well as expected in the next three months. Both corresponding balances stand significantly above their long-term average.
Half of industrialists have reported experiencing hiring difficulties this month, almost as much as in July 2019, when that share had reached its highest level since July 2001.
tableauOpinion on workforce size in the manufacturing industry
| Expected change | Past change | |
|---|---|---|
| 1998-01 | -6.5 | -1.5 |
| 1998-02 | NaN | NaN |
| 1998-03 | NaN | NaN |
| 1998-04 | -6.1 | 1.9 |
| 1998-05 | NaN | NaN |
| 1998-06 | NaN | NaN |
| 1998-07 | -5.3 | 1.0 |
| 1998-08 | NaN | NaN |
| 1998-09 | NaN | NaN |
| 1998-10 | -6.6 | -1.7 |
| 1998-11 | NaN | NaN |
| 1998-12 | NaN | NaN |
| 1999-01 | -7.2 | -4.4 |
| 1999-02 | NaN | NaN |
| 1999-03 | NaN | NaN |
| 1999-04 | -8.7 | -7.5 |
| 1999-05 | NaN | NaN |
| 1999-06 | NaN | NaN |
| 1999-07 | -5.6 | -6.7 |
| 1999-08 | NaN | NaN |
| 1999-09 | NaN | NaN |
| 1999-10 | 1.6 | 7.1 |
| 1999-11 | NaN | NaN |
| 1999-12 | NaN | NaN |
| 2000-01 | 7.1 | 5.9 |
| 2000-02 | NaN | NaN |
| 2000-03 | NaN | NaN |
| 2000-04 | 6.1 | 6.4 |
| 2000-05 | NaN | NaN |
| 2000-06 | NaN | NaN |
| 2000-07 | 10.8 | 13.8 |
| 2000-08 | NaN | NaN |
| 2000-09 | NaN | NaN |
| 2000-10 | 13.0 | 15.6 |
| 2000-11 | NaN | NaN |
| 2000-12 | NaN | NaN |
| 2001-01 | 9.9 | 17.6 |
| 2001-02 | NaN | NaN |
| 2001-03 | NaN | NaN |
| 2001-04 | 6.2 | 9.6 |
| 2001-05 | NaN | NaN |
| 2001-06 | NaN | NaN |
| 2001-07 | 0.5 | 6.8 |
| 2001-08 | NaN | NaN |
| 2001-09 | NaN | NaN |
| 2001-10 | -10.4 | 0.0 |
| 2001-11 | NaN | NaN |
| 2001-12 | NaN | NaN |
| 2002-01 | -11.9 | -8.6 |
| 2002-02 | NaN | NaN |
| 2002-03 | NaN | NaN |
| 2002-04 | -8.1 | -9.0 |
| 2002-05 | NaN | NaN |
| 2002-06 | NaN | NaN |
| 2002-07 | -7.1 | -9.6 |
| 2002-08 | NaN | NaN |
| 2002-09 | NaN | NaN |
| 2002-10 | -13.4 | -12.7 |
| 2002-11 | NaN | NaN |
| 2002-12 | NaN | NaN |
| 2003-01 | -10.0 | -15.3 |
| 2003-02 | -17.9 | -16.4 |
| 2003-03 | -17.7 | -14.3 |
| 2003-04 | -18.1 | -13.5 |
| 2003-05 | -17.8 | -17.7 |
| 2003-06 | -23.2 | -15.8 |
| 2003-07 | -21.5 | -18.1 |
| 2003-08 | -21.5 | -17.0 |
| 2003-09 | -21.7 | -16.2 |
| 2003-10 | -20.1 | -19.1 |
| 2003-11 | -21.0 | -18.9 |
| 2003-12 | -21.4 | -18.5 |
| 2004-01 | -16.7 | -17.1 |
| 2004-02 | -18.1 | -15.6 |
| 2004-03 | -14.3 | -15.4 |
| 2004-04 | -12.7 | -13.9 |
| 2004-05 | -11.1 | -13.9 |
| 2004-06 | -12.8 | -13.6 |
| 2004-07 | -12.6 | -12.5 |
| 2004-08 | -12.0 | -11.7 |
| 2004-09 | -11.8 | -10.9 |
| 2004-10 | -11.7 | -10.1 |
| 2004-11 | -15.7 | -9.0 |
| 2004-12 | -16.1 | -12.3 |
| 2005-01 | -15.3 | -10.7 |
| 2005-02 | -15.8 | -12.2 |
| 2005-03 | -13.0 | -12.7 |
| 2005-04 | -16.9 | -15.4 |
| 2005-05 | -16.8 | -13.2 |
| 2005-06 | -15.0 | -12.3 |
| 2005-07 | -12.4 | -12.7 |
| 2005-08 | -12.2 | -12.4 |
| 2005-09 | -12.7 | -12.1 |
| 2005-10 | -14.2 | -10.2 |
| 2005-11 | -11.4 | -9.6 |
| 2005-12 | -12.1 | -9.5 |
| 2006-01 | -12.4 | -9.5 |
| 2006-02 | -9.5 | -9.5 |
| 2006-03 | -8.7 | -7.5 |
| 2006-04 | -8.1 | -7.6 |
| 2006-05 | -7.7 | -5.8 |
| 2006-06 | -7.5 | -3.4 |
| 2006-07 | -5.8 | -2.9 |
| 2006-08 | -5.6 | -3.0 |
| 2006-09 | -6.7 | -3.1 |
| 2006-10 | -6.0 | -0.7 |
| 2006-11 | -5.6 | -4.4 |
| 2006-12 | -4.5 | -4.4 |
| 2007-01 | -3.0 | -4.9 |
| 2007-02 | -3.3 | -1.1 |
| 2007-03 | -3.8 | -0.5 |
| 2007-04 | -2.1 | 1.9 |
| 2007-05 | -1.7 | 2.4 |
| 2007-06 | -1.7 | 2.2 |
| 2007-07 | -3.4 | 0.6 |
| 2007-08 | -0.9 | 1.0 |
| 2007-09 | -0.5 | 1.2 |
| 2007-10 | 2.0 | 2.9 |
| 2007-11 | 2.4 | 3.6 |
| 2007-12 | 2.3 | 4.4 |
| 2008-01 | 1.8 | 5.3 |
| 2008-02 | 1.1 | 2.9 |
| 2008-03 | -0.1 | 5.4 |
| 2008-04 | 0.0 | 3.5 |
| 2008-05 | -4.8 | -0.4 |
| 2008-06 | -6.4 | -2.2 |
| 2008-07 | -9.0 | -3.4 |
| 2008-08 | -12.6 | -5.3 |
| 2008-09 | -15.2 | -7.1 |
| 2008-10 | -18.2 | -8.1 |
| 2008-11 | -29.2 | -19.0 |
| 2008-12 | -37.2 | -23.7 |
| 2009-01 | -35.1 | -25.4 |
| 2009-02 | -38.3 | -31.2 |
| 2009-03 | -40.8 | -33.5 |
| 2009-04 | -37.7 | -34.5 |
| 2009-05 | -35.5 | -38.2 |
| 2009-06 | -35.5 | -38.5 |
| 2009-07 | -30.1 | -38.2 |
| 2009-08 | -28.4 | -31.9 |
| 2009-09 | -27.7 | -33.6 |
| 2009-10 | -25.4 | -31.0 |
| 2009-11 | -22.5 | -26.5 |
| 2009-12 | -21.7 | -25.1 |
| 2010-01 | -18.7 | -23.8 |
| 2010-02 | -18.0 | -21.1 |
| 2010-03 | -17.4 | -19.7 |
| 2010-04 | -15.9 | -18.6 |
| 2010-05 | -12.2 | -12.8 |
| 2010-06 | -10.2 | -10.0 |
| 2010-07 | -9.2 | -9.5 |
| 2010-08 | -9.2 | -7.5 |
| 2010-09 | -2.9 | -6.5 |
| 2010-10 | -3.1 | -3.6 |
| 2010-11 | -1.4 | 0.3 |
| 2010-12 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 2011-01 | 1.4 | -0.6 |
| 2011-02 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| 2011-03 | 5.0 | 6.6 |
| 2011-04 | 2.0 | 6.8 |
| 2011-05 | 4.3 | 8.4 |
| 2011-06 | 7.3 | 11.6 |
| 2011-07 | 4.0 | 9.2 |
| 2011-08 | -2.1 | 5.7 |
| 2011-09 | -3.8 | -0.2 |
| 2011-10 | -7.2 | 2.0 |
| 2011-11 | -8.1 | 0.0 |
| 2011-12 | -12.7 | -0.6 |
| 2012-01 | -7.6 | -2.3 |
| 2012-02 | -9.9 | -5.5 |
| 2012-03 | -7.2 | -2.7 |
| 2012-04 | -7.6 | -3.4 |
| 2012-05 | -10.9 | -4.5 |
| 2012-06 | -12.6 | -6.5 |
| 2012-07 | -12.1 | -6.5 |
| 2012-08 | -15.4 | -9.7 |
| 2012-09 | -20.3 | -14.2 |
| 2012-10 | -16.9 | -10.5 |
| 2012-11 | -20.0 | -16.6 |
| 2012-12 | -18.9 | -16.2 |
| 2013-01 | -13.6 | -11.8 |
| 2013-02 | -18.2 | -15.3 |
| 2013-03 | -20.7 | -16.5 |
| 2013-04 | -15.2 | -12.2 |
| 2013-05 | -19.2 | -15.7 |
| 2013-06 | -20.9 | -17.5 |
| 2013-07 | -16.1 | -13.5 |
| 2013-08 | -16.5 | -15.1 |
| 2013-09 | -15.6 | -12.6 |
| 2013-10 | -12.0 | -12.2 |
| 2013-11 | -13.8 | -12.7 |
| 2013-12 | -11.4 | -9.6 |
| 2014-01 | -12.1 | -10.1 |
| 2014-02 | -13.1 | -11.2 |
| 2014-03 | -12.1 | -10.7 |
| 2014-04 | -11.7 | -9.4 |
| 2014-05 | -11.4 | -8.1 |
| 2014-06 | -12.2 | -9.4 |
| 2014-07 | -10.3 | -5.7 |
| 2014-08 | -12.7 | -9.5 |
| 2014-09 | -13.6 | -9.4 |
| 2014-10 | -12.6 | -10.1 |
| 2014-11 | -13.5 | -10.9 |
| 2014-12 | -12.8 | -13.0 |
| 2015-01 | -12.9 | -11.5 |
| 2015-02 | -11.4 | -11.9 |
| 2015-03 | -10.5 | -9.8 |
| 2015-04 | -9.8 | -8.2 |
| 2015-05 | -10.5 | -8.1 |
| 2015-06 | -8.9 | -9.0 |
| 2015-07 | -9.6 | -8.1 |
| 2015-08 | -8.9 | -7.0 |
| 2015-09 | -6.7 | -7.8 |
| 2015-10 | -8.6 | -7.7 |
| 2015-11 | -4.6 | -6.1 |
| 2015-12 | -6.9 | -8.7 |
| 2016-01 | -6.1 | -7.2 |
| 2016-02 | -7.6 | -7.4 |
| 2016-03 | -6.2 | -5.8 |
| 2016-04 | -7.6 | -6.3 |
| 2016-05 | -6.2 | -4.4 |
| 2016-06 | -6.3 | -5.2 |
| 2016-07 | -7.1 | -6.5 |
| 2016-08 | -8.8 | -4.5 |
| 2016-09 | -4.9 | -7.2 |
| 2016-10 | -3.4 | -5.5 |
| 2016-11 | -3.3 | -3.4 |
| 2016-12 | -3.1 | -0.5 |
| 2017-01 | -5.6 | -4.0 |
| 2017-02 | -3.5 | -1.3 |
| 2017-03 | -2.0 | 0.5 |
| 2017-04 | -4.1 | -3.0 |
| 2017-05 | -2.4 | -1.2 |
| 2017-06 | -3.3 | -1.3 |
| 2017-07 | -1.5 | 0.2 |
| 2017-08 | -0.8 | -0.7 |
| 2017-09 | 0.0 | -1.5 |
| 2017-10 | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| 2017-11 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| 2017-12 | 1.6 | 5.7 |
| 2018-01 | 2.9 | 4.4 |
| 2018-02 | 4.6 | 4.0 |
| 2018-03 | 4.8 | 3.3 |
| 2018-04 | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| 2018-05 | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| 2018-06 | 3.8 | 3.1 |
| 2018-07 | 1.0 | 2.8 |
| 2018-08 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2018-09 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| 2018-10 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 2018-11 | -0.4 | -1.6 |
| 2018-12 | 4.2 | 1.3 |
| 2019-01 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| 2019-02 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| 2019-03 | 0.4 | 2.4 |
| 2019-04 | 1.9 | 6.2 |
| 2019-05 | 0.3 | 2.2 |
| 2019-06 | -1.2 | 1.1 |
| 2019-07 | -1.8 | 1.2 |
| 2019-08 | -0.7 | 0.5 |
| 2019-09 | 2.5 | 3.1 |
| 2019-10 | -0.1 | 1.8 |
graphiqueOpinion on workforce size in the manufacturing industry
- Source: INSEE.
Stabilisation in selling prices
According to industrialists, selling prices have been stable in Q3 2019 after a decrease in the previous quarter. Business managers foresee a near stability in Q4 2019.
The share of industrialists who have experienced cash-flow problems has been stable since the beginning of the year (11%). This share stands below its long-term mean (14%).
Competitive position and general export prospects are still considered rather dull
The balance of opinion of industrialists related to the recent change in their competitive position on the domestic market has very slightly declined. Regarding foreign markets, the balance of opinion is stable regarding competitive position on the EU market, and has picked up slightly regarding the foreign market outside the EU. The corresponding balances for the three markets remain below their long-term average. Industrialists have reported being more pessimistic on general export prospects. The corresponding balance has fallen again slightly and has reached its long-term average.
tableauIndustrialists’ opinion : employment, competitive position, cash-flow and selling prices
| Manufacturing industry | Mean | Jan. 19 | Apr. 19 | Jul. 19 | Oct. 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workforce size | |||||
| Past change | -11 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 2 |
| Expected change | -12 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| Hiring difficulties (in %) | 29 | 45 | 47 | 51 | 50 |
| Selling prices and cash-flow | |||||
| Past change in selling prices | 0.1 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0 |
| Expected change in selling prices | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Cash-flow problems (in %) | 14 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Competitive position | |||||
| On the domestic market | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | -1 |
| On foreign markets inside EU | -1 | 3 | 2 | -6 | -6 |
| On foreign markets outside EU | -2 | -6 | -3 | -6 | -4 |
| General exportation expectations | -8 | -12 | -5 | -7 | -8 |
- * : Long-term average since 1991, except for workforce change (since 1976) and for competitive position by market (since 1997).
- The results of the latest survey are preliminary
- A quantitative question is asked about selling prices.
- Source : Insee – Quarterly business survey in industry
tableauCompetitive position
| Foreign market (outside EU) (right scale) | Domestic market (left scale) | Foreign market (inside EU) (right scale) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-Q1 | 2.2 | -4.4 | -7.7 |
| 2009-Q2 | -12.3 | -5.2 | -10.8 |
| 2009-Q3 | -14.2 | -8.6 | -14.7 |
| 2009-Q4 | -11.0 | -2.7 | -10.5 |
| 2010-Q1 | -11.6 | -1.9 | -5.7 |
| 2010-Q2 | 2.7 | -0.5 | -3.1 |
| 2010-Q3 | 16.0 | 5.6 | 3.9 |
| 2010-Q4 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 6.0 |
| 2011-Q1 | -1.3 | -2.0 | -4.1 |
| 2011-Q2 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| 2011-Q3 | -2.7 | -1.0 | 1.2 |
| 2011-Q4 | 1.2 | -2.3 | -4.3 |
| 2012-Q1 | 4.5 | -9.0 | -12.5 |
| 2012-Q2 | 6.8 | -5.8 | -8.4 |
| 2012-Q3 | 4.3 | -1.4 | -0.9 |
| 2012-Q4 | -0.5 | -3.7 | -7.3 |
| 2013-Q1 | -1.4 | -2.9 | -9.2 |
| 2013-Q2 | -0.9 | -3.0 | -5.0 |
| 2013-Q3 | 0.2 | -4.2 | -6.6 |
| 2013-Q4 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -3.1 |
| 2014-Q1 | -6.0 | 0.7 | -4.2 |
| 2014-Q2 | -9.7 | -0.6 | -2.3 |
| 2014-Q3 | -7.3 | -2.4 | -2.4 |
| 2014-Q4 | -3.2 | -6.0 | -8.4 |
| 2015-Q1 | -1.2 | -0.8 | -4.7 |
| 2015-Q2 | 9.5 | -1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2015-Q3 | 1.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 2015-Q4 | -3.4 | -3.1 | -6.3 |
| 2016-Q1 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2016-Q2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 2016-Q3 | -0.9 | -0.1 | -1.3 |
| 2016-Q4 | -1.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2017-Q1 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 2017-Q2 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| 2017-Q3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 5.3 |
| 2017-Q4 | -0.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 |
| 2018-Q1 | 0.8 | 5.1 | 3.6 |
| 2018-Q2 | -3.8 | 7.6 | 6.1 |
| 2018-Q3 | -2.9 | 5.2 | 1.3 |
| 2018-Q4 | -5.5 | 3.3 | -4.1 |
| 2019-Q1 | -5.5 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| 2019-Q2 | -2.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 |
| 2019-Q3 | -6.0 | -0.5 | -6.1 |
| 2019-Q4 | -3.8 | -0.8 | -6.0 |
graphiqueCompetitive position
- Source: INSEE.
For further information
The quarterly questions complete the monthly survey published in the version dated 23 October 2019, especially as regards demand and production factors.
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab on this page.
Next issue: 22 January 2019 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,174 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The quarterly questions complete the monthly survey published in the version dated 23 October 2019, especially as regards demand and production factors.
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab on this page.
Next issue: 22 January 2019 at 8:45 am
Time series : Industry
