Informations rapides
27 June 2018
2018 - n° 168
In June 2018, households' confidence has declinedMonthly consumer confidence survey - June 2018

In June 2018, households' confidence in the economic situation has deteriorated: the synthetic index has lost 2 points and reached 97, its lowest level since August 2016. It stands below its long term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 168
Paru le : Paru le 27/06/2018
Prochaine parution le : 27/01/2021 at 08:45 - January 2021

In June 2018, households' confidence in the economic situation has deteriorated: the synthetic index has lost 2 points and reached 97, its lowest level since August 2016. It stands below its long term average (100).

Graph1Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE

Personal situation

Personal financial situation: decreasing slightly

In June, households' balances of opinion on their past personal situation has slightly decreased (−2 points) while the one on their expected financial situation remained stable. Both balances stand below their long term average.

The share of households considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases has decreased strongly in June (−4 points). However, the corresponding balance stays clearly above its long term average.

Expected saving capacity: clear drop

In June, households' opinion balance on their expected saving capacity has dropped: it has lost 6 points after gaining 6 in May, thus returning to its long term average. The balance on their current saving capacity has been virtually stable (+1 point) and stays slightly above its long term average.

The share of households considering it a suitable time to save has been stable in June. Thus, the corresponding balance clearly remains below its long term average.

Economic situation in France

Standard of living in France: opinion's balances deteriorating again

In June, households have been more pessimistic about their future standard of living in France: the corresponding balance has lost 5 points, after −4 in May. Henceforth, it clearly stands below its long term average. Households were also less numerous to consider that the past standard of living in France improved during the past twelve months: the corresponding balance has lost 4 points after −3 in May, but remains slightly above its long term average.

Graph2Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE

Unemployment: fears rising sharply again

Households' fears about the unemployment trend have increased massively in June: the corresponding balance has gained 18 points, reaching its highest level since May 2017. However, it is still clearly below its long term average.

Graph3Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE

Perceived inflation: rising again

In June, households were more numerous than the previous month to consider that prices were on the rise during the last twelve months: the corresponding balance has gained 4 points, after +9 points in May. Still, it remains above its long term average.

Households were almost as numerous as in May to expect prices to increase during the next twelve months (−1 point). The corresponding balance stays clearly above its long term average.

Graph4Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE

Revision

Due to the actualisation of the seasonal adjustment coefficients (CVS), the synthetic index of May 2018 was revised downwards by one point: it now stands at 99.

TableCONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances (Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted) -
Avg. (1) March 18 April 18 May 18 June 18
Synthetic index (2) 100 100 100 99 97
Financial sit., past 12 m. –21 –24 –26 –24 –26
Financial sit., next 12 m. –5 –12 –12 –13 –13
Current saving capacity 8 9 10 10 11
Expected saving capacity –9 –8 –9 –3 –9
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 17 5 4 8 8
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. –14 –6 –4 –5 –9
Standard of living, past 12 m. –45 –39 –37 –40 –44
Standard of living, next 12 m. –25 –24 –23 –27 –32
Unemployment, next 12 m. 34 3 5 0 18
Consumer prices, past 12 m. –17 –38 –38 –29 –25
Consumer prices, next 12 m. –34 –24 –26 –19 –20
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2017
  • (2) The indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2017).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)


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