In Q4 2018, GDP in volume terms grew at the same pace as in Q3: +0.3%. On average over the year, GDP increased by +1.6%, after +2.3% in 2017. Exluding working-day adjustment, GDP growth stands at +1.6% in 2018, after +2.2% in 2017.

Household consumption expenditures was flat in Q4 (0.0% after +0.4%), while total gross fixed capital formation slowed down (GFCF: +0.3% after +1.0%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes decelerated: it contributed 0.2 points to GDP growth, after 0.5 points in the previous quarter.

Imports bounced back in Q4 (+1.2% after −0.2%) while exports accelerated significantly (+2.2% after +0.6%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth: +0.3 points like in Q3. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.1 points after −0.5 points).

* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Households’ gross disposable income (GDI) sped up in current euros in Q4 2018 (+1.3% after +0.7%).

Social benefits in cash perceived by households accelerated (+0.8% after +0.5%), mainly due to the increase in the activity premium. Social contribution payed by households declined (−0.6% after +0.5%), because of abolition of unemployment insurance’ residual contributions for employees. The slight acceleration of gross payroll (+0.6% after +0.5%) as well as the continuing decline of taxes on incomes and wealth (−1.0% after −0.5%) due to cut in housing tax for some households, also contributed positively to households’ GDI.

Households’ consumption prices decelerated slightly in Q4 (+0.2% after +0.4%). Thus, households’ purchasing power accelerated markedly (+1.1% after +0.3%). Over the year, it decelerated (+1.0% in 2018 after +1.4% in 2017). When measured per consumption unit to be brought back to an individual level, it also decelerated over the year: +0.4% in 2018, after +0.7% in 2017.

In Q4, households’ consumption was stable while purchasing power rose. Therefore households’ savings rate bounced: it stands at 15.2% after 14.3% in Q3. On average over the year, the low point of the first quarter offset the high point of the fourth quarter and saving ratio increased only slightly (14.4% after 14.2% in 2017). Indeed, in 2018, consumption was slightly less dynamic (+0.8% in yearly average) than purchasing power (+1.0%).

In Q4 2018, non-financial corporations’ profit ratio was almost stable ( 31.8% after 31.7%): productivity gains and the improvement in the terms of trade were offset by the real wage acceleration of real wages.

On average over the year, non-financial corporations’ profit ratio took a slight step back at 31.8% in 2018 after 32.0% in 2017. Productivity gains were offset by the deterioration of the terms of trade due to the rise of oil prices.

General government deficit decreased by 0.3 points of GDP in Q4 2018 at 2.5% of GDP after 2.8%. Over the year, it accounted for 2.5% of GDP (an estimation in line with the first annual account notified to the European Commission).

Revenues rebounded in Q4 (+ 0.9% in current euros after -0.2%). Corporate tax was very dynamic after three quarters of decline and household income tax was also rebounding. However, revenues were mitigated by the effects of the 30% cut in the housing tax for 80% of households and by the abolition of the "unemployment" contribution of employees, on October 1st 2018.

Meanwhile, expenditures grew at almost the same pace as in the previous quarter (+ 0.4% after + 0.3%), due to the acceleration of social benefits and social transfers.

The estimation of GDP growth for Q4 2018 is confirmed at +0.3%. Slight revisions in different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to the revision of indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.

On average over the year, GDP growth is revised upward by 0.1 point, to + 1.6% in 2018.