23 January 2019
2019- n° 13In January 2019, industrialists are slightly more optimistic about the development
of demand Quarterly business survey (goods-producing industries) - January 2019
In January 2019, the balances of industrialists' opinion on overall and foreign demand in the last three months have recovered above their long-term average – they had significantly dropped over the past year. Business managers are also more optimistic about overall demand over the next three months. The balance on foreign demandfor the coming months remains stable.Both balances are significantly higher than their long-term average.
Demand has been assessed slightly more favourably
In January 2019, the balances of industrialists' opinion on overall and foreign demand in the last three months have recovered above their long-term average – they had significantly dropped over the past year. Business managers are also more optimistic about overall demand over the next three months. The balance on foreign demandfor the coming months remains stable.Both balances are significantly higher than their long-term average.
tableauBalance of opinion on past change in demand
| Foreign past demand | Global past demand | |
|---|---|---|
| 1998-Q1 | 26.8 | 26.6 |
| 1998-Q2 | 19.7 | 18.6 |
| 1998-Q3 | 12.4 | 18.0 |
| 1998-Q4 | 4.9 | 11.9 |
| 1999-Q1 | -2.1 | 4.5 |
| 1999-Q2 | -1.2 | -1.7 |
| 1999-Q3 | 12.8 | 13.2 |
| 1999-Q4 | 17.9 | 23.8 |
| 2000-Q1 | 30.8 | 30.3 |
| 2000-Q2 | 40.1 | 32.7 |
| 2000-Q3 | 25.7 | 28.6 |
| 2000-Q4 | 32.9 | 33.2 |
| 2001-Q1 | 20.5 | 11.8 |
| 2001-Q2 | 5.9 | 9.1 |
| 2001-Q3 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
| 2001-Q4 | -13.1 | -12.1 |
| 2002-Q1 | -21.2 | -23.8 |
| 2002-Q2 | -10.5 | -10.4 |
| 2002-Q3 | -5.2 | -8.0 |
| 2002-Q4 | -12.8 | -19.2 |
| 2003-Q1 | -6.2 | -6.3 |
| 2003-Q2 | -19.4 | -22.0 |
| 2003-Q3 | -15.9 | -19.8 |
| 2003-Q4 | 2.1 | -9.1 |
| 2004-Q1 | 9.4 | 0.1 |
| 2004-Q2 | 9.6 | 10.0 |
| 2004-Q3 | 17.4 | 12.8 |
| 2004-Q4 | 12.8 | 8.5 |
| 2005-Q1 | 15.8 | 16.9 |
| 2005-Q2 | 2.3 | -3.6 |
| 2005-Q3 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| 2005-Q4 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| 2006-Q1 | 15.9 | 14.8 |
| 2006-Q2 | 25.8 | 16.5 |
| 2006-Q3 | 17.7 | 13.2 |
| 2006-Q4 | 20.4 | 15.9 |
| 2007-Q1 | 19.4 | 13.2 |
| 2007-Q2 | 21.2 | 17.4 |
| 2007-Q3 | 30.1 | 23.1 |
| 2007-Q4 | 12.2 | 17.7 |
| 2008-Q1 | 15.2 | 16.5 |
| 2008-Q2 | 8.1 | 14.7 |
| 2008-Q3 | -1.4 | -8.3 |
| 2008-Q4 | -21.6 | -21.7 |
| 2009-Q1 | -42.6 | -42.2 |
| 2009-Q2 | -57.0 | -53.1 |
| 2009-Q3 | -32.9 | -23.5 |
| 2009-Q4 | -10.9 | -12.1 |
| 2010-Q1 | 5.9 | 9.4 |
| 2010-Q2 | 0.7 | 6.3 |
| 2010-Q3 | 17.2 | 18.3 |
| 2010-Q4 | 18.1 | 17.2 |
| 2011-Q1 | 24.6 | 25.0 |
| 2011-Q2 | 28.5 | 20.9 |
| 2011-Q3 | 14.0 | 14.6 |
| 2011-Q4 | 4.4 | 0.6 |
| 2012-Q1 | 0.4 | -4.4 |
| 2012-Q2 | 4.8 | -2.6 |
| 2012-Q3 | -6.7 | -16.0 |
| 2012-Q4 | -11.0 | -17.0 |
| 2013-Q1 | -18.0 | -15.4 |
| 2013-Q2 | -15.5 | -24.1 |
| 2013-Q3 | -6.6 | -10.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | -1.7 | -2.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| 2014-Q2 | 6.1 | 6.4 |
| 2014-Q3 | -2.2 | -5.6 |
| 2014-Q4 | -0.5 | -2.5 |
| 2015-Q1 | 7.4 | -3.7 |
| 2015-Q2 | 7.5 | 4.3 |
| 2015-Q3 | 3.6 | 1.4 |
| 2015-Q4 | 6.5 | 4.7 |
| 2016-Q1 | 6.0 | 2.2 |
| 2016-Q2 | 10.7 | 13.3 |
| 2016-Q3 | 6.3 | 11.8 |
| 2016-Q4 | 4.4 | 3.7 |
| 2017-Q1 | 12.4 | 11.8 |
| 2017-Q2 | 9.8 | 11.0 |
| 2017-Q3 | 19.7 | 16.2 |
| 2017-Q4 | 17.9 | 17.7 |
| 2018-Q1 | 21.8 | 21.7 |
| 2018-Q2 | 13.7 | 18.3 |
| 2018-Q3 | 8.0 | 9.1 |
| 2018-Q4 | 0.3 | -1.7 |
| 2019-Q1 | 3.6 | 1.0 |
graphiqueBalance of opinion on past change in demand
- Source: INSEE.
Pressure on production equipment remains high
In January 2019, industrialists report that they have used their machinery and equipment as intensively as in October. After a slow decline since the begining of 2018, the production capacity utilisation rate remains at 85.1%. It had reached in January 2018 its highest level in ten years.
Barely fewer industrialists than in October consider that they could not produce more if they received more orders: production bottlenecks affect 35 % of businesses. This share had reached in October 2018 its highest level since October 2000. The proportion of industrialists indicating difficulties of supply exclusively has slightly oscillatedaround 30 % since the beggining of the year 2018, well above its average. The share of industrialists reporting difficulties of demand exclusively has again slightly increased, but remains well below its average.
tableauProduction capacity utilisation rate
| Production capacity utilisation rate | |
|---|---|
| 1998-Q1 | 83.0 |
| 1998-Q2 | 83.3 |
| 1998-Q3 | 84.6 |
| 1998-Q4 | 83.3 |
| 1999-Q1 | 84.0 |
| 1999-Q2 | 83.0 |
| 1999-Q3 | 83.5 |
| 1999-Q4 | 84.3 |
| 2000-Q1 | 83.8 |
| 2000-Q2 | 85.0 |
| 2000-Q3 | 85.5 |
| 2000-Q4 | 86.1 |
| 2001-Q1 | 86.2 |
| 2001-Q2 | 85.8 |
| 2001-Q3 | 84.9 |
| 2001-Q4 | 84.2 |
| 2002-Q1 | 84.1 |
| 2002-Q2 | 85.0 |
| 2002-Q3 | 84.1 |
| 2002-Q4 | 83.3 |
| 2003-Q1 | 83.4 |
| 2003-Q2 | 82.7 |
| 2003-Q3 | 82.6 |
| 2003-Q4 | 82.2 |
| 2004-Q1 | 82.7 |
| 2004-Q2 | 82.6 |
| 2004-Q3 | 82.8 |
| 2004-Q4 | 82.9 |
| 2005-Q1 | 82.7 |
| 2005-Q2 | 82.6 |
| 2005-Q3 | 82.8 |
| 2005-Q4 | 82.4 |
| 2006-Q1 | 83.4 |
| 2006-Q2 | 84.2 |
| 2006-Q3 | 85.1 |
| 2006-Q4 | 85.6 |
| 2007-Q1 | 84.8 |
| 2007-Q2 | 85.9 |
| 2007-Q3 | 85.9 |
| 2007-Q4 | 86.7 |
| 2008-Q1 | 86.4 |
| 2008-Q2 | 85.5 |
| 2008-Q3 | 84.9 |
| 2008-Q4 | 83.2 |
| 2009-Q1 | 75.4 |
| 2009-Q2 | 72.2 |
| 2009-Q3 | 73.3 |
| 2009-Q4 | 75.4 |
| 2010-Q1 | 75.2 |
| 2010-Q2 | 77.5 |
| 2010-Q3 | 77.9 |
| 2010-Q4 | 79.5 |
| 2011-Q1 | 80.7 |
| 2011-Q2 | 82.6 |
| 2011-Q3 | 82.5 |
| 2011-Q4 | 82.6 |
| 2012-Q1 | 81.3 |
| 2012-Q2 | 81.4 |
| 2012-Q3 | 80.5 |
| 2012-Q4 | 80.4 |
| 2013-Q1 | 80.9 |
| 2013-Q2 | 80.4 |
| 2013-Q3 | 80.2 |
| 2013-Q4 | 80.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | 80.7 |
| 2014-Q2 | 80.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | 81.9 |
| 2014-Q4 | 80.8 |
| 2015-Q1 | 80.8 |
| 2015-Q2 | 82.3 |
| 2015-Q3 | 82.0 |
| 2015-Q4 | 82.3 |
| 2016-Q1 | 81.0 |
| 2016-Q2 | 82.3 |
| 2016-Q3 | 83.5 |
| 2016-Q4 | 83.0 |
| 2017-Q1 | 84.0 |
| 2017-Q2 | 83.8 |
| 2017-Q3 | 84.6 |
| 2017-Q4 | 84.6 |
| 2018-Q1 | 85.8 |
| 2018-Q2 | 85.3 |
| 2018-Q3 | 85.3 |
| 2018-Q4 | 85.1 |
| 2019-Q1 | 85.1 |
graphiqueProduction capacity utilisation rate
- Source: INSEE.
tableauFigure1 – Industrialists’ opinion : demand and production factors
| Manufacturing industry | Mean | Apr. 18 | Jul. 18 | Oct. 18 | Jan. 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall demand | |||||
| Past change | 0 | 18 | 9 | -2 | 1 |
| Expected change | 2 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 11 |
| Foreign demand | |||||
| Past change | 2 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 4 |
| Expected change | 4 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Production factors | |||||
| Production bottlenecks (in %) | 22 | 31 | 32 | 36 | 35 |
| Assessment of productive capacity | 13 | -4 | -3 | -2 | -1 |
| Production capacity utilisation rate (in %) | 83 | 85,3 | 85,3 | 85,1 | 85,1 |
| Difficulties of supply and demand (in %) | |||||
| Difficulties of supply and demand | 8 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Difficulties of supply only | 20 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 30 |
| Difficulties of demand only | 43 | 27 | 25 | 26 | 28 |
- * : Long-term average since 1976, expect for supply and demand (since 1991).
- The results of the last survey are preliminary
- Sources : Insee – Quarterly business survey in industry
The balances of opinion on workforce size trends have picked up
In January 2019, slightly more industrialists than in October 2018 have reported an increase in their workforce size rather than a decrease in the last three months. Also more of them have forecast job growth rather than job cuts over the next three months. Both corresponding balances stand significantly above their long-term average.
Among industrialists, 44 %have experienced hiring difficulties. This sharehas been virtually stable since summer 2018. After a sharp increase in 2017, it remains at a high level, significantly higher than its long-term average.
tableauOpinion on workforce size in the manufacturing industry
| Expected change (advanced of one quarter) | Past change | |
|---|---|---|
| 1998-01 | -6.3 | -1.3 |
| 1998-02 | NaN | NaN |
| 1998-03 | NaN | NaN |
| 1998-04 | -6.2 | 2.1 |
| 1998-05 | NaN | NaN |
| 1998-06 | NaN | NaN |
| 1998-07 | -5.7 | 0.8 |
| 1998-08 | NaN | NaN |
| 1998-09 | NaN | NaN |
| 1998-10 | -6.3 | -1.8 |
| 1998-11 | NaN | NaN |
| 1998-12 | NaN | NaN |
| 1999-01 | -7.0 | -4.4 |
| 1999-02 | NaN | NaN |
| 1999-03 | NaN | NaN |
| 1999-04 | -8.8 | -7.2 |
| 1999-05 | NaN | NaN |
| 1999-06 | NaN | NaN |
| 1999-07 | -5.9 | -6.9 |
| 1999-08 | NaN | NaN |
| 1999-09 | NaN | NaN |
| 1999-10 | 1.8 | 7.0 |
| 1999-11 | NaN | NaN |
| 1999-12 | NaN | NaN |
| 2000-01 | 7.3 | 6.0 |
| 2000-02 | NaN | NaN |
| 2000-03 | NaN | NaN |
| 2000-04 | 5.9 | 6.5 |
| 2000-05 | NaN | NaN |
| 2000-06 | NaN | NaN |
| 2000-07 | 10.6 | 13.6 |
| 2000-08 | NaN | NaN |
| 2000-09 | NaN | NaN |
| 2000-10 | 13.2 | 15.6 |
| 2000-11 | NaN | NaN |
| 2000-12 | NaN | NaN |
| 2001-01 | 10.0 | 17.6 |
| 2001-02 | NaN | NaN |
| 2001-03 | NaN | NaN |
| 2001-04 | 6.1 | 9.7 |
| 2001-05 | NaN | NaN |
| 2001-06 | NaN | NaN |
| 2001-07 | 0.4 | 6.6 |
| 2001-08 | NaN | NaN |
| 2001-09 | NaN | NaN |
| 2001-10 | -10.2 | 0.1 |
| 2001-11 | NaN | NaN |
| 2001-12 | NaN | NaN |
| 2002-01 | -11.9 | -8.7 |
| 2002-02 | NaN | NaN |
| 2002-03 | NaN | NaN |
| 2002-04 | -8.3 | -8.9 |
| 2002-05 | NaN | NaN |
| 2002-06 | NaN | NaN |
| 2002-07 | -7.1 | -9.6 |
| 2002-08 | NaN | NaN |
| 2002-09 | NaN | NaN |
| 2002-10 | -13.2 | -12.6 |
| 2002-11 | NaN | NaN |
| 2002-12 | NaN | NaN |
| 2003-01 | -10.0 | -15.5 |
| 2003-02 | -18.0 | -16.5 |
| 2003-03 | -17.6 | -14.5 |
| 2003-04 | -18.2 | -13.6 |
| 2003-05 | -17.8 | -17.7 |
| 2003-06 | -23.1 | -15.9 |
| 2003-07 | -21.7 | -18.2 |
| 2003-08 | -21.4 | -17.1 |
| 2003-09 | -21.7 | -16.1 |
| 2003-10 | -20.1 | -19.0 |
| 2003-11 | -20.9 | -18.7 |
| 2003-12 | -21.4 | -18.2 |
| 2004-01 | -16.7 | -17.3 |
| 2004-02 | -18.1 | -15.7 |
| 2004-03 | -14.4 | -15.5 |
| 2004-04 | -12.8 | -14.0 |
| 2004-05 | -11.1 | -14.0 |
| 2004-06 | -12.9 | -13.7 |
| 2004-07 | -12.7 | -12.6 |
| 2004-08 | -12.0 | -11.8 |
| 2004-09 | -11.8 | -10.8 |
| 2004-10 | -11.5 | -10.0 |
| 2004-11 | -15.6 | -8.8 |
| 2004-12 | -16.2 | -12.0 |
| 2005-01 | -15.2 | -10.8 |
| 2005-02 | -15.8 | -12.2 |
| 2005-03 | -13.0 | -12.9 |
| 2005-04 | -17.0 | -15.5 |
| 2005-05 | -17.0 | -13.3 |
| 2005-06 | -15.1 | -12.4 |
| 2005-07 | -12.5 | -12.8 |
| 2005-08 | -12.2 | -12.5 |
| 2005-09 | -12.5 | -12.0 |
| 2005-10 | -14.0 | -10.1 |
| 2005-11 | -11.3 | -9.4 |
| 2005-12 | -12.1 | -9.3 |
| 2006-01 | -12.4 | -9.5 |
| 2006-02 | -9.4 | -9.6 |
| 2006-03 | -8.7 | -7.7 |
| 2006-04 | -8.0 | -7.6 |
| 2006-05 | -7.9 | -5.9 |
| 2006-06 | -7.6 | -3.4 |
| 2006-07 | -5.9 | -2.9 |
| 2006-08 | -5.6 | -3.1 |
| 2006-09 | -6.3 | -2.9 |
| 2006-10 | -5.8 | -0.7 |
| 2006-11 | -5.5 | -4.2 |
| 2006-12 | -4.4 | -4.2 |
| 2007-01 | -3.0 | -4.9 |
| 2007-02 | -3.3 | -1.1 |
| 2007-03 | -3.8 | -0.6 |
| 2007-04 | -2.0 | 1.9 |
| 2007-05 | -1.9 | 2.2 |
| 2007-06 | -1.9 | 2.1 |
| 2007-07 | -3.8 | 0.7 |
| 2007-08 | -1.0 | 0.8 |
| 2007-09 | -0.1 | 1.4 |
| 2007-10 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| 2007-11 | 2.5 | 3.7 |
| 2007-12 | 2.4 | 4.5 |
| 2008-01 | 1.8 | 5.3 |
| 2008-02 | 1.2 | 2.9 |
| 2008-03 | 0.1 | 5.4 |
| 2008-04 | 0.1 | 3.6 |
| 2008-05 | -5.0 | -0.5 |
| 2008-06 | -6.8 | -2.3 |
| 2008-07 | -9.4 | -3.3 |
| 2008-08 | -12.6 | -5.4 |
| 2008-09 | -14.8 | -6.9 |
| 2008-10 | -18.0 | -8.4 |
| 2008-11 | -29.0 | -18.9 |
| 2008-12 | -37.2 | -23.7 |
| 2009-01 | -35.1 | -25.4 |
| 2009-02 | -38.2 | -31.2 |
| 2009-03 | -40.7 | -33.5 |
| 2009-04 | -37.4 | -34.2 |
| 2009-05 | -35.6 | -38.2 |
| 2009-06 | -35.9 | -38.7 |
| 2009-07 | -30.6 | -38.1 |
| 2009-08 | -28.6 | -32.1 |
| 2009-09 | -27.3 | -33.4 |
| 2009-10 | -25.1 | -31.3 |
| 2009-11 | -22.3 | -26.4 |
| 2009-12 | -21.8 | -25.2 |
| 2010-01 | -18.6 | -23.7 |
| 2010-02 | -17.9 | -21.0 |
| 2010-03 | -17.3 | -19.7 |
| 2010-04 | -15.6 | -18.3 |
| 2010-05 | -12.3 | -12.8 |
| 2010-06 | -10.7 | -10.2 |
| 2010-07 | -9.5 | -9.4 |
| 2010-08 | -9.4 | -7.6 |
| 2010-09 | -2.7 | -6.3 |
| 2010-10 | -2.9 | -3.9 |
| 2010-11 | -1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2010-12 | 0.7 | -0.2 |
| 2011-01 | 1.4 | -0.6 |
| 2011-02 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| 2011-03 | 5.0 | 6.7 |
| 2011-04 | 2.3 | 7.2 |
| 2011-05 | 4.1 | 8.4 |
| 2011-06 | 7.0 | 11.4 |
| 2011-07 | 3.8 | 9.2 |
| 2011-08 | -2.3 | 5.6 |
| 2011-09 | -3.6 | -0.1 |
| 2011-10 | -7.0 | 1.7 |
| 2011-11 | -8.1 | 0.4 |
| 2011-12 | -12.7 | -0.8 |
| 2012-01 | -7.7 | -2.3 |
| 2012-02 | -9.9 | -5.4 |
| 2012-03 | -7.1 | -2.7 |
| 2012-04 | -7.4 | -3.2 |
| 2012-05 | -10.8 | -4.6 |
| 2012-06 | -13.0 | -6.8 |
| 2012-07 | -12.3 | -6.5 |
| 2012-08 | -15.5 | -9.7 |
| 2012-09 | -20.1 | -14.2 |
| 2012-10 | -17.0 | -10.8 |
| 2012-11 | -20.1 | -16.1 |
| 2012-12 | -18.8 | -16.3 |
| 2013-01 | -13.7 | -11.8 |
| 2013-02 | -18.1 | -15.2 |
| 2013-03 | -20.5 | -16.4 |
| 2013-04 | -15.2 | -12.1 |
| 2013-05 | -19.1 | -15.7 |
| 2013-06 | -21.0 | -17.7 |
| 2013-07 | -16.3 | -13.6 |
| 2013-08 | -16.5 | -15.2 |
| 2013-09 | -15.5 | -12.6 |
| 2013-10 | -12.0 | -12.4 |
| 2013-11 | -13.8 | -12.1 |
| 2013-12 | -11.3 | -9.8 |
| 2014-01 | -12.2 | -10.1 |
| 2014-02 | -13.0 | -11.2 |
| 2014-03 | -11.9 | -10.6 |
| 2014-04 | -11.7 | -9.3 |
| 2014-05 | -11.4 | -8.1 |
| 2014-06 | -12.2 | -9.6 |
| 2014-07 | -10.3 | -5.8 |
| 2014-08 | -12.6 | -9.5 |
| 2014-09 | -13.6 | -9.6 |
| 2014-10 | -12.6 | -10.3 |
| 2014-11 | -13.7 | -10.3 |
| 2014-12 | -12.8 | -13.1 |
| 2015-01 | -13.0 | -11.5 |
| 2015-02 | -11.3 | -12.0 |
| 2015-03 | -10.4 | -9.8 |
| 2015-04 | -9.8 | -8.1 |
| 2015-05 | -10.2 | -8.0 |
| 2015-06 | -8.8 | -9.0 |
| 2015-07 | -9.6 | -8.2 |
| 2015-08 | -8.9 | -7.0 |
| 2015-09 | -6.7 | -7.9 |
| 2015-10 | -8.5 | -7.9 |
| 2015-11 | -5.0 | -5.6 |
| 2015-12 | -6.9 | -8.8 |
| 2016-01 | -6.1 | -7.3 |
| 2016-02 | -7.5 | -7.5 |
| 2016-03 | -6.2 | -5.7 |
| 2016-04 | -7.7 | -6.1 |
| 2016-05 | -6.1 | -4.4 |
| 2016-06 | -6.1 | -5.2 |
| 2016-07 | -7.0 | -6.6 |
| 2016-08 | -8.8 | -4.5 |
| 2016-09 | -4.9 | -7.4 |
| 2016-10 | -3.4 | -5.8 |
| 2016-11 | -3.7 | -3.0 |
| 2016-12 | -3.2 | -0.7 |
| 2017-01 | -5.7 | -4.2 |
| 2017-02 | -3.2 | -1.4 |
| 2017-03 | -2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2017-04 | -4.0 | -2.6 |
| 2017-05 | -2.3 | -1.0 |
| 2017-06 | -2.9 | -1.3 |
| 2017-07 | -1.5 | 0.1 |
| 2017-08 | -0.9 | -0.6 |
| 2017-09 | 0.1 | -1.7 |
| 2017-10 | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| 2017-11 | 3.0 | 2.4 |
| 2017-12 | 1.7 | 5.5 |
| 2018-01 | 2.8 | 4.1 |
| 2018-02 | 4.9 | 3.9 |
| 2018-03 | 4.9 | 3.5 |
| 2018-04 | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| 2018-05 | 3.3 | 3.7 |
| 2018-06 | 4.2 | 3.2 |
| 2018-07 | 0.8 | 2.7 |
| 2018-08 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2018-09 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| 2018-10 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2018-11 | -0.9 | -1.4 |
| 2018-12 | 4.3 | 1.1 |
| 2019-01 | 1.1 | 3.3 |
graphiqueOpinion on workforce size in the manufacturing industry
- Source: INSEE.
Stable selling prices
According to industrialists, selling prices in the manufacturing industry have stagnated in Q4 2018 (+0.0% after +0.3% in the previous quarter). Business managers forecast a small price increase in Q1 2019 (+0.1%).
Only 12% of the industrialists have experienced cash-flow problems – thissharehasslightly increased but remains below its long-term mean (14%).
General export prospects have sharply dropped
Industrialists are significantly less upbeat on general export prospects: after reaching in January 2018 a peak since October 2000, the corresponding balance has drastically fallen back to its lowest level since December 2014,below its long-term average. More industrialists report a deterioration in their competitive position for all three markets (domestic, EU and outside the EU markets). The corresponding balances have slightly decreased again – those regarding foreign markets stand below their long-term average.
tableauFigure2 – Industrialists’ opinion : employment, competitive position, cash-flow and selling prices
| Manufacturing industry | Mean | Apr. 18 | Jul. 18 | Oct. 18 | Jan. 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall demand | |||||
| Past change | -11 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Expected change | -13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Difficulties hiring (in %) | 29 | 42 | 44 | 43 | 44 |
| Selling prices and cash-flow | |||||
| Past change on selling prices | 0,1 | 0,2 | 0,4 | 0,3 | 0 |
| Expected change on selling prices | 0,2 | 0,1 | 0,1 | 0,2 | 0,1 |
| Cash-flow problems (in %) | 14 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| Competitive position | |||||
| On the domestic market | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| On foreign markets inside EU | -1 | 6 | 1 | -4 | -5 |
| On foreign markets outside EU | -2 | -3 | -3 | -6 | -7 |
| General exportation expectations | -8 | 17 | 3 | 2 | -13 |
- * : Long-term average since 1991, except for workforce change (since 1976) and for competitive position by market (since 1997).
- The results of the last survey are preliminary
- A quantitative question is asked about selling prices.
- Source : Insee – Quarterly business survey in industry
tableauCompetitive position
| Foreign market (outside EU) (right scale) | Domestic market (left scale) | Foreign market (inside EU) (right scale) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-Q1 | 2.2 | -4.4 | -7.7 |
| 2009-Q2 | -12.2 | -5.2 | -10.8 |
| 2009-Q3 | -14.2 | -8.6 | -14.7 |
| 2009-Q4 | -11.0 | -2.7 | -10.5 |
| 2010-Q1 | -11.7 | -1.9 | -5.7 |
| 2010-Q2 | 2.7 | -0.5 | -3.1 |
| 2010-Q3 | 16.0 | 5.6 | 3.9 |
| 2010-Q4 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 6.0 |
| 2011-Q1 | -1.3 | -2.0 | -4.1 |
| 2011-Q2 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| 2011-Q3 | -2.7 | -1.0 | 1.2 |
| 2011-Q4 | 1.2 | -2.3 | -4.3 |
| 2012-Q1 | 4.4 | -9.0 | -12.4 |
| 2012-Q2 | 6.8 | -5.8 | -8.5 |
| 2012-Q3 | 4.3 | -1.4 | -1.0 |
| 2012-Q4 | -0.4 | -3.7 | -7.3 |
| 2013-Q1 | -1.5 | -2.9 | -9.1 |
| 2013-Q2 | -0.9 | -3.0 | -5.0 |
| 2013-Q3 | 0.2 | -4.2 | -6.7 |
| 2013-Q4 | -2.2 | -2.4 | -3.0 |
| 2014-Q1 | -6.1 | 0.7 | -4.2 |
| 2014-Q2 | -9.7 | -0.7 | -2.3 |
| 2014-Q3 | -7.3 | -2.4 | -2.4 |
| 2014-Q4 | -3.2 | -6.0 | -8.4 |
| 2015-Q1 | -1.3 | -0.8 | -4.7 |
| 2015-Q2 | 9.6 | -1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2015-Q3 | 0.9 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| 2015-Q4 | -3.4 | -3.1 | -6.3 |
| 2016-Q1 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2016-Q2 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2016-Q3 | -1.0 | 0.0 | -1.3 |
| 2016-Q4 | -1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2017-Q1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 2017-Q2 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 4.8 |
| 2017-Q3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 5.2 |
| 2017-Q4 | -0.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 |
| 2018-Q1 | 0.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 |
| 2018-Q2 | -3.5 | 7.2 | 6.2 |
| 2018-Q3 | -3.0 | 5.4 | 1.2 |
| 2018-Q4 | -5.6 | 3.5 | -4.1 |
| 2019-Q1 | -6.8 | 1.7 | -4.7 |
graphiqueCompetitive position
- Source: INSEE.
For further information
The quarterly questions complete the monthly survey published in the version dated January 23 2019, especially as regards demand and production factors. A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab on this page.
Next issue: 24 April 2019 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,174 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The quarterly questions complete the monthly survey published in the version dated January 23 2019, especially as regards demand and production factors. A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab on this page.
Next issue: 24 April 2019 at 8:45 am
Time series : Industry
