26 June 2019
N° 2019-166

In June 2019, households’ confidence has increased againMonthly consumer confidence survey - June 2019

In June 2019, households’ confidence in the economic situation has increased for the sixth consecutive month. The synthetic index has gained 2 points. At 101, it now stands above its long term average (100) for the first time since April 2018.

Informations rapides
No 166
Paru le : Paru le 26/06/2019
Prochaine parution le : 26/08/2020 at 08:45 - August 2020
Informations rapides  No 166 - June 2019

In June 2019, households’ confidence in the economic situation has increased for the sixth consecutive month. The synthetic index has gained 2 points. At 101, it now stands above its long term average (100) for the first time since April 2018.

Consumer confidence synthetic index

Consumer confidence synthetic index ()
Consumer confidence synthetic index
2000-01 118
2000-02 118
2000-03 119
2000-04 122
2000-05 122
2000-06 122
2000-07 123
2000-08 121
2000-09 118
2000-10 119
2000-11 119
2000-12 123
2001-01 126
2001-02 124
2001-03 122
2001-04 120
2001-05 116
2001-06 114
2001-07 114
2001-08 112
2001-09 110
2001-10 111
2001-11 112
2001-12 112
2002-01 112
2002-02 111
2002-03 111
2002-04 109
2002-05 112
2002-06 111
2002-07 109
2002-08 108
2002-09 106
2002-10 107
2002-11 108
2002-12 108
2003-01 104
2003-02 102
2003-03 98
2003-04 99
2003-05 101
2003-06 101
2003-07 100
2003-08 100
2003-09 99
2003-10 98
2003-11 98
2003-12 99
2004-01 99
2004-02 98
2004-03 99
2004-04 101
2004-05 100
2004-06 99
2004-07 99
2004-08 100
2004-09 102
2004-10 101
2004-11 100
2004-12 99
2005-01 97
2005-02 99
2005-03 97
2005-04 97
2005-05 95
2005-06 94
2005-07 94
2005-08 93
2005-09 92
2005-10 92
2005-11 92
2005-12 95
2006-01 97
2006-02 98
2006-03 97
2006-04 96
2006-05 95
2006-06 96
2006-07 98
2006-08 98
2006-09 99
2006-10 99
2006-11 99
2006-12 98
2007-01 99
2007-02 99
2007-03 101
2007-04 101
2007-05 108
2007-06 108
2007-07 107
2007-08 104
2007-09 101
2007-10 100
2007-11 94
2007-12 94
2008-01 90
2008-02 90
2008-03 89
2008-04 88
2008-05 85
2008-06 82
2008-07 81
2008-08 82
2008-09 84
2008-10 82
2008-11 83
2008-12 83
2009-01 84
2009-02 84
2009-03 84
2009-04 86
2009-05 86
2009-06 89
2009-07 89
2009-08 89
2009-09 90
2009-10 90
2009-11 93
2009-12 94
2010-01 94
2010-02 92
2010-03 91
2010-04 89
2010-05 88
2010-06 87
2010-07 87
2010-08 89
2010-09 90
2010-10 91
2010-11 93
2010-12 90
2011-01 89
2011-02 89
2011-03 87
2011-04 86
2011-05 87
2011-06 86
2011-07 89
2011-08 86
2011-09 84
2011-10 87
2011-11 84
2011-12 83
2012-01 84
2012-02 85
2012-03 89
2012-04 90
2012-05 92
2012-06 92
2012-07 89
2012-08 86
2012-09 85
2012-10 84
2012-11 84
2012-12 86
2013-01 85
2013-02 86
2013-03 83
2013-04 84
2013-05 80
2013-06 79
2013-07 83
2013-08 85
2013-09 86
2013-10 87
2013-11 84
2013-12 85
2014-01 86
2014-02 85
2014-03 88
2014-04 86
2014-05 85
2014-06 85
2014-07 87
2014-08 86
2014-09 86
2014-10 86
2014-11 87
2014-12 90
2015-01 90
2015-02 92
2015-03 94
2015-04 95
2015-05 93
2015-06 93
2015-07 93
2015-08 94
2015-09 97
2015-10 96
2015-11 96
2015-12 96
2016-01 97
2016-02 96
2016-03 95
2016-04 94
2016-05 98
2016-06 96
2016-07 95
2016-08 96
2016-09 97
2016-10 98
2016-11 99
2016-12 99
2017-01 100
2017-02 101
2017-03 101
2017-04 100
2017-05 102
2017-06 108
2017-07 104
2017-08 103
2017-09 101
2017-10 100
2017-11 103
2017-12 105
2018-01 105
2018-02 100
2018-03 100
2018-04 101
2018-05 99
2018-06 96
2018-07 97
2018-08 96
2018-09 94
2018-10 95
2018-11 92
2018-12 87
2019-01 92
2019-02 95
2019-03 96
2019-04 97
2019-05 99
2019-06 101

Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE.

Personal situation

Personal financial situation: virtually stable

In June, households’ opinion balance on their future personal situation has declined: it has lost1 point and now stands at its long term average. Households’ opinion balance regarding their past financial situation has remained unchanged. It remains slightly below its long term average.

In addition, the share of households considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases has increased again, for the sixth consecutive month. The corresponding balance has gained 1 point and remains just above its long term average.

Saving capacity:  improvement

In June, households’ opinion balance on their saving capacity has improved. Indeed, the expected saving capacity balance has gained 3 points while the current one has gained 1 point. Both balances stand above their long term average.

The share of households considering it is a suitable time to save has slightly declined: the corresponding balance has lost 1 point and remains below its long term average.

Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France ()
Standard of living, future Standard of living, past Financial situation, future Financial situation, past
2010-01 -32 -62 -9 -24
2010-02 -34 -67 -12 -27
2010-03 -40 -69 -13 -26
2010-04 -46 -69 -16 -27
2010-05 -52 -69 -19 -27
2010-06 -55 -71 -19 -27
2010-07 -49 -71 -19 -30
2010-08 -43 -66 -18 -29
2010-09 -42 -64 -18 -28
2010-10 -40 -64 -15 -28
2010-11 -38 -64 -11 -23
2010-12 -42 -68 -16 -26
2011-01 -44 -70 -18 -26
2011-02 -46 -67 -18 -27
2011-03 -51 -69 -23 -29
2011-04 -56 -71 -21 -31
2011-05 -49 -68 -20 -31
2011-06 -48 -68 -21 -33
2011-07 -42 -67 -18 -31
2011-08 -56 -71 -23 -30
2011-09 -55 -75 -24 -31
2011-10 -51 -73 -21 -29
2011-11 -59 -74 -25 -30
2011-12 -57 -74 -30 -32
2012-01 -54 -73 -27 -32
2012-02 -49 -73 -26 -32
2012-03 -40 -68 -19 -29
2012-04 -38 -66 -16 -29
2012-05 -30 -65 -16 -26
2012-06 -30 -68 -16 -27
2012-07 -43 -69 -19 -27
2012-08 -51 -72 -19 -29
2012-09 -57 -75 -21 -29
2012-10 -60 -73 -25 -29
2012-11 -55 -73 -25 -31
2012-12 -54 -69 -23 -29
2013-01 -58 -69 -25 -28
2013-02 -56 -71 -24 -27
2013-03 -61 -75 -26 -29
2013-04 -62 -76 -25 -28
2013-05 -63 -79 -26 -37
2013-06 -66 -80 -27 -35
2013-07 -57 -77 -24 -34
2013-08 -50 -73 -22 -33
2013-09 -46 -72 -20 -33
2013-10 -45 -69 -18 -35
2013-11 -53 -75 -19 -34
2013-12 -50 -73 -22 -34
2014-01 -48 -71 -19 -35
2014-02 -52 -72 -20 -34
2014-03 -47 -69 -19 -29
2014-04 -45 -70 -27 -32
2014-05 -50 -70 -23 -33
2014-06 -48 -69 -20 -36
2014-07 -49 -70 -17 -32
2014-08 -47 -70 -20 -33
2014-09 -51 -71 -20 -30
2014-10 -50 -73 -20 -31
2014-11 -48 -68 -17 -33
2014-12 -44 -67 -16 -27
2015-01 -42 -67 -17 -29
2015-02 -37 -61 -15 -27
2015-03 -34 -59 -13 -27
2015-04 -35 -57 -12 -24
2015-05 -34 -58 -14 -27
2015-06 -35 -58 -12 -27
2015-07 -36 -59 -12 -29
2015-08 -33 -57 -12 -29
2015-09 -28 -52 -6 -26
2015-10 -30 -54 -10 -24
2015-11 -31 -53 -10 -24
2015-12 -31 -54 -7 -26
2016-01 -27 -56 -9 -24
2016-02 -32 -56 -10 -24
2016-03 -35 -57 -12 -24
2016-04 -36 -57 -13 -25
2016-05 -28 -48 -10 -25
2016-06 -33 -53 -10 -23
2016-07 -32 -53 -10 -28
2016-08 -34 -54 -10 -22
2016-09 -29 -54 -9 -23
2016-10 -28 -53 -7 -23
2016-11 -25 -48 -7 -24
2016-12 -24 -52 -8 -22
2017-01 -26 -48 -5 -22
2017-02 -23 -48 -5 -22
2017-03 -23 -48 -7 -20
2017-04 -22 -50 -10 -19
2017-05 -17 -45 -7 -20
2017-06 1 -40 -4 -15
2017-07 -10 -39 -11 -17
2017-08 -19 -40 -9 -17
2017-09 -20 -41 -10 -21
2017-10 -23 -39 -15 -21
2017-11 -17 -38 -10 -19
2017-12 -15 -32 -10 -17
2018-01 -19 -31 -12 -16
2018-02 -24 -36 -18 -23
2018-03 -24 -40 -12 -24
2018-04 -22 -35 -12 -26
2018-05 -28 -39 -14 -25
2018-06 -33 -46 -14 -27
2018-07 -31 -47 -12 -28
2018-08 -29 -47 -12 -30
2018-09 -36 -49 -16 -30
2018-10 -31 -52 -16 -29
2018-11 -43 -57 -17 -28
2018-12 -42 -67 -22 -33
2019-01 -31 -64 -14 -28
2019-02 -29 -57 -12 -25
2019-03 -29 -53 -10 -26
2019-04 -29 -53 -9 -25
2019-05 -25 -50 -5 -23
2019-06 -23 -43 -6 -23

Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE.

CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances (Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted )
Avg. (1) Mar 19 April 19 May 19 June 19
Synthetic index (2) 100 96 97 99 101
Financial sit., past 12 m. -21 -26 -25 -23 -23
Financial sit., next 12 m. -6 -10 -9 -5 -6
Current saving capacity 8 11 10 11 12
Expected saving capacity -9 -5 -8 -6 -3
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 17 1 12 10 9
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. -14 -18 -15 -13 -12
Standard of living, past 12 m. -45 -53 -53 -50 -43
Standard of living, next 12 m. -25 -29 -29 -25 -23
Unemployment, next 12 m. 33 21 26 16 16
Consumer prices, past 12 m. -17 -19 -19 -18 -18
Consumer prices, next 12 m. -33 -23 -21 -22 -22
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2018
  • (2) The indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987–2018).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Economic situation in France

Past standard of living in France: clear rise

In June, the share of households considering that the past standard of living in France has improved during the past twelve months has increased: the corresponding balance has gained 7 points and thus slightly exceeds its long term average, for the first time since May 2018.

Households’ opinion balance about the future standard of living in France has increased by 2 points and now stands above its long term average.

Unemployment:stability

Households' fears about the unemployment trend have been stable in June: the corresponding balance has remained unchanged, after having strongly decreased in May (-10  points). Therefore, it remains well below its long term average.

Perceived and expected inflation : stability

In June, the share of households considering that prices will be on the rise during the next twelve months has been stable. The corresponding balance remains clearly above its long term average. The share of households considering that prices were on the rise during the past twelve months has also been stable butthe corresponding balance stands slightly below its long term average.

Households' unemployment expectations

Balance, SA
Households' unemployment expectations (Balance, SA)
Households' unemployment expectations
2010-01 55
2010-02 49
2010-03 58
2010-04 57
2010-05 58
2010-06 65
2010-07 59
2010-08 46
2010-09 31
2010-10 35
2010-11 35
2010-12 34
2011-01 37
2011-02 41
2011-03 33
2011-04 35
2011-05 27
2011-06 29
2011-07 37
2011-08 51
2011-09 57
2011-10 49
2011-11 61
2011-12 59
2012-01 57
2012-02 56
2012-03 52
2012-04 55
2012-05 43
2012-06 53
2012-07 65
2012-08 73
2012-09 73
2012-10 73
2012-11 70
2012-12 74
2013-01 72
2013-02 73
2013-03 77
2013-04 74
2013-05 78
2013-06 78
2013-07 61
2013-08 56
2013-09 51
2013-10 37
2013-11 62
2013-12 48
2014-01 55
2014-02 55
2014-03 55
2014-04 57
2014-05 61
2014-06 67
2014-07 67
2014-08 62
2014-09 67
2014-10 52
2014-11 66
2014-12 65
2015-01 66
2015-02 58
2015-03 43
2015-04 61
2015-05 62
2015-06 61
2015-07 58
2015-08 50
2015-09 44
2015-10 47
2015-11 36
2015-12 45
2016-01 36
2016-02 44
2016-03 39
2016-04 51
2016-05 26
2016-06 26
2016-07 28
2016-08 33
2016-09 28
2016-10 30
2016-11 28
2016-12 19
2017-01 18
2017-02 19
2017-03 21
2017-04 16
2017-05 23
2017-06 6
2017-07 10
2017-08 -2
2017-09 15
2017-10 12
2017-11 4
2017-12 6
2018-01 1
2018-02 4
2018-03 5
2018-04 4
2018-05 5
2018-06 17
2018-07 15
2018-08 23
2018-09 20
2018-10 6
2018-11 28
2018-12 30
2019-01 32
2019-02 11
2019-03 21
2019-04 26
2019-05 16
2019-06 16

Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE.

Households' perception of prices

Balance, SA
Households' perception of prices (Balance, SA)
Past prices Future prices
2010-01 -14 -41
2010-02 -19 -41
2010-03 -19 -39
2010-04 -10 -34
2010-05 -11 -28
2010-06 -10 -29
2010-07 -6 -27
2010-08 -4 -24
2010-09 -2 -29
2010-10 0 -25
2010-11 3 -25
2010-12 9 -22
2011-01 18 -19
2011-02 25 -9
2011-03 30 6
2011-04 46 0
2011-05 40 -13
2011-06 33 -14
2011-07 32 -18
2011-08 27 -18
2011-09 25 -20
2011-10 22 -23
2011-11 20 -15
2011-12 19 -16
2012-01 21 -16
2012-02 23 -11
2012-03 22 -21
2012-04 27 -20
2012-05 12 -32
2012-06 12 -34
2012-07 -2 -25
2012-08 -1 -16
2012-09 3 -13
2012-10 -1 -15
2012-11 -4 -14
2012-12 -7 -19
2013-01 -8 -19
2013-02 -10 -22
2013-03 -10 -14
2013-04 -13 -20
2013-05 -16 -17
2013-06 -11 -19
2013-07 -8 -17
2013-08 -3 -21
2013-09 4 -25
2013-10 -8 -21
2013-11 -8 -22
2013-12 -8 -17
2014-01 -15 -15
2014-02 -19 -22
2014-03 -23 -28
2014-04 -24 -29
2014-05 -23 -26
2014-06 -28 -31
2014-07 -31 -31
2014-08 -35 -37
2014-09 -40 -33
2014-10 -38 -28
2014-11 -38 -36
2014-12 -46 -43
2015-01 -50 -45
2015-02 -51 -45
2015-03 -53 -48
2015-04 -51 -43
2015-05 -56 -40
2015-06 -54 -38
2015-07 -52 -37
2015-08 -50 -36
2015-09 -52 -41
2015-10 -50 -41
2015-11 -50 -39
2015-12 -51 -39
2016-01 -52 -41
2016-02 -56 -39
2016-03 -58 -37
2016-04 -58 -37
2016-05 -53 -39
2016-06 -53 -36
2016-07 -51 -37
2016-08 -51 -35
2016-09 -45 -34
2016-10 -52 -38
2016-11 -52 -38
2016-12 -48 -29
2017-01 -44 -23
2017-02 -46 -31
2017-03 -47 -26
2017-04 -50 -27
2017-05 -55 -34
2017-06 -55 -41
2017-07 -53 -31
2017-08 -55 -32
2017-09 -54 -30
2017-10 -50 -24
2017-11 -46 -26
2017-12 -47 -34
2018-01 -42 -15
2018-02 -34 -20
2018-03 -38 -24
2018-04 -39 -26
2018-05 -29 -18
2018-06 -25 -20
2018-07 -26 -21
2018-08 -26 -21
2018-09 -15 -17
2018-10 -14 -15
2018-11 -10 -11
2018-12 -10 -24
2019-01 -33 -39
2019-02 -28 -18
2019-03 -19 -23
2019-04 -19 -21
2019-05 -18 -22
2019-06 -18 -22

Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE.

For more information

Definition – The synthetic households’ confidence index summarizes households’ opinion on the economic situation: the higher its value, the more favorable households’ judgment of the economic situation is. It is calculated using a factor analysis technique, which enables to summarize concomitant movements of highly correlated variables. The index describes here the common factor of 8 balances of opinion: past and future general economic situation in France, past and future personal financial situation, unemployment, major purchases intentions, current savings capacity and expected savings capacity.

Calculation method – Around 2,000 households are surveyed by telephone, during the first three weeks of each month. Answers to this survey were collected between May 27 and June 17 2019.For each question, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentages of positive and negative answers. Since the level of these balances is not open to direct interpretation, comments are based on their changes and their distance to their long–term average. Seasonal coefficients are calculated again every month, hence the slight revision of the seasonal adjusted balances history at each publication. Moreover, long term averages and seasonal coefficient models have been updated for this publication, thanks to the integration of a complete year of additional data.

Next publication: July 26 at 8:45 am

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)


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