26 February 2019
N° 2019-

In February 2019, households’ confidence has climbed againMonthly consumer confidence survey - February 2019

In February 2019, households’ confidence in the economic situation increased again.The synthetic index has gained 3 points and reached 95. It remains however below its long term average (100).

Informations rapides
Paru le : Paru le 26/02/2019
Prochaine parution le : 27/11/2019 at 08:45 - November 2019
Informations rapides - February 2019

In February 2019, households’ confidence in the economic situation increased again.The synthetic index has gained 3 points and reached 95. It remains however below its long term average (100).

Consumer confidence synthetic index

Consumer confidence synthetic index ()
Consumer confidence synthetic index
2000-01 118
2000-02 118
2000-03 119
2000-04 122
2000-05 122
2000-06 122
2000-07 123
2000-08 121
2000-09 118
2000-10 119
2000-11 119
2000-12 123
2001-01 126
2001-02 124
2001-03 122
2001-04 120
2001-05 116
2001-06 114
2001-07 114
2001-08 112
2001-09 110
2001-10 111
2001-11 112
2001-12 112
2002-01 112
2002-02 111
2002-03 111
2002-04 109
2002-05 112
2002-06 111
2002-07 109
2002-08 108
2002-09 106
2002-10 107
2002-11 108
2002-12 108
2003-01 104
2003-02 102
2003-03 98
2003-04 99
2003-05 101
2003-06 101
2003-07 100
2003-08 100
2003-09 99
2003-10 98
2003-11 98
2003-12 98
2004-01 99
2004-02 98
2004-03 99
2004-04 101
2004-05 100
2004-06 99
2004-07 99
2004-08 100
2004-09 102
2004-10 101
2004-11 100
2004-12 99
2005-01 97
2005-02 99
2005-03 97
2005-04 97
2005-05 95
2005-06 94
2005-07 94
2005-08 93
2005-09 92
2005-10 92
2005-11 92
2005-12 95
2006-01 97
2006-02 98
2006-03 97
2006-04 96
2006-05 95
2006-06 96
2006-07 98
2006-08 98
2006-09 99
2006-10 99
2006-11 99
2006-12 98
2007-01 99
2007-02 99
2007-03 101
2007-04 101
2007-05 108
2007-06 108
2007-07 107
2007-08 104
2007-09 101
2007-10 100
2007-11 94
2007-12 94
2008-01 90
2008-02 90
2008-03 89
2008-04 88
2008-05 85
2008-06 82
2008-07 81
2008-08 82
2008-09 84
2008-10 82
2008-11 83
2008-12 83
2009-01 84
2009-02 84
2009-03 84
2009-04 86
2009-05 86
2009-06 89
2009-07 89
2009-08 89
2009-09 90
2009-10 90
2009-11 93
2009-12 94
2010-01 94
2010-02 92
2010-03 91
2010-04 89
2010-05 88
2010-06 87
2010-07 87
2010-08 89
2010-09 90
2010-10 91
2010-11 93
2010-12 90
2011-01 89
2011-02 89
2011-03 87
2011-04 86
2011-05 87
2011-06 86
2011-07 89
2011-08 86
2011-09 84
2011-10 87
2011-11 84
2011-12 83
2012-01 84
2012-02 85
2012-03 89
2012-04 90
2012-05 92
2012-06 92
2012-07 89
2012-08 86
2012-09 85
2012-10 84
2012-11 84
2012-12 86
2013-01 85
2013-02 86
2013-03 83
2013-04 84
2013-05 80
2013-06 79
2013-07 83
2013-08 85
2013-09 86
2013-10 87
2013-11 84
2013-12 85
2014-01 86
2014-02 85
2014-03 88
2014-04 85
2014-05 85
2014-06 86
2014-07 87
2014-08 86
2014-09 86
2014-10 86
2014-11 87
2014-12 90
2015-01 89
2015-02 92
2015-03 94
2015-04 95
2015-05 93
2015-06 94
2015-07 93
2015-08 94
2015-09 97
2015-10 96
2015-11 96
2015-12 96
2016-01 97
2016-02 95
2016-03 95
2016-04 94
2016-05 98
2016-06 97
2016-07 95
2016-08 97
2016-09 98
2016-10 98
2016-11 99
2016-12 99
2017-01 100
2017-02 101
2017-03 101
2017-04 100
2017-05 102
2017-06 108
2017-07 104
2017-08 104
2017-09 102
2017-10 100
2017-11 103
2017-12 105
2018-01 105
2018-02 100
2018-03 100
2018-04 100
2018-05 99
2018-06 97
2018-07 97
2018-08 97
2018-09 94
2018-10 95
2018-11 92
2018-12 86
2019-01 92
2019-02 95

Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE.

Personal situation

Personal financial situation: improving slightly

In February, households’ opinion balance on their past personal situation has risen again: it has gained 4 points but still remains below its long term average.

Saving capacity and suitable time to save: increasing again

In February, households’ opinion balance on their saving capacity has improved again. The expected saving capacity balance has gained 4 points, while the one about their current saving capacity has gained 2. These two balances now stand above their long term average.

The share of households considering it is a suitable time to save has also increased: the corresponding balance has gained 3 points, remaining however well below its long term average.

Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France ()
Standard of living, future Standard of living, past Financial situation, future Financial situation, past
2010-01 -32 -62 -9 -24
2010-02 -34 -67 -12 -27
2010-03 -40 -69 -13 -26
2010-04 -46 -69 -16 -27
2010-05 -52 -69 -19 -27
2010-06 -55 -71 -19 -27
2010-07 -49 -71 -19 -30
2010-08 -43 -66 -18 -29
2010-09 -42 -64 -18 -28
2010-10 -40 -64 -15 -28
2010-11 -38 -64 -11 -23
2010-12 -42 -68 -16 -26
2011-01 -44 -70 -18 -26
2011-02 -46 -67 -18 -27
2011-03 -51 -69 -23 -29
2011-04 -56 -71 -21 -31
2011-05 -49 -69 -20 -31
2011-06 -48 -68 -21 -33
2011-07 -42 -67 -18 -31
2011-08 -56 -71 -23 -30
2011-09 -55 -75 -24 -31
2011-10 -51 -73 -21 -29
2011-11 -59 -74 -25 -30
2011-12 -57 -74 -30 -32
2012-01 -54 -73 -27 -32
2012-02 -49 -73 -26 -32
2012-03 -40 -68 -19 -29
2012-04 -38 -66 -16 -29
2012-05 -30 -65 -16 -26
2012-06 -30 -68 -16 -27
2012-07 -43 -69 -19 -27
2012-08 -51 -72 -19 -29
2012-09 -57 -75 -21 -29
2012-10 -60 -73 -25 -29
2012-11 -55 -73 -25 -31
2012-12 -54 -69 -23 -29
2013-01 -58 -69 -25 -28
2013-02 -56 -71 -24 -27
2013-03 -61 -75 -26 -29
2013-04 -62 -76 -25 -28
2013-05 -63 -79 -26 -37
2013-06 -66 -80 -27 -35
2013-07 -57 -77 -24 -34
2013-08 -50 -73 -22 -33
2013-09 -46 -72 -20 -33
2013-10 -45 -69 -18 -35
2013-11 -53 -75 -19 -34
2013-12 -50 -73 -22 -34
2014-01 -48 -71 -19 -35
2014-02 -52 -72 -20 -34
2014-03 -47 -69 -19 -29
2014-04 -45 -70 -27 -32
2014-05 -50 -70 -23 -33
2014-06 -48 -69 -20 -36
2014-07 -49 -70 -17 -32
2014-08 -47 -70 -20 -33
2014-09 -51 -71 -20 -30
2014-10 -50 -73 -20 -31
2014-11 -48 -68 -17 -33
2014-12 -44 -67 -16 -27
2015-01 -42 -67 -17 -29
2015-02 -37 -61 -15 -27
2015-03 -34 -59 -13 -27
2015-04 -35 -58 -12 -24
2015-05 -34 -58 -13 -27
2015-06 -35 -58 -12 -27
2015-07 -36 -58 -12 -29
2015-08 -33 -57 -12 -29
2015-09 -28 -52 -6 -26
2015-10 -30 -54 -10 -24
2015-11 -31 -53 -10 -24
2015-12 -32 -54 -7 -26
2016-01 -27 -56 -9 -24
2016-02 -32 -56 -10 -24
2016-03 -36 -57 -13 -25
2016-04 -37 -58 -13 -25
2016-05 -28 -48 -10 -25
2016-06 -33 -53 -10 -23
2016-07 -32 -53 -10 -28
2016-08 -34 -54 -10 -22
2016-09 -28 -54 -9 -23
2016-10 -28 -53 -7 -23
2016-11 -25 -48 -7 -24
2016-12 -25 -52 -8 -22
2017-01 -27 -48 -5 -22
2017-02 -23 -49 -6 -22
2017-03 -23 -47 -8 -21
2017-04 -23 -52 -10 -20
2017-05 -17 -46 -6 -19
2017-06 1 -38 -3 -14
2017-07 -10 -39 -11 -17
2017-08 -19 -40 -9 -17
2017-09 -20 -41 -10 -21
2017-10 -23 -39 -15 -21
2017-11 -17 -38 -10 -19
2017-12 -15 -32 -10 -17
2018-01 -19 -32 -12 -16
2018-02 -25 -36 -19 -23
2018-03 -25 -39 -12 -24
2018-04 -22 -37 -12 -26
2018-05 -28 -40 -13 -25
2018-06 -32 -45 -13 -27
2018-07 -31 -46 -11 -28
2018-08 -28 -46 -12 -29
2018-09 -35 -49 -16 -30
2018-10 -31 -51 -16 -29
2018-11 -43 -57 -18 -28
2018-12 -42 -67 -23 -33
2019-01 -32 -64 -14 -29
2019-02 -30 -58 -13 -25

Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE.

CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances (Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted )
Avg. (1) November 18 December 18 January 19 February 19
Synthetic index (2) 100 92 86 92 95
Financial sit., past 12 m. -21 -28 -33 -29 -25
Financial sit., next 12 m. -6 -18 -23 -14 -13
Current saving capacity 8 11 6 7 9
Expected saving capacity -9 -13 -20 -12 -8
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 17 5 -5 -1 2
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. -14 -16 -32 -22 -22
Standard of living, past 12 m. -45 -57 -67 -64 -58
Standard of living, next 12 m. -25 -43 -42 -32 -30
Unemployment, next 12 m. 33 27 30 32 12
Consumer prices, past 12 m. -17 -11 -11 -33 -30
Consumer prices, next 12 m. -33 -11 -23 -40 -19
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2018
  • (2) The indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987–2018).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Economic situation in France

Future standard of living in France: still increasing

In February, the share of households considering that the past standard of living in France has increased during the past twelve months has risen again: the corresponding balance has gained 6 points, although remaining below its long term average.

Households’ opinion balance about the future standard of living in France has also increased although to a lesser extent (+2 points after gaining 10 points in January). It remains below its long term average too.

Unemployment: fears decreasing sharply

Households' fears about the unemployment trend have decreased sharply in February: the corresponding balance has lost 20 points (after 3 consecutive months of increase). It is now well below its long term average.

Expected inflation: clear rise

In February, households considering that prices will be on the rise during the next twelve months have been clearly more numerous than the previous month: the corresponding balance has gained 21 points. It thus exceeds its long term average. Households are slightly more numerous than the previous month to consider that prices were on the rise during the last twelve months: the corresponding balance has gained 3 points (after losing 22 points in January) but remains below its long term average.

Households' unemployment expectations

Balance, SA
Households' unemployment expectations (Balance, SA)
Households' unemployment expectations
2010-01 55
2010-02 49
2010-03 58
2010-04 57
2010-05 58
2010-06 65
2010-07 59
2010-08 46
2010-09 31
2010-10 34
2010-11 35
2010-12 34
2011-01 37
2011-02 41
2011-03 33
2011-04 35
2011-05 27
2011-06 29
2011-07 37
2011-08 51
2011-09 57
2011-10 49
2011-11 61
2011-12 59
2012-01 57
2012-02 56
2012-03 52
2012-04 55
2012-05 43
2012-06 53
2012-07 65
2012-08 73
2012-09 73
2012-10 73
2012-11 70
2012-12 74
2013-01 72
2013-02 73
2013-03 77
2013-04 74
2013-05 78
2013-06 78
2013-07 61
2013-08 56
2013-09 51
2013-10 37
2013-11 62
2013-12 48
2014-01 55
2014-02 55
2014-03 55
2014-04 57
2014-05 60
2014-06 67
2014-07 67
2014-08 62
2014-09 67
2014-10 52
2014-11 66
2014-12 65
2015-01 66
2015-02 58
2015-03 44
2015-04 61
2015-05 61
2015-06 61
2015-07 58
2015-08 50
2015-09 44
2015-10 47
2015-11 35
2015-12 45
2016-01 36
2016-02 45
2016-03 40
2016-04 53
2016-05 24
2016-06 26
2016-07 28
2016-08 33
2016-09 28
2016-10 30
2016-11 27
2016-12 19
2017-01 18
2017-02 20
2017-03 22
2017-04 18
2017-05 21
2017-06 6
2017-07 9
2017-08 -2
2017-09 14
2017-10 12
2017-11 3
2017-12 6
2018-01 1
2018-02 5
2018-03 6
2018-04 7
2018-05 3
2018-06 17
2018-07 15
2018-08 22
2018-09 19
2018-10 6
2018-11 27
2018-12 30
2019-01 32
2019-02 12

Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE.

Households' perception of prices

Balance, SA
Households' perception of prices (Balance, SA)
Past prices Future prices
2010-01 -14 -41
2010-02 -19 -41
2010-03 -19 -39
2010-04 -10 -34
2010-05 -11 -28
2010-06 -10 -29
2010-07 -6 -27
2010-08 -4 -24
2010-09 -2 -29
2010-10 0 -25
2010-11 3 -25
2010-12 9 -22
2011-01 18 -19
2011-02 25 -9
2011-03 30 6
2011-04 46 0
2011-05 40 -13
2011-06 33 -14
2011-07 32 -18
2011-08 27 -18
2011-09 25 -20
2011-10 22 -23
2011-11 20 -15
2011-12 19 -16
2012-01 21 -16
2012-02 23 -11
2012-03 22 -21
2012-04 27 -20
2012-05 12 -32
2012-06 12 -34
2012-07 -2 -25
2012-08 -1 -16
2012-09 3 -13
2012-10 -1 -15
2012-11 -4 -14
2012-12 -7 -19
2013-01 -8 -19
2013-02 -10 -22
2013-03 -10 -14
2013-04 -13 -20
2013-05 -16 -17
2013-06 -11 -19
2013-07 -8 -17
2013-08 -3 -21
2013-09 4 -25
2013-10 -8 -21
2013-11 -8 -22
2013-12 -8 -17
2014-01 -14 -16
2014-02 -19 -22
2014-03 -23 -28
2014-04 -24 -29
2014-05 -23 -26
2014-06 -28 -31
2014-07 -31 -31
2014-08 -35 -37
2014-09 -40 -33
2014-10 -38 -28
2014-11 -38 -36
2014-12 -46 -43
2015-01 -50 -45
2015-02 -51 -45
2015-03 -53 -48
2015-04 -51 -43
2015-05 -56 -40
2015-06 -54 -38
2015-07 -52 -37
2015-08 -50 -36
2015-09 -52 -41
2015-10 -50 -41
2015-11 -50 -39
2015-12 -51 -39
2016-01 -52 -41
2016-02 -56 -40
2016-03 -57 -38
2016-04 -57 -37
2016-05 -53 -39
2016-06 -53 -35
2016-07 -51 -37
2016-08 -51 -35
2016-09 -45 -34
2016-10 -52 -38
2016-11 -53 -38
2016-12 -48 -29
2017-01 -44 -24
2017-02 -47 -31
2017-03 -46 -26
2017-04 -49 -28
2017-05 -56 -34
2017-06 -55 -40
2017-07 -53 -31
2017-08 -54 -32
2017-09 -54 -30
2017-10 -50 -24
2017-11 -46 -26
2017-12 -47 -34
2018-01 -41 -15
2018-02 -36 -20
2018-03 -38 -25
2018-04 -37 -26
2018-05 -30 -18
2018-06 -25 -19
2018-07 -25 -21
2018-08 -26 -21
2018-09 -15 -16
2018-10 -14 -14
2018-11 -11 -11
2018-12 -11 -23
2019-01 -33 -40
2019-02 -30 -19

Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE.

Revision

Due to the updating of the seasonal adjustment coefficients, the synthetic index of January 2019 was revised downwards by one point: it now stands at 92.

For more information

Definition – The synthetic households’ confidence index summarizes households’ opinion on the economic situation: the higher its value, the more favorable households’ judgement of the economic situation is. It is calculated using a factor analysis technique, which enables to summarize concomitant movements of highly correlated variables. The index describes here the common factor of 8 balances of opinion: past and future general economic situation in France, past and future personal financial situation, unemployment, major purchases intentions, current savings capacity and expected savings capacity.

Calculation method – Around 2,000 households are surveyed by telephone, during the first three weeks of each month. Answers to this survey were collected between January29 and February16 2019.For each question, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentages of positive and negative answers. Since the level of these balances is not open to direct interpretation, comments are based on their changes and their distance to their long–term average. Seasonal coefficients are calculated again every month, hence the slight revision of the seasonal adjusted balances history at each publication. Moreover, long term averages and seasonal coefficient models have been updated for this publication, thanks to the integration of a complete year of additional data.

Next publication: March 27 at 8:45 am

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)


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